Eurozone Inflation Cracks 4% As ECB Signals December Hike
High diesel prices are hitting shipping (Photo: Culp)

- Mideast conflict boosts energy costs even more

- Core inflation holds steady

- National fuel tax cuts guide price growth

- ECB widely expected to hike rates next month

- Traders: higher chance of central bank increase

By Eric Culp, European Editor

LiveSquawk News

@eculp.bsky.social

@EricCulpLS

4 November 2026 | 11:00 GMT

The impact of the war in Iran again contributed to price growth in the euro area last month, giving policymakers at the European Central Bank another reason to raise interest rates before the end of the year.

Headline consumer price growth in the Eurozone in October climbed to 4.0% from 3.8% in September, as forecast by economists. The preliminary reading for the period from the EU statistics office, Eurostat, leaves the measure at its highest mark since September 2023, when the global post-pandemic price surge was finally subsiding.

The effect of the Iran war was clear in one data point: Energy prices last month surged nearly 21% versus a year ago after a nearly 19% rise last month, Eurostat said.

Headline inflation is now double the ECB target of 2% over the medium term, and the latest core rate, a preferred measure by some due to its lower volatility, held at 2.5%, also above the goal: The indicator excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco. Services costs grew again, ticking up a tenth of a percentage point to 3.3% y/y from September.

The rise in headline inflation to 4% all but guarantees a euro area rate hike next month. Following last week’s decision to hold, ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “the direction of travel is quite clear for all of us”, a statement widely interpreted to mean the bank will raise rates in December, with a 25-basis point increase the prevailing expectation. After the inflation news, traders predicted the likelihood of such a move at over 88% versus just below 85% on Tuesday.

“Today’s inflation numbers have brought the central bank one step closer to a December rate hike,” ING’s Carsten Brzeski wrote. “Muted underlying inflationary pressure, at the same time, confirms our view that the December hike could also be the last one.”

Even though the US Democratic Party has apparently won both the lower and upper house in Washington in a stunning rebuke of the policies of President Donald Trump, analysts said they expected little to no immediate change to high prices on energy markets. On Wednesday, Brent crude slipped to just over USD 102/bbl from last week’s mark above USD 116/bbl, but it was still at a level – excluding war-driven increases this year – last seen in 2022.

Mixed price growth in Eurozone Big Four thanks to fuel tax policies

October numbers released Friday from the major Eurozone economies pointed in different directions. Germany said its EU-harmonised inflation rate eased to 2.8% y/y, down more than the 3.0% expected and a half-point drop from 3.3% in September. France reported earlier that its annual rate increased to 3.8%, up from the 3.6% market estimate and 3.4% in the previous period.

The growth rates from the region’s two biggest economies would have been worse had governments there not offered relief at the pump that (re)started last month. Germany reinstated a reduction in fuel levies of around 17 cents/l, and France again offered vouchers for some low-income commuters while providing tax cuts on fuel for sectors such as agriculture and construction. These measures are expected to run to the end of the year.

Italian price growth surged to 5.6% last month, over a percentage point higher than in September and its worst since July 2023. The country let its diesel tax cut expire in early October, only to revive it in another form near the end of the month.

Spain, which extended its fuel tax cut of 20 cents/l through December, said its headline inflation eased a tenth of a point to 4.9%, which was in line with market expectations.

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