The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting takes place this week, with political leaders, business executives, civil society and academics convening in Davos to set priorities and discuss forward-looking solutions to global challenges.
Markets appear somewhat caught in the headlights amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Ahead of the weekend, US President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on eight European nations, extending his confrontational trade stance and renewing his rhetoric about Greenland.
In France, political risk remains elevated, with another vote of no confidence likely as the government seeks to push through its budget.
Turning to macro data and central banks, the key releases will be the US PCE inflation report and the publication of the European Central Bank’s December meeting accounts. Barclays said the minutes should offer further insight into the Governing Council’s assessment of the latest Eurosystem projections, particularly the balance of risks around the inflation outlook.
Elsewhere, monetary policy decisions are due from Norway, Turkey and Japan. In the US, however, the Federal Reserve enters its media blackout period from 17–29 January ahead of this month’s FOMC meeting.
Finally, it is a long weekend for US investors, with markets closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.
All Times Are GMT
Monday 19 January
02:00 - Mainland China Q4 GDP Consensus: Q/Q 1.1% (prev 1.1%)
HSBC said it expected GDP grew 4.4% y/y, or 1.3% q/q in Q4, bringing full-year GDP growth to 4.9% y/y, achieving policymakers' target of around 5%. The bank said exports showed resilience, rising 3.9% y/y in Q4 despite a high base, supported by trade restructuring, improved US-China relations, and demand for high-tech products. “While goods consumption softened in Q4 due to a high base from trade-in programs, service consumption still has significant potential to grow and may receive further policy backing.”
13:30 – Canada Nov CPI/Core Median Consensus: Y/Y 2.3% (prev 2.3%)/2.7% (prev 2.8%)
BofA forecasts CPI to fall -0.2% in December after rising 0.1% in November. “We expect downside pressures from recreation, education and reading, as well as from clothing and footwear. However, we see risks to the downside due to the falling prices of gasoline.”
Speakers: --:--
Tuesday 20 January
01:00 – China PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate Consensus: On Hold (prev 3.00%)
Barclays said that given China's GDP growth is still production based, bank analysts estimate the slow but still solid industrial production growth suggested moderation in Q4 GDP growth may not be as rapid as the demand indicators suggest. “We see upside risks to our Q4 GDP growth forecast of 4% y/y. President Xi noted on 31 December that the economy remains on track to meet the “around 5%” growth target.”
07:00 - UK Nov Labour Force Survey Consensus: AWE 4.6% (prev 4.7%)
SocGen’s analysts expect the three-month unemployment rate to edge down to 5.0% in November, with employment rising by around 35k, following a soft single-month print in October. However, the bank cautions that such an increase would sit uneasily with other labour-market indicators, as PAYE employment has been in decline since mid-2024, a signal corroborated by alternative surveys such as the DMP and REC.
“Wage pressures are expected to cool further, with private-sector regular pay seen slowing to 3.7% y/y, the weakest since late-2020, and surveys pointing to wage growth of around 3.5% y/y in 2026,” the analysts said.
Speakers:
Wednesday 21 January
07:00 - UK Dec CPI/Core CPI Consensus:
Deutsche Bank expects December inflation to take a small step up to end the year. But analysts said much will depend on the timing of the ONS' price collection, adding to heightened uncertainty for the final print for 2026. “Given our expectations for a late collection period, we expect some added upward volatility - particularly across the services basket. Headline CPI, we project, will rise to 3.4% y/y, with core CPI up to 3.3% y/y. Services CPI, we think, will move to 4.6% y/y on the back of stronger travel and hotel prices. RPI, we think, will edge up to 4.2% y/y.”
00:30 – Australia Dec Labour Force Survey Consensus: Empl. Change 27.0k (prev -21.3k)
Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said the labour market remains in good shape despite some recent weakness in employment growth. “The notoriously volatile survey resulted in a fall of employment of ~27k in November, and a punchy 0.2ppt fall in the participation rate”, experts wrote in a client note. “Our analysis shows moves of this magnitude are often reversed in the following month. As such, we anticipate a strong result in December of 35k growth in employment and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at a low 4.3%.”
