The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a surprise rebound in employment growth on Friday, with the US economy adding 178,000 jobs in March, following a revised decline of 133,000 in the prior month. Analysts had expected job growth of 65,000.
Deutsche Bank’s Brett Ryan said the rebound from strike- and weather-related weakness in February payrolls was somewhat less impressive, citing a slowdown in average hourly earnings to 0.2% from 0.4% and a dip in average weekly hours worked to 34.2 from 34.3.
The Middle East conflict has now entered its fifth week with no clear resolution in sight. Over the Easter weekend, Donald Trump released a highly aggressive, profanity-laden post demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face severe consequences.
In an interview with Axios, he said a deal with Iran could still be reached by Tuesday at 20:00 ET, warning that failure to do so would result in the US “blowing up everything”.
With one eye on geopolitical developments, investors will also look to the Bank of Japan on Monday as it releases the results of its branch managers’ meeting. Focus will be on the bank’s assessment of SMEs’ wage and price-setting behaviour into FY26, alongside initial reactions to the deterioration in the Middle East backdrop since the end of February.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting are due on Wednesday. Barclays expects them to show that most policymakers were comfortable maintaining a prolonged pause as they contend with considerable uncertainty about developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy prices, inflation, activity, and labour market conditions.
All Times Are GMT
Monday 6 April
Speakers: --
Tuesday 7 April
06:00 - Swede Mar CPIF/CPIF Excl. Energy (Prelim) Consensus: 2.2% (prev 1.7%)/1.5% (prev 1.4%)
Danske Bank highlights that a month into the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran, a stable resolution seems increasingly elusive. “We have surpassed the point where we in the near term could return to normal, even if the war ends today, and the longer the war goes on, the higher the risk of severe effects on inflation (for more details, see our alternative scenario). In March, we anticipate core inflation at 1.5% y/y, while high energy prices will push the Riksbank’s target variable, CPIF, up to 2.2%.
12:30 - US Feb Durable Goods Orders (Prelim) Consensus: M/M -1.0% (prev 0.0%)
“We are looking for signs of discretionary spending weakening, which would show up in categories such as travel, dining out and durable goods, including vehicles,” forecast Deutsche Bank. “Auto sales were strong in March, and a range of high-frequency indicators still indicate consumer spending and activity are holding up. The only clear signal of weakness is Broadway box office receipts, which have been soft over the past three weeks.”
Speakers: Fed’s Goolsbee, Jefferson
Wednesday 8 April
02:00 - RBNZ Apr Interest Rate Decision Consensus: On Hold (prev 2.25%)
Economists at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said they expected the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 2.25%, in line with the markets. “The focus will be on the degree of concern the Monetary Policy Committee members hold for the inflation outlook following the current oil price shock. Governor Breman’s 24 March speech on the impacts of the Middle East conflict on the New Zealand economy is consistent with our view that, given elevated uncertainty, the RBNZ is likely to take time to confirm the implications of a negative supply shock.”
06:00 - Germany Feb Industrial Orders Consensus: 3.0% (prev -11.1%)
Citi analysts said they expected orders data to stabilise after recent gyrations. “Similarly, trade data should mean-revert. Yet all the activity data refers to February, and this will not reflect any impact from the conflict in the Middle East.”
Daiwa analysts posited that, given the escalation of the conflict, the April Sentix survey will likely show a further deterioration in investor confidence, following a relatively modest weakening in its headline index to a three-month low last month.
Speakers: --
Thursday 9 April
06:00 - Germany Feb Industrial Production Consensus: M/M 0.7% (prev -0.5%)
SocGen said it expected German industrial production (including construction) to increase by 0.8% mom in February, following the disappointing January release, supported by rising orders on the back of fiscal stimulus. The car sector is, however, still facing structural headwinds, while energy-intensive industries are likely to take a major hit as of March when higher energy prices start feeding through. The order-to-inventory ratio has jumped above its long-term average and should support a gradual improvement in activity, but with a risk of being held back if confidence starts weakening more substantially on the back of the energy shock.
