June 2021: The New York Fed Staff UIG Measures

• The UIG "full data set" measure for May is currently estimated at 3.2%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month.
• The "prices-only" measure for May is currently estimated at 3.1%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month.
• The twelve-month change in the May CPI was +5.0%, a 0.8 percentage point increase from the previous month.

- For May 2021, trend CPI inflation is estimated to be in the 3.1% to 3.2% range. The width of the range is smaller than in April, with both bounds higher than they were in April. Note that the COVID-19 outbreak continues to impact data collection for the CPI release.

On Jun 18, 08:51 AM, E-mini S&P 500 price declined 1% from its previous close. This has occurred 12 times over the last 12 months.

75% (9 out of these 12 times), the price has increased 5 hours later by an average of 21.31 points. The maximum price increase has been 53.0 points.

3 times out of 12, the price has decreased 5 hours later by an average of 46.75 points. The maximum decrease in price has been 108.75 points.

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As the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the economy last spring, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation fell dramatically. One year later, the opposite is occurring, with core PCE inflation surpassing 3%.

Is this recent upward inflation pressure transitory, representing pandemic-related price movements? Or is this an indication of more persistent broad-based inflation trends? Continue Reading

On Jun 18, 07:22 AM, E-mini Dow price declined 1% from its previous close. This has occurred 14 times over the last 12 months.

64% (9 out of these 14 times), the price has increased 5 hours later by an average of 179.56 points. The maximum price increase has been 423.0 points.

5 times out of 14, the price has decreased 5 hours later by an average of 236.4 points. The maximum decrease in price has been 652.0 points.

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US equity futures fell while Treasuries reversed an early gain after a Fed official said the central bank officially opened discussions on tapering.

Contracts on the S&P 500 Index fell 0.5% while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 turned lower, reversing an earlier gain.

In an interview on CNBC, St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the central bank has started discussing scaling back the pace of pandemic bond-buying.

Some volatility may be possible later when options and futures on indexes and equities expire, an event known as “triple witching.”

Adobe (ADBE) – Reported quarterly profit of $3.03 per share, 21 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also topped Wall Street forecasts and Adobe gave stronger-than-expected current-quarter guidance.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) – The stock added in the premarket following a double upgrade at Wolfe Research to “outperform” from “underperform.” Wolfe said it sees business travel benefiting from pent-up demand later this summer, although it does not think it will return to pre-Covid levels.

ArcelorMittal (MT) – Sold its remaining 38.2 million shares of steel producer Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF). The mining company will use the proceeds to fund a $750 million share buyback. Arcelor-Mittal rose in premarket action, while Cleveland-Cliffs added.

Carnival (CCL) – Disclosed a March data breach that may have exposed personal information of customers of its Carnival, Holland America and Princess brands. It did not disclose how many may have been affected.

Hasbro (HAS), Mattel (MAT) – On watch following a New York Post report warning of a potential toy shortage this coming holiday season. The paper said thousands of toys ready for shipment remain stockpiled in China due to the lack of shipping containers available for export.

Biogen (BIIB) – Upgraded to “overweight” from “neutral” at Piper Sandler, which cites a number of factors including the likelihood that doctors will prescribe Biogen’s newly approved Alzheimer’s drug Aduhelm. Biogen shares rose in the premarket.

Citigroup (C) – The bank’s stock remains on watch after declining for the past 11 consecutive trading days, losing 14% over that time.

Fox Corp (FOXA) – Increased its stock repurchase program by $2 billion to a total of $4 billion, helping to send its shares higher in the premarket.