With the cost-of-living crisis worsening for many Britons, it is perhaps no surprise that the Bank of England is expected to tighten monetary policy when it announces its decision at midday on Thursday.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is predicted to raise the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Economists forecast a 7-2 vote in favour of the move, with Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra expected to vote to leave rates unchanged.

UBS’s Anna Titareva highlighted the possibility of an 8-1 vote, with Dhingra potentially joining the majority in backing a hike.

“At its September meeting, the BoE left the Bank Rate unchanged but sent a clear hawkish signal, which we interpreted as pointing to policy tightening in the absence of a substantial decline in energy prices.” (LS – Continue Reading)

Bank of Japan policymakers saw the need to keep raising interest rates, with one signalling the chance of faster-paced increases, minutes of the central bank's September meeting showed on Thursday.

"If signs ⁠of an upward deviation in prices were observed, the BOJ would need to accelerate

Another member said while the BOJ did not need to take hasty ⁠action, it should guide policy appropriately "to prevent excessive and persistent price rises," the minutes showed. (RTRS – Continue Reading)

Wall Street strategists are warning that the return of divided government could disrupt the bond market next year by setting the stage for a bruising fight over the debt ceiling.

“The single biggest source of domestic policy uncertainty remaining in the US is the debt ceiling that will become binding by Q2 of next year,” said George Saravelos, strategist at Deutsche Bank. (BBG – Continue Reading)

The changing fall leaves in New York remind us of a fundamental truth. There is a season to everything, especially in markets. When Citrini Research began back in 2023, it was a good time for Thematic Investing™. Stocks were cheap, sentiment was bleak, and a technological revolution was just beginning to break out.

With the annualized CapEx of the hyperscalers (which doesn’t capture the full scope of AI spending) about to hit $1 trillion… that gap needs to close, and there are only two levers to pull. Either we see an order of magnitude increase in revenue or a moderation in CapEx that will break a lot of investment assumptions. Probably a little bit of both.

In order for the CapEx math to work, revenue must grow faster than what’s already been a breakneck pace. Ecosystem ARR is looking to be at least $200 billion, an eye-popping number few were predicting back in 2023. (CR – Continue Reading)