12:30 – US Feb Core PCE Price Index Consensus: Y/Y 3.1% (prev 3.1%)
Barclays said that for February, it expected core PCE inflation to moderate somewhat but to remain uncomfortably elevated at around 4.1% on a 3mma annualised basis. “We continue to expect monthly core inflation rates to moderate substantially after April (when distortions to rent and OER inflation related to last Fall's government shutdown get undone), when the effects of tariffs increases will have largely passed through consumer prices, while rent and OER inflation contribute to a softening, and non-housing services price inflation remains moderate, led by modest wage growth. Specifically, we expect monthly core CPI and core PCE inflation prints to moderate to the low 0.2's for the rest of the year. That would bring core PCE inflation to 2.8% Q4/Q4 for the year.”
Speakers: SNB’s Schlegel | ECB’s Sleijpen
Friday 10 April
12:30 US Mar CPI/Core CPI Consensus: Y/Y 3.3% (prev 2.4%)/2.7% (prev 2.5%)
Commenting on one of the two inflation gauges from the US this week, economists at Citi said that headline CPI was expected to rise sharply in March (up 0.9% m/m, 3.3% y/y), driven by a sharp rise in gasoline prices. “Core CPI should stay modest at 0.2% m/m, as easing shelter inflation and softer services offset a temporary boost from used cars. With both headline and core inflation remaining above target in m/m annualised and y/y terms and stronger recent labour market data, Fed officials may continue to sound hawkish.”
12:30 - Canada Mar Labour Report Consensus: Employment 15.0k (prev -83.9k)
TD Securities said it looked for a muted rebound in CAD employment with just 10,000 jobs created in March, as a larger increase in labour supply drives the unemployment rate 0.1 percentage points higher to 6.8%. Analysts estimated that mean reversion would typically support a larger rebound from the 84,000 jobs lost in February, but did not expect this to materialise given the combination of elevated uncertainty and muted hiring intentions.
Speakers: ECB’s de Guindos
All Times GMT
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a surprise rebound in employment growth on Friday, with the US economy adding 178,000 jobs in March, following a revised decline of 133,000 in the prior month. Analysts had expected job growth of 65,000.
Deutsche Bank’s Brett Ryan said the rebound from strike- and weather-related weakness in February payrolls was somewhat less impressive, citing a slowdown in average hourly earnings to 0.2% from 0.4% and a dip in average weekly hours worked to 34.2 from 34.3.
The Middle East conflict has now entered its fifth week with no clear resolution in sight. Over the Easter weekend, Donald Trump released a highly aggressive, profanity-laden post demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face severe consequences.
In an interview with Axios, he said a deal with Iran could still be reached by Tuesday at 20:00 ET, warning that failure to do so would result in the US “blowing up everything”.
With one eye on geopolitical developments, investors will also look to the Bank of Japan on Monday as it releases the results of its branch managers’ meeting. Focus will be on the bank’s assessment of SMEs’ wage and price-setting behaviour into FY26, alongside initial reactions to the deterioration in the Middle East backdrop since the end of February.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting are due on Wednesday. Barclays expects them to show that most policymakers were comfortable maintaining a prolonged pause as they contend with considerable uncertainty about developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy prices, inflation, activity, and labour market conditions.
All Times Are GMT
Speakers: --
06:00 - Swede Mar CPIF/CPIF Excl. Energy (Prelim)
Consensus: 2.2% (prev 1.7%)/1.5% (prev 1.4%)
Danske Bank highlights that a month into the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran, a stable resolution seems increasingly elusive. “We have surpassed the point where we in the near term could return to normal, even if the war ends today, and the longer the war goes on, the higher the risk of severe effects on inflation (for more details, see our alternative scenario). In March, we anticipate core inflation at 1.5% y/y, while high energy prices will push the Riksbank’s target variable, CPIF, up to 2.2%.
