Central bank meetings dominate the calendar, with Wednesday’s FOMC decision the main event. Policy updates from the Swiss National Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and Brazil’s Selic committee will round out a heavy week for global rates.
On the US data front, BofA noted that the BLS, BEA and Census have been rolling out updated data calendars. “Before the Jan FOMC meeting, we can expect to get three more payroll prints (Oct, Nov, Dec) and two more u-rates (Nov, Dec). On the inflation front, we'll get Nov and Dec CPI. We'll also get retail sales for Oct, Nov and maybe Dec. The Oct Household Survey (u-rate) and CPI are cancelled, but we are still waiting to learn the rescheduled release dates for Oct and Nov PCE and PPI.”
Japan wage data due Tuesday is likely to add to the debate among policymakers regarding the rate hike conundrum. Barclays said it expects wage growth to hold steady, albeit weaker than implied by the 2025 shunto hikes, due to a downward bias resulting from the resampling of the data earlier in the year.
All Times Are GMT
Monday 8 December
N/A – Mainland China Nov Trade Balance (USD) Consensus: 103.1Bn (prev 90.1Bn)
HSBC forecasts a 3.5% y/y rise in November exports, supported by the China–US trade agreement. “The positive outcome of the meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump in Busan in late October may have supported November exports. The new export orders index jumped 1.7pts to 47.6, and key port container throughput increased 3.2% y/y, with exports to ASEAN, the EU and Africa likely continuing to expand.” The bank expects imports to rise 2.5% y/y, helped by a low base and domestic-demand support measures.
Speakers: BoE’s Taylor, Lombardelli
Tuesday 9 December
03:30 – RBA Cash Rate Target (%) Consensus: On Hold (prev 3.60%)
Citi expects a more hawkish tone from the RBA at its final meeting of the year. “Data has generally surprised to the upside since November, with inflation accelerating further in October. The costless option for the Governor is to be more hawkish in case the Board is forced to hike next year. Our view remains 3.6%, but upside risks to the cash rate are clear,” analysts wrote.
01:30 – Mainland China Nov CPI Consensus: Y/Y 0.7% (prev 0.2%)
HSBC expects CPI to rise to 0.7% y/y, helped by a low base. “Agricultural prices improved to 2.3% y/y, and declines in pork and crude oil prices moderated, lessening their drag on CPI,” analysts said. “Despite government efforts to curb pig production, pork prices may take more time to recover. Core CPI will remain supported by travel and entertainment incentives and consumption subsidies.”
07:00 – Norway Nov CPI Consensus: Y/Y 2.7% (prev 3.1%)
Danske Bank highlighted recent volatility in Norwegian inflation, with core CPI falling to 3.0% y/y in September before rebounding to 3.4% in October. The October surprise was driven by imported inflation, mainly electronics and household appliances. “We suspect this reflects price adjustments ahead of Black Week reductions. With the NOK stable and commodity prices steady, we expect core inflation to decline to 3.1% y/y in November.”
14:45 – BoC Dec Interest Rate Decision Consensus: On Hold (prev 2.25%)
National Bank of Canada’s Jocelyn Paquet expects the BoC to hold at 2.25% after signalling in October that policy is “at about the right level.” Market expectations for more easing have faded following stronger-than-expected jobs, inflation and GDP data. “We expect the Bank to maintain that its stance is appropriate, while reiterating it is prepared to respond should the outlook change. We see rates on hold through 2026.” No MPR will be published, but Governor Macklem will hold a press conference.
JP Morgan’s Michael Feroli expects the FOMC to cut the fed funds target to 3.50–3.75%. “We look for at least two dissents favouring no action and one favouring a larger cut. The dots will signal unease, with only a slim majority pencilling in next week’s cut as appropriate.” He expects the median participant to signal one more cut in each of the next two years, with limited changes to economic projections.
Speakers: BoJ’s Ueda
Thursday 11 December
00:30 – Australia Nov Labour Market Report Consensus: Employment Change 20.0k (prev 42.2k)
CBA said November’s report will be closely watched. “The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.5% to 4.3% in October, reinforcing signs of tightening capacity. The survey is volatile, so we may see a partial reversal of the October strength. But leading indicators show little evidence of material loosening. We expect employment growth of ~25,000, enough to keep unemployment at 4.3%.”
08:30 – SNB Dec Interest Rate Decision Consensus: On Hold (prev 0.00%)
Nomura expects the SNB to hold at 0.00%. Inflation and GDP have weakened, but the bank is expected to forecast an inflation pickup and continued GDP expansion in 2026, limiting the case for cuts. The SNB purchased CHF5.1bn in FX in Q2 after limited intervention in 2024, signalling a continued willingness to curb disinflation pressures.
Speakers: BoE’s Bailey
Friday 12 December
07:00 – UK Oct Monthly GDP Consensus: M/M 0.1% (prev -0.1%) Consensus: 3M/3M 0.0% (prev 0.1%)
Barclays expects GDP to rise 0.1% m/m in October, with industrial production up 0.5% and services rising 0.1%. “The PMIs suggest a manufacturing rebound following the weak September reading, partly due to the Jaguar Land Rover plant resuming normal operations after a temporary shutdown.”
Speakers: ECB’s de Guindos | Fed’s Paulson, Hammack
All Times GMT
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Central bank meetings dominate the calendar, with Wednesday’s FOMC decision the main event. Policy updates from the Swiss National Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and Brazil’s Selic committee will round out a heavy week for global rates.
On the US data front, BofA noted that the BLS, BEA and Census have been rolling out updated data calendars. “Before the Jan FOMC meeting, we can expect to get three more payroll prints (Oct, Nov, Dec) and two more u-rates (Nov, Dec). On the inflation front, we'll get Nov and Dec CPI. We'll also get retail sales for Oct, Nov and maybe Dec. The Oct Household Survey (u-