The euro area economy likely produced minimal expansion in the third quarter after a like showing in the previous three-month period as the world’s trade environment continued to suffer dramatic shifts.
An economists’ poll said quarterly GDP growth in the Eurozone rose 0.1% last quarter after increasing by that amount in the previous three months.
Also due with the preliminary data report Thursday is the year-on-year rate, with a Q3 rise of 1.2% expected following 1.5% in the previous three months.
“Q3 GDP is expected to post a flat reading, as weakness in exports to the US weighs further on the external sector, while the domestic economy has also lost some momentum based on incoming activity data,” ABN Amro predicted.
Danske Bank was in-line with the market. “We estimate growth of 0.1% q/q as in Q2, after the strong Q1 driven not least by export to the US ahead of the tariff hikes.”
TD Securities echoed the sentiment. “After out-performing in Q1 2025, we expect euro area growth to repeat Q2's 0.1% gain as the impact of tariffs continues to weigh on activity. Germany likely remained flat on the quarter, but after a 0.3% q/q decline in Q2, a negative print here would confirm the country's slip into recession.”
Ups and downs due from Eurozone Big Four
The market consensus pointed to a flat reading from Germany, which is due to announce its results Thursday at 09:00 GMT, just an hour before the release of the Eurozone number.
French GDP growth, due Thursday at 06:30 GMT, is forecast to have decelerated to 0.1% from 0.3% in Q2.
Italy, due to report at 09:00 GMT, is expected to have exited the red last quarter with a reading of 0.1% versus the 0.1% contraction in Q2.
Spain, the surprising growth leader as of late amongst the euro area’s four largest economies, said Wednesday that its GDP expansion slowed to 0.6% from 0.8% last quarter.
Germany to the rescue?
Both Danske and TD noted that the October PMI data pointed to more growth in the months ahead, good news for Q4. Economists largely agree that support for the Eurozone economy will come from Berlin’s plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn or more on its military, infrastructure, and programmes for climate protection.
Citing expected support from the German investments, the IMF earlier this month raised its growth outlook for the euro area this year to 1.2% from the 1.0% forecast in July. However, it lowered its 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.2% on concerns about political and fiscal issues in France, the second-largest economy in the Eurozone.
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- Quarterly rate projected at 0.1% (prev 0.1%)
- Germany flirts with recession
- Spain reports slower growth
- Berlin investments to lift all boats?
- Data due Thursday at 10:00 GMT / 11 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
An economists’ poll said quarterly GDP growth in the Eurozone rose 0.1% last quarter after increasing by that amount in the previous three months.
Also due with the preliminary data report Thursday is the year-on-year rate, with a Q3 rise of 1.2% expected following 1.5% in the previous three months.
“Q3 GDP is expected to post a flat reading, as weakness in exports to the US weighs further on the external sector, while the domestic economy has also lost some momentum based on incoming activity data,” ABN Amro predicted.
Danske Bank was in-line with the market. “We estimate growth of 0.1% q/q as in Q2, after the strong Q1 driven not least by export to the US ahead of the tariff hikes.”
TD Securities echoed the sentiment. “After out-performing in Q1 2025, we expect euro area growth to repeat Q2's 0.1% gain as the impact of tariffs continues to weigh on activity. Germany likely remained flat on the quarter, but after a 0.3% q/q decline in Q2, a negative print here would confirm the country's slip into recession.”
Ups and downs due from Eurozone Big Four
The market consensus pointed to a flat reading from Germany, which is due to announce its results Thursday at 09:00 GMT, just an hour before the release of the Eurozone number.
French GDP growth, due Thursday at 06:30 GMT, is forecast to have decelerated to 0.1% from 0.3% in Q2.
Italy, due to report at 09:00 GMT, is expected to have exited the red last quarter with a reading of 0.1% versus the 0.1% contraction in Q2.
Spain, the surprising growth leader as of late amongst the euro area’s four largest economies, said Wednesday that its GDP expansion slowed to 0.6% from 0.8% last quarter.
Germany to the rescue?
Both Danske and TD noted that the October PMI data pointed to more growth in the months ahead, good news for Q4. Economists largely agree that support for the Eurozone economy will come from Berlin’s plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn or more on its military, infrastructure, and programmes for climate protection.
Citing expected support from the German investments, the IMF earlier this month raised its growth outlook for the euro area this year to 1.2% from the 1.0% forecast in July. However, it lowered its 2026 forecast to 1.1% from 1.2% on concerns about political and fiscal issues in France, the second-largest economy in the Eurozone.
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