12:30 - US Feb Durable Goods Orders (Prelim)
Consensus: M/M -1.0% (prev 0.0%)
“We are looking for signs of discretionary spending weakening, which would show up in categories such as travel, dining out and durable goods, including vehicles,” forecast Deutsche Bank. “Auto sales were strong in March, and a range of high-frequency indicators still indicate consumer spending and activity are holding up. The only clear signal of weakness is Broadway box office receipts, which have been soft over the past three weeks.”
Speakers: Fed’s Goolsbee, Jefferson
02:00 - RBNZ Apr Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: On Hold (prev 2.25%)
Economists at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said they expected the RBNZ to hold the OCR at 2.25%, in line with the markets. “The focus will be on the degree of concern the Monetary Policy Committee members hold for the inflation outlook following the current oil price shock. Governor Breman’s 24 March speech on the impacts of the Middle East conflict on the New Zealand economy is consistent with our view that, given elevated uncertainty, the RBNZ is likely to take time to confirm the implications of a negative supply shock.”
06:00 - Germany Feb Industrial Orders
Consensus: 3.0% (prev -11.1%)
Citi analysts said they expected orders data to stabilise after recent gyrations. “Similarly, trade data should mean-revert. Yet all the activity data refers to February, and this will not reflect any impact from the conflict in the Middle East.”
08:30 - Eurozone Apr Sentix Investor Confidence
Consensus: -8.5 (prev -10.5)
Daiwa analysts posited that, given the escalation of the conflict, the April Sentix survey will likely show a further deterioration in investor confidence, following a relatively modest weakening in its headline index to a three-month low last month.
Speakers: --
06:00 - Germany Feb Industrial Production
Consensus: M/M 0.7% (prev -0.5%)
SocGen said it expected German industrial production (including construction) to increase by 0.8% mom in February, following the disappointing January release, supported by rising orders on the back of fiscal stimulus. The car sector is, however, still facing structural headwinds, while energy-intensive industries are likely to take a major hit as of March when higher energy prices start feeding through. The order-to-inventory ratio has jumped above its long-term average and should support a gradual improvement in activity, but with a risk of being held back if confidence starts weakening more substantially on the back of the energy shock.
12:30 – US Feb Core PCE Price Index
Consensus: Y/Y 3.1% (prev 3.1%)
Barclays said that for February, it expected core PCE inflation to moderate somewhat but to remain uncomfortably elevated at around 4.1% on a 3mma annualised basis. “We continue to expect monthly core inflation rates to moderate substantially after April (when distortions to rent and OER inflation related to last Fall's government shutdown get undone), when the effects of tariffs increases will have largely passed through consumer prices, while rent and OER inflation contribute to a softening, and non-housing services price inflation remains moderate, led by modest wage growth. Specifically, we expect monthly core CPI and core PCE inflation prints to moderate to the low 0.2's for the rest of the year. That would bring core PCE inflation to 2.8% Q4/Q4 for the year.”
Speakers: SNB’s Schlegel | ECB’s Sleijpen
12:30 US Mar CPI/Core CPI
Consensus: Y/Y 3.3% (prev 2.4%)/2.7% (prev 2.5%)
Commenting on one of the two inflation gauges from the US this week, economists at Citi said that headline CPI was expected to rise sharply in March (up 0.9% m/m, 3.3% y/y), driven by a sharp rise in gasoline prices. “Core CPI should stay modest at 0.2% m/m, as easing shelter inflation and softer services offset a temporary boost from used cars. With both headline and core inflation remaining above target in m/m annualised and y/y terms and stronger recent labour market data, Fed officials may continue to sound hawkish.”
12:30 - Canada Mar Labour Report
Consensus: Employment 15.0k (prev -83.9k)
TD Securities said it looked for a muted rebound in CAD employment with just 10,000 jobs created in March, as a larger increase in labour supply drives the unemployment rate 0.1 percentage points higher to 6.8%. Analysts estimated that mean reversion would typically support a larger rebound from the 84,000 jobs lost in February, but did not expect this to materialise given the combination of elevated uncertainty and muted hiring intentions.
Speakers: ECB’s de Guindos