FRANKFURT – How should one measure the level of importance of the latest European Central Bank rate decision? In the case of business news programming, Bloomberg TV had an answer: It was at commercial when Thursday’s result was announced.
The wide majority of analysts got what they predicted this week, a rate hold from officials responsible for monetary policy in the Eurozone. This left the ECB’s key interest rates at levels set in June, when the bank announced its seventh straight reduction, the eighth since starting the reduction cycle thirteen months ago.
The euro-dollar exchange rate largely ignored the news to trade around 1.175 before and after the announcement. But the pair is up more than 13% this year, dumping yet another variable for policy calculus on central bankers. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos recently warned that a level above EUR 1.20 would complicate policymaking.
The silly season, now all year round
After Thursday’s announcement and the follow-on press conference, traders were only predicting a 25% chance of a cut at the next meeting in six weeks. Normally one could mentally file that signal as the likely outcome, dispense with further worries on the subject, and scoot off obliviously on summer holiday. Not a smart move in this environment, even if reports late Thursday said the baseline position among rate-setters is a hold in September.
It’s no wonder the ECB reiterated its data-dependent, wait-and-see stance in Thursday. The global market chaos fomented by the policies of the current US administration is unprecedented in the era of commercial air travel without propellers, and concerns remain that American unpredictability could undercut or even crash global economic growth.
Europeans continue to hold their breath as their emissaries work to hammer out a trade agreement with Washington: US President Donald Trump has threatened to triple the current tariff on most EU goods by raising the rate to 30% on 1 August, a move that would add five percentage points to the present import fees on European cars, car parts, steel and aluminium. And remember, today’s duties only came into effect over the past few months.
Reports say Brussels might be willing to accept a blanket US tariff of 15%, Washington’s deal with Tokyo. But some outlets warned that certain EU officials want to unsheathe the trading bloc’s anti-coercion instrument and wreak havoc on the European-related trade and procurement practices of US producers and service providers.
The uncertainty about international commerce fuelled by Trump’s propensity to change his mind and lash out in spite hangs over the European economy like a blanket of surgery theatre anaesthesia, threatening to descend and choke-out growth.
Settling in for some spectating
The ECB has little choice but to sit back and watch how this cookie crumbles. Inflation—the focus of its writ—ticked higher last month to 2%, which matched the bank’s medium-term target. ECB President Christine Lagarde said this left her organisation “in a good place”, adding that wage growth—a major policy factor—was continuing to moderate.
She noted that risks to economic growth are “tilted to the downside” , but it appears to be holding, according to a wide range of indicators. And with Germany planning to spend hundreds of billions of euros on its infrastructure and defence, there is reason to be optimistic about the region as a whole.
Eurozone reports on second-quarter GDP and July inflation are due next week, offering the first of many data points for policymakers from now until the next bank decision on 11 September.
So, seeking certitude has become paramount, not only at ECB headquarters in Frankfurt. “The jury is out to how quickly the uncertainty will be cleared under current circumstances,” Lagarde opined, noting that much of this is based on trade issues, a source of “fear and expectations”.
Fear and Expectations in Frankfurt. Sounds like a book by American gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson, if he were still alive and covering monetary policy.
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- Bank to remain data-dependent
- Tense mood as EU-US trade talks continue
- Analysts see one more cut this year
By Eric Culp
European Editor, LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
24 July 2025 | 14:20 GMT
FRANKFURT – How should one measure the level of importance of the latest European Central Bank rate decision? In the case of business news programming, Bloomberg TV had an answer: It was at commercial when Thursday’s result was announced.
The wide majority of analysts got what they predicted this week, a rate hold from officials responsible for monetary policy in the Eurozone. This left the ECB’s key interest rates at levels set in June, when the bank announced its seventh straight reduction, the eighth since starting the reduction cycle thirteen months ago.
The euro-dollar exchange rate largely ignored the news to trade around 1.175 before and after the announcement. But the pair is up more than 13% this year, dumping yet another variable for policy calculus on central bankers. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos recently warned that a level above EUR 1.20 would complicate policymaking.
The silly season, now all year round
After Thursday’s announcement and the follow-on press conference, traders were only predicting a 25% chance of a cut at the next meeting in six weeks. Normally one could mentally file that signal as the likely outcome, dispense with further worries on the subject, and scoot off obliviously on summer holiday. Not a smart move in this environment, even if reports late Thursday said the baseline position among rate-setters is a hold in September.
It’s no wonder the ECB reiterated its data-dependent, wait-and-see stance in Thursday. The global market chaos fomented by the policies of the current US administration is unprecedented in the era of commercial air travel without propellers, and concerns remain that American unpredictability could undercut or even crash global economic growth.
Europeans continue to hold their breath as their emissaries work to hammer out a trade agreement with Washington: US President Donald Trump has threatened to triple the current tariff on most EU goods by raising the rate to 30% on 1 August, a move that would add five percentage points to the present import fees on European cars, car parts, steel and aluminium. And remember, today’s duties only came into effect over the past few months.
Reports say Brussels might be willing to accept a blanket US tariff of 15%, Washington’s deal with Tokyo. But some outlets warned that certain EU officials want to unsheathe the trading bloc’s anti-coercion instrument and wreak havoc on the European-related trade and procurement practices of US producers and service providers.
The uncertainty about international commerce fuelled by Trump’s propensity to change his mind and lash out in spite hangs over the European economy like a blanket of surgery theatre anaesthesia, threatening to descend and choke-out growth.
Settling in for some spectating
The ECB has little choice but to sit back and watch how this cookie crumbles. Inflation—the focus of its writ—ticked higher last month to 2%, which matched the bank’s medium-term target. ECB President Christine Lagarde said this left her organisation “in a good place”, adding that wage growth—a major policy factor—was continuing to moderate.
She noted that risks to economic growth are “tilted to the downside” , but it appears to be holding, according to a wide range of indicators. And with Germany planning to spend hundreds of billions of euros on its infrastructure and defence, there is reason to be optimistic about the region as a whole.
Eurozone reports on second-quarter GDP and July inflation are due next week, offering the first of many data points for policymakers from now until the next bank decision on 11 September.
So, seeking certitude has become paramount, not only at ECB headquarters in Frankfurt. “The jury is out to how quickly the uncertainty will be cleared under current circumstances,” Lagarde opined, noting that much of this is based on trade issues, a source of “fear and expectations”.
Fear and Expectations in Frankfurt. Sounds like a book by American gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson, if he were still alive and covering monetary policy.
Sign up for LiveSquawk and receive a discount with the code LSQEC$