The rate of headline consumer price growth in the euro area is forecast to slip below the level preferred by the European Central Bank, which has likely ended its cycle of interest rate cuts, according to a number of analysts.
An economists’ poll predicted that the annual Eurozone headline inflation rate eased to 1.9% this month from 2.0% in June. That would put it below the ECB’s target of 2% over the medium term.
The less-volatile core rate is set to fall a tenth to 2.2% y/y, observers said.
“We are expecting headline inflation to soften a bit in July to 1.92% (in line with market pricing) as base effects in the non-oil component should offset price pressures coming from rising fuel prices, pulling energy inflation lower,” Deutsche Bank wrote. “After July, headline HICP should rise back towards 2% for the next few months. We project core HICP will remain unchanged in July at 2.3%y/y. We also see services inflation holding steady at 3.2% as an increase in tourism services prices would counteract downward pressures from other items in the basket.”
The ECB has been cutting its key interest rates for more than a year but decided to leave rates unchanged last week after seven straight reductions. With inflation expected to remain near the target, and a tentative EU-US trade agreement concluded over the weekend, analysts at Deutsche Bank, Nomura, and Commerzbank have joined those suggesting that the ECB is done lowering rates. Better-than-expected Eurozone growth last quarter is also supporting such arguments.
Major economies send mixed signals
Preliminary consumer price data from the four largest Eurozone economies offered no clear message on the overall reading for the currency area. On Thursday, Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, said its EU annual harmonised inflation fell to 1.8% from 2.0% in June, a larger decline than the forecast of 1.9%.
Earlier in the day, Italy announced a slowdown in consumer price growth to 1.7%, which followed a rise of 1.8% in June and outpaced the forecast of 1.6%.
France, the second-largest economy, was the first to announce inflation data Thursday, reporting an increase of 0.9%, which was unchanged from June’s reading and above the estimate of 0.8%.
Spain, the four-largest economy, said Wednesday that its annual headline rate matched the market forecast of 2.7%, well above the 2.3% reported in June.
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/*jshint esversion: 6 */
var socket;
var assigned_server = 3001;
var distributor_server = 3010;
var publisher_channel = '';
var broadcaster_channel = '';
var remote_ip = '';
var session_info = {};
var logging_interval;
var logging_interval_time = 120000;
var socket_emits = 0;
var session_start_time;
var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2;
var reconnection_delay = 1000;
var playing = false;
var connected_to_assigned = false;
var socket_close_timeout;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
self.onmessage = function (msg) {
switch(msg.data.action) {
case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break;
case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break;
case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break;
case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break;
case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break;
case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break;
case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break;
case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break;
case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break;
}
};
function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() {
clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout);
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
}
function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() {
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay );
}
function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() {
postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"});
}
function reactivate() {
playing = false;
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function player_log_response(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse';
data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final;
data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket;
data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id;
data_array.logs = data.logs;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_message_search(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_message_search';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.search_term = data.search_term;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_more_messages(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_more_messages';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function check_channel_status(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'check_channel_status';
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); }
else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); }
}
function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
}
function join_publisher_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel';
if (typeof data.api_key !== 'undefined') { data_array.api_key = data.api_key; }
else {
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group;
data_array.display_name = data.display_name;
data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
}
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) {
socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
}
function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
}
function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel;
remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
switch(data.type) {
case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break;
}
};
}
function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
}
function server_assignment_response(data) {
assigned_server = data.selected_server;
socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function request_server_assignment() {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment';
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function connect_to_assigned_server() {
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
connected_to_assigned = true;
if (playing) {
postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
}
};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ }
switch(data.type) {
case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
case 'calendar_change':
case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
case 'AppStop':
case 'BroadcasterStarted':
case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
case 'updated_cme_report':
case 'added_cme_commentary':
case 'updated_cme_commentary':
case 'server_assignment_response':
case 'initial_messages':
case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
break;
case 'output':
case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
}
};
socket.onerror = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
};
socket.onclose = function(event) {
console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason);
socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay);
reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor;
connected_to_assigned = false;
};
}
function close_socket() {
clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout);
socket_close_timeout = null;
socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
}
function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
}
function join_player_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_player_channel';
data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
}
function start_log_response(data) {
session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
}
function application_refresh_start(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); }
}
function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
}
function set_static_session_info(data) {
session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename;
session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
}
function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename;
data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name;
data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent;
data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version;
data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled;
data_array.platform = session_info.platform;
data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- July headline rate forecast at 1.9% y/y (prev 2.0%)
- Core rate projected at 2.2% y/y (prev 2.3%)
- Germany surprises to downside
- Data due Friday at 09:00 GMT / 11:00 CEST
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
31 July 2025 | 12:20 GMT
The rate of headline consumer price growth in the euro area is forecast to slip below the level preferred by the European Central Bank, which has likely ended its cycle of interest rate cuts, according to a number of analysts.
An economists’ poll predicted that the annual Eurozone headline inflation rate eased to 1.9% this month from 2.0% in June. That would put it below the ECB’s target of 2% over the medium term.
The less-volatile core rate is set to fall a tenth to 2.2% y/y, observers said.
“We are expecting headline inflation to soften a bit in July to 1.92% (in line with market pricing) as base effects in the non-oil component should offset price pressures coming from rising fuel prices, pulling energy inflation lower,” Deutsche Bank wrote. “After July, headline HICP should rise back towards 2% for the next few months. We project core HICP will remain unchanged in July at 2.3%y/y. We also see services inflation holding steady at 3.2% as an increase in tourism services prices would counteract downward pressures from other items in the basket.”
The ECB has been cutting its key interest rates for more than a year but decided to leave rates unchanged last week after seven straight reductions. With inflation expected to remain near the target, and a tentative EU-US trade agreement concluded over the weekend, analysts at Deutsche Bank, Nomura, and Commerzbank have joined those suggesting that the ECB is done lowering rates. Better-than-expected Eurozone growth last quarter is also supporting such arguments.
Major economies send mixed signals
Preliminary consumer price data from the four largest Eurozone economies offered no clear message on the overall reading for the currency area. On Thursday, Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, said its EU annual harmonised inflation fell to 1.8% from 2.0% in June, a larger decline than the forecast of 1.9%.
Earlier in the day, Italy announced a slowdown in consumer price growth to 1.7%, which followed a rise of 1.8% in June and outpaced the forecast of 1.6%.
France, the second-largest economy, was the first to announce inflation data Thursday, reporting an increase of 0.9%, which was unchanged from June’s reading and above the estimate of 0.8%.
Spain, the four-largest economy, said Wednesday that its annual headline rate matched the market forecast of 2.7%, well above the 2.3% reported in June.
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