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Economists say the results of the April Ifo monthly survey will show a decrease in optimism among German business leaders, and the economic indicators will for the first time include the German service sector when they are released Tuesday at 0800 GMT.
Ifo said that starting this month, it will include responses from service company leaders in the survey results as the sector is now Germany’s largest. The institute added that beginning with the April data, it will update the base year to 2015 from 2005.
Economists said they expect the business climate indicator to fall to 102.8 from March’s 103.2 reading, which was adjusted down from 114.7 due to the change in the base year. According to the new methods of calculation, a decline in April would be the fifth straight for the headline indicator, which hit a record high of 105.1 in November. (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)
Hedge funds investing in oil are luring capital at the fastest pace in more than a year.
With crude climbing to levels not seen since 2014, commodity funds have recovered the client outflows they suffered last year. And if firms such as Westbeck Capital Management and Commodities World Capital are correct about prices soon exceeding $80 a barrel from about $68 currently, then the jump in allocations may just the beginning.
Until Friday everything seemed to point to oil extending its gains, with confidence in the global economy building and geopolitical tensions and production shortages showing no signs of going away. Then U.S. President Donald Trump slammed OPEC on Twitter, saying prices are artificially high and will not be accepted. Prices slipped 19 cent a barrel. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)
Few things strike fear in the hearts of grizzled bond traders like the whiff of inflation. They can deal with rising interest rates -- remember then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's conundrum? -- but there's nothing they can do to prevent faster inflation from eroding the value of their fixed-interest payments over time and making the bonds they hold worth much less.
And judging by the recent action in the market for U.S. Treasuries, bond traders are running scared. Yields on the benchmark 10-year note are once again bumping up against the psychologically important 3 percent level. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)
Theresa May is battling to avert a cabinet revolt amid fears from euroskeptic Tories that she’ll break her promise to take the U.K. out of the European Union’s trade regime.
May’s inner circle thinks she could be forced to accept staying in the EU’s customs union because Parliament will reject her plan to withdraw from it when the issue comes to a vote in the House of Commons, according to one official. Such a move could trigger a challenge to May’s leadership from Brexit campaigners in the Conservative Party. (Bloomberg - Continue Reading)
Expectations among the British public for higher interest rates in the near future cooled in mid-April, even before comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney last week muddied the outlook, a survey showed on Monday.
The IHS Markit Household Finance Index showed 28 percent of Britons expected the BoE to raise rates over the next three months, down from 33 percent in March. (Reuters - Continue Reading)
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