09:00 - Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision Consensus: On Hold (prev 4.00%)
Danske Bank predicted Norges Bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.00% at the monetary policy meeting next week. “We also believe that they will signal that there is some time until the next rate cut, so that the threshold for a cut in March is high. This would be in line with the signals given at the December meeting.” Bank experts posited that with unemployment printing marginally below expectations and inflation marginally above forecasts for December, the risk is tilted towards a somewhat more hawkish message than in December. It should be noted that this will be an interim meeting, without new economic projections, but with a press release and a press conference.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said they expect the Central Bank of Turkey to ease its key policy rate by 150bp to 36.50%. “We believe risks surrounding inflation in data early 2026 would offset the marginal improvement in underlying inflation trends. Further ahead, we continue to expect the policy rate to reach 26.50% at year-end.”
15:00 - US Nov PCE/Core PCEPrice Index Consensus: 2.8% (prev )/ 2.8% (prev )
BMO expect another relatively benign PCE inflation report largely in line with the November CPI release. “We forecast overall PCE prices were up 0.2% m/m with the year-on-year rate staying near 2.8%. The core deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, also likely rose 0.2% in the month, keeping the year-on-year rate somewhat elevated at 2.8%,” said chief US economist Scott Anderson.
23:30 - Japan Dec CPI Consensus: 2.1% (prev 2.9%)
BofA -- For December nationwide CPI, we expect Japan-style core CPI (ex fresh food) to fall sharply to +2.5% YoY from +3.0% previously, as indicated by Tokyo CPI. Lower energy prices, partly due to expanded gasoline subsidies ahead of tax cuts, will dampen core inflation. BoJ-core CPI (ex fresh food and energy) should also ease to +2.8% YoY from +3.0%, driven mainly by negative base effects in food prices.
Speakers: BoE’s Ramsden
Friday 23 January
N/A – BoJ Interest Rate Decision Consensus: On Hold (prev 0.75%)
ING expects the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged at 0.75%, with markets focused on Governor Ueda’s assessment of how recent JPY weakness feeds through to inflation. Updated outlook projections are likely to show stronger GDP growth in FY25–FY26, supported by fiscal stimulus and robust global semiconductor demand, with export growth led by chips and autos.
While energy subsidies should temporarily dampen inflation, ING sees core inflation remaining above 2% in FY26–FY27, underpinned by higher wages and a weaker currency, leaving the BoJ open to further rate hikes. That said, policymakers are unlikely to rush, as inflation is expected to moderate by H126. A rebound in Q425 GDP is also anticipated, driven by exports and recovering investment.
07:00 - UK Dec Retail Sales Consensus: M/M 0.0% (prev -0.1%)
SocGen posited that November and December are critical months for retailers, as consumers typically increase spending ahead of Christmas and take advantage of Black Friday promotions. “However, if our forecast is realised, both months will show outright declines, with retail sales falling to their lowest level since July. While uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget likely contributed, rising unemployment, keeping precautionary savings elevated, has played a more dominant role, a trend we expect to persist into early next year.”
09:00 - Eurozone HCOB Jan Composite PMI Index (Flash) Consensus: 51.9 (prev 51.5)
Daiwa said January’s flash euro area release will provide the first major signal as to whether the slightly firmer growth momentum suggested last quarter was sustained into the new year. “Admittedly, while Q4's results were consistent with expansion - the composite output PMI rose in each member state on average versus Q3, and by some 1.25pts for the aggregate euro area - December's survey still underwhelmed,” noted bank analysts. “The composite euro area PMI fell to a three-month low, down 1.3pts to 51.5, led by a pullback in German and Italian manufacturing. Activity in France was also reportedly stagnant. But given the recent poor form of the PMIs in predicting GDP growth in that member state, INSEE's more comprehensive survey (also due Friday) should warrant attention too.”
The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting takes place this week, with political leaders, business executives, civil society and academics convening in Davos to set priorities and discuss forward-looking solutions to global challenges.
Markets appear somewhat caught in the headlights amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Ahead of the weekend, US President Donald Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on eight European nations, extending his confrontational trade stance and renewing his rhetoric about Greenland.
In France, political risk remains elevated, with another vote of no confidence likely as the government seeks to push through its budget.
Turning to macro data and central banks, the key releases will be the US PCE inflation report and the publication of the European Central Bank’s December meeting accounts. Barclays said the minutes should offer further insight into the Governing Council’s assessment of the latest Eurosystem projections, particularly the balance of risks around the inflation outlook.
Elsewhere, monetary policy decisions are due from Norway, Turkey and Japan. In the US, however, the Federal Reserve enters its media blackout period from 17–29 January ahead of this month’s FOMC meeting.
Finally, it is a long weekend for US investors, with markets closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.
All Times Are GMT
02:00 - Mainland China Q4 GDP
Consensus: Q/Q 1.1% (prev 1.1%)
HSBC said it expected GDP grew 4.4% y/y, or 1.3% q/q in Q4, bringing full-year GDP growth to 4.9% y/y, achieving policymakers' target of around 5%. The bank said exports showed resilience, rising 3.9% y/y in Q4 despite a high base, supported by trade restructuring, improved US-China relations, and demand for high-tech products. “While goods consumption softened in Q4 due to a high base from trade-in programs, service consumption still has significant potential to grow and may receive further policy
backing.”
13:30 – Canada Nov CPI/Core Median
Consensus: Y/Y 2.3% (prev 2.3%)/2.7% (prev 2.8%)
BofA forecasts CPI to fall -0.2% in December after rising 0.1% in November. “We expect downside pressures from recreation, education and reading, as well as from clothing and footwear. However, we see risks to the downside due to the falling prices of gasoline.”
Speakers: --:--
01:00 – China PBoC 1-Year Loan Prime Rate
Consensus: On Hold (prev 3.00%)
Barclays said that given China's GDP growth is still production based, bank analysts estimate the slow but still solid industrial production growth suggested moderation in Q4 GDP growth may not be as rapid as the demand indicators suggest. “We see upside risks to our Q4 GDP growth forecast of 4% y/y. President Xi noted on 31 December that the economy remains on track to meet the “around 5%” growth target.”
07:00 - UK Nov Labour Force Survey
Consensus: AWE 4.6% (prev 4.7%)
SocGen’s analysts expect the three-month unemployment rate to edge down to 5.0% in November, with employment rising by around 35k, following a soft single-month print in October. However, the bank cautions that such an increase would sit uneasily with other labour-market indicators, as PAYE employment has been in decline since mid-2024, a signal corroborated by alternative surveys such as the DMP and REC.
“Wage pressures are expected to cool further, with private-sector regular pay seen slowing to 3.7% y/y, the weakest since late-2020, and surveys pointing to wage growth of around 3.5% y/y in 2026,” the analysts said.
Speakers:
07:00 - UK Dec CPI/Core CPI
Consensus:
Deutsche Bank expects December inflation to take a small step up to end the year. But analysts said much will depend on the timing of the ONS' price collection, adding to heightened uncertainty for the final print for 2026. “Given our expectations for a late collection period, we expect some added upward volatility - particularly across the services basket. Headline CPI, we project, will rise to 3.4% y/y, with core CPI up to 3.3% y/y. Services CPI, we think, will move to 4.6% y/y on the back of stronger travel
and hotel prices. RPI, we think, will edge up to 4.2% y/y.”
Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde, Nagel, Villeroy| SNB’s Schlegel
00:30 – Australia Dec Labour Force Survey
Consensus: Empl. Change 27.0k (prev -21.3k)
Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said the labour market remains in good shape despite some recent weakness in employment growth. “The notoriously volatile survey resulted in a fall of employment of ~27k in November, and a punchy 0.2ppt fall in the participation rate”, experts wrote in a client note. “Our analysis shows moves of this magnitude are often reversed in the following month. As such, we anticipate a strong result in December of 35k growth in employment and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at a low 4.3%.”
09:00 - Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: On Hold (prev 4.00%)
Danske Bank predicted Norges Bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.00% at the monetary policy meeting next week. “We also believe that they will signal that there is some time until the next rate cut, so that the threshold for a cut in March is high. This would be in line with the signals given at the December meeting.” Bank experts posited that with unemployment printing marginally below expectations and inflation marginally above forecasts for December, the risk is tilted towards a somewhat more hawkish message than in December. It should be noted that this will be an interim meeting, without new economic projections, but with a press release and a press conference.
11:00 – Türkiye CBT Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: 150bps Cut (prev 38.00%)
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said they expect the Central Bank of Turkey to ease its key policy rate by 150bp to 36.50%. “We believe risks surrounding inflation in data early 2026 would offset the marginal improvement in underlying inflation trends. Further ahead, we continue to expect the policy rate to reach 26.50% at year-end.”
15:00 - US Nov PCE/Core PCEPrice Index
Consensus: 2.8% (prev )/ 2.8% (prev )
BMO expect another relatively benign PCE inflation report largely in line with the November CPI release. “We forecast overall PCE prices were up 0.2% m/m with the year-on-year rate staying near 2.8%. The core deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, also likely rose 0.2% in the month, keeping the year-on-year rate somewhat elevated at 2.8%,” said chief US economist Scott Anderson.
23:30 - Japan Dec CPI
Consensus: 2.1% (prev 2.9%)
BofA -- For December nationwide CPI, we expect Japan-style core CPI (ex fresh food) to fall sharply to +2.5% YoY from +3.0% previously, as indicated by Tokyo CPI. Lower energy prices, partly due to expanded gasoline subsidies ahead of tax cuts, will dampen core inflation. BoJ-core CPI (ex fresh food and energy) should also ease to +2.8% YoY from +3.0%, driven mainly by negative base effects in food prices.
Speakers: BoE’s Ramsden
N/A – BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: On Hold (prev 0.75%)
ING expects the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged at 0.75%, with markets focused on Governor Ueda’s assessment of how recent JPY weakness feeds through to inflation. Updated outlook projections are likely to show stronger GDP growth in FY25–FY26, supported by fiscal stimulus and robust global semiconductor demand, with export growth led by chips and autos.
While energy subsidies should temporarily dampen inflation, ING sees core inflation remaining above 2% in FY26–FY27, underpinned by higher wages and a weaker currency, leaving the BoJ open to further rate hikes. That said, policymakers are unlikely to rush, as inflation is expected to moderate by H126. A rebound in Q425 GDP is also anticipated, driven by exports and recovering investment.
07:00 - UK Dec Retail Sales
Consensus: M/M 0.0% (prev -0.1%)
SocGen posited that November and December are critical months for retailers, as consumers typically increase spending ahead of Christmas and take advantage of Black Friday promotions. “However, if our forecast is realised, both months will show outright declines, with retail sales falling to their lowest level since July. While uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget likely contributed, rising unemployment, keeping precautionary savings elevated, has played a more dominant role, a trend we expect to persist into early next year.”
09:00 - Eurozone HCOB Jan Composite PMI Index (Flash)
Consensus: 51.9 (prev 51.5)
Daiwa said January’s flash euro area release will provide the first major signal as to whether the slightly firmer growth momentum suggested last quarter was sustained into the new year. “Admittedly, while Q4's results were consistent with expansion - the composite output PMI rose in each member state on average versus Q3, and by some 1.25pts for the aggregate euro area - December's survey still underwhelmed,” noted bank analysts. “The composite euro area PMI fell to a three-month low, down 1.3pts to 51.5, led by a pullback in German and Italian manufacturing. Activity in France was also reportedly stagnant. But given the recent poor form of the PMIs in predicting GDP growth in that member state, INSEE's more comprehensive survey (also due Friday) should warrant attention too.”
Speakers: BoJ's Ueda | BoE’s Greene | ECB’s Lagarde