FRANKFURT – Euro area rate-setters are off to the Italian tourist haven Florence for this month’s monetary policy decision, and one analyst said those who monitor the European Central Bank for a living can spend their Thursday focused on something else.
“If you’ve ever thought about skipping an ECB meeting, this is the one to sit out,” wrote ING’s Carsten Brzeski, who went on to cite various reasons why this week’s meeting is a non-event.
Atop that list was a lack of new data since last month’s rate decision, giving officials almost nothing to act upon. Policymakers are still looking at September’s inflation numbers. The annual headline rate of 2.2% is unlikely to warrant action as it remains close enough to the ECB target of 2.0% over the medium term. And the initial October number is not due until Friday. Additionally, third-quarter GDP data from the Eurozone is set for release just hours ahead of the ECB decision.
Some of the October data that has emerged – stronger Eurozone PMI numbers and improved German business sentiment – supports a hold.
Brzeski noted that the political and fiscal situation in Paris has settled enough for ECB officials to push it to the back burner. And hawks have been flexing their muscles in public, with new Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher noting there was an “equal chance” for a rate cut or hike as the next ECB move.
“The most often heard comments simply reiterate the now familiar sentiment that the ECB is in a ‘good place,’ with little urgency to adjust rates,” Brzeski said.
It’s done (Or is it?)
Like many others before them, Deutsche Bank has called it: “We assume that the rate-cutting cycle is over, and no further easing is to be expected in the foreseeable future. Financial markets also only price in 12 basis points of easing for the next 12 months, which corresponds to an implied probability of just under 50% for a further rate cut.
“In contrast, we consider a first rate hike of 25 bps possible as early as the end of 2026. German fiscal policy and structural labor market bottlenecks could lead to upward pressure on service inflation and thus on core inflation overall.”
Germany plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn or more on its military, infrastructure, and programmes for climate protection, investments set to spur growth in Europe’s largest economy and beyond.
While Deutsche Bank has moved on to trying to predict the start of the hike cycle, Brzeski cautioned that another cut could be coming before year’s end.
“There are still some valid dovish arguments that could still force the central bank to cut once again at the December meeting,” Brzeski said. “Just think of the delayed adverse impact of US tariffs, the stronger euro exchange rate, French politics or a delay in Germany’s fiscal stimulus. If any of these downside risks materialise, we can expect the ECB to engage in one or two more rate cuts.”
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session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
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session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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function start_log() {
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session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
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session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
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data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
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data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
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data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
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- Is cut cycle over?
- Multiple variables threaten current policy
- ECB decision due Thursday at 13:15 GMT / 14:15 CET
- Press conference set for 13:45 GMT / 14:45 CET
By Eric Culp
European Editor, LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
29 October 2025 | 11:30 GMT
FRANKFURT – Euro area rate-setters are off to the Italian tourist haven Florence for this month’s monetary policy decision, and one analyst said those who monitor the European Central Bank for a living can spend their Thursday focused on something else.
“If you’ve ever thought about skipping an ECB meeting, this is the one to sit out,” wrote ING’s Carsten Brzeski, who went on to cite various reasons why this week’s meeting is a non-event.
Atop that list was a lack of new data since last month’s rate decision, giving officials almost nothing to act upon. Policymakers are still looking at September’s inflation numbers. The annual headline rate of 2.2% is unlikely to warrant action as it remains close enough to the ECB target of 2.0% over the medium term. And the initial October number is not due until Friday. Additionally, third-quarter GDP data from the Eurozone is set for release just hours ahead of the ECB decision.
Some of the October data that has emerged – stronger Eurozone PMI numbers and improved German business sentiment – supports a hold.
Brzeski noted that the political and fiscal situation in Paris has settled enough for ECB officials to push it to the back burner. And hawks have been flexing their muscles in public, with new Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher noting there was an “equal chance” for a rate cut or hike as the next ECB move.
“The most often heard comments simply reiterate the now familiar sentiment that the ECB is in a ‘good place,’ with little urgency to adjust rates,” Brzeski said.
It’s done (Or is it?)
Like many others before them, Deutsche Bank has called it: “We assume that the rate-cutting cycle is over, and no further easing is to be expected in the foreseeable future. Financial markets also only price in 12 basis points of easing for the next 12 months, which corresponds to an implied probability of just under 50% for a further rate cut.
“In contrast, we consider a first rate hike of 25 bps possible as early as the end of 2026. German fiscal policy and structural labor market bottlenecks could lead to upward pressure on service inflation and thus on core inflation overall.”
Germany plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn or more on its military, infrastructure, and programmes for climate protection, investments set to spur growth in Europe’s largest economy and beyond.
While Deutsche Bank has moved on to trying to predict the start of the hike cycle, Brzeski cautioned that another cut could be coming before year’s end.
“There are still some valid dovish arguments that could still force the central bank to cut once again at the December meeting,” Brzeski said. “Just think of the delayed adverse impact of US tariffs, the stronger euro exchange rate, French politics or a delay in Germany’s fiscal stimulus. If any of these downside risks materialise, we can expect the ECB to engage in one or two more rate cuts.”
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