Eurozone Inflation Set To Ease As Analysts Say ECB Cut Cycle Is Done
(Photo: Culp)

- October headline measure forecast at 2.1% y/y (prev 2.2%)

- Core rate projected at 2.3% y/y (prev 2.4%)

- Germany state inflation sends mixed signals

- Data due Friday at 10:00 GMT / 11:00 CEST

By Eric Culp, European Editor

LiveSquawk News

@eculp.bsky.social

@EricCulpLS

 

30 October 2025 | 09:50 GMT

 

October’s rate of headline consumer price growth in the euro area is forecast to move closer to the level preferred by the European Central Bank, which has probably ended its cycle of interest rate cuts, according to observers.

 

An economists’ poll predicted that the annual Eurozone headline inflation rate this month slipped a tenth to 2.1%, which would put it just above the ECB’s target of 2% over the medium term.

 

The less-volatile core rate was set to fall a tenth to 2.3% y/y, observers said.

 

The forecast from TD Securities put this month’s rate at 2.0%. “The ECB will welcome a return to its 2% target for headline inflation, even if core inflation remains a little too sticky above, though it doesn't seem to be stressing it too much.”

 

Not stressing, indeed. Euro zone monetary policymakers were widely expected to metaphorically sit on their hands Thursday by leaving interest rates at current levels. Deutsche Bank said this strategy could continue into late next year, when officials might decide to hike interest rates.

 

Eurozone Big Four trends largely lower 

 

Initial announcement from states in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, offered mixed results, with the two largest in terms of business activity producing higher and lower rates of consumer price growth. The national number for EU annual harmonised inflation due at 13:00 GMT Thursday is expected to ease to 2.3% from 2.4% last month, economists said.

 

Spain, the euro area’s fourth-largest country, said Thursday that its EU annual harmonised rate to 3.2% from September’s 3.0%, which was also the forecast 3.0%.

 

France, the second-largest economy, reports early Friday (07:45 GMT) and is forecast to announce a rate of 1.0% versus 1.1% in September.

 

Italy, the third-largest economy, is to release its data concurrently with the Eurozone number, and analysts predicted that its rate declined to 1.7% from 1.8%

 

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