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The Canadian Loonie weakened after a surprise drop in the north American country’s retail sales arrested a three-month run of increases, data from Statistics Canada showed on Thursday.
Headline December retail sales sank by 0.8pct m/m, versus an already expected 0.1pct decline and an upwardly revised print of 0.3pct for November. It was the steepest decline in retail trade since December 2015. Sales were down for general merchandise (-5.3pct); health and personal care (-3.8pct) and electronics and appliances (-9.1pct).
Excluding autos, retail sales fell by 1.8pct m/m versus an expected flat read and versus an upwardly revised 1.7pct in November. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)
The minutes of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council Meeting on 24-25 January revealed divisions among members about changing the language of its forward guidance, but in the end, the majority ruled.
“Some members expressed a preference for dropping the easing bias regarding the APP from the Governing Council’s communication as a tangible reflection of reinforced confidence in a sustained adjustment of the path of inflation,” the account said. “However, it was concluded that such an adjustment was premature and not yet justified.”
The minutes repeated earlier statements that the language on ECB monetary policy could be revisited early this year as part of its regular reassessment. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)
The second estimate of Q4 2017 GDP revealed the UK grew at a slower pace than first thought, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Thursday.
The headline Q4 q/q printed 0.4pct, dashing an analysts median forecast of 0.5pct and the preliminary estimate of 0.5pct. The y/y growth rate was also revised lower to 1.4pct from 1.5pct expected and last estimated.
What is more, between 2016 and 2017 activity grew by 1.7pct, marked down 0.1pct from the preliminary estimate, which was slightly lower than the 1.9pct growth seen between 2015 and 2016 -and now at its lowest level since 2012. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)
Canadian retail sales are headed for a sharp slowdown when December data is released on Thursday at 1330 GMT as recent rate hikes start to take their toll on consumer spending.
Retail sales are seen slowing to a flat read, excluding autos, m/m in December from a 1.6pct rise in November. Including autos, retail sales are seen falling by 0.1pct m/m, versus a 0.2pct rise in November.
The numbers, if they prevail, will dent the 6.5pct y/y growth in retail sales seen in November.
But in context, the November data was much stronger than expected as a late surge of spending, benefiting from Black Friday deals countered a spate of Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hikes that began last July. Month-on-month retail sales, ex autos, surged by 1.6pct in November from 0.8pct in October and well above a 0.9pct forecast. It was the strongest print since January 2017. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)
Monthly Canadian inflation is likely to have jumped in January, data released on Friday at 1330 GMT is expected to show, but just by how much could help determine the pace of future central bank rate hikes.
Consumer prices are expected to advance by 0.5pct m/m in January, reversing a 0.4pct decline in December. The annual CPI rate, however, is seen rising by 1.5pct – a significantly lower pace than the 1.9pct recorded in December when it was at the door of what prompts the central bank to get nervous for price stability.
The monthly fall in December was the first dip since a 0.1pct decline in June 2017. The annual rate also hit a recent trough of 1.0pct in June last year. Annual CPI has been in positive territory since late 2010. Before that, deflation of as much as 1.0pct was the order in the depths of the global financial and sovereign debt crisis. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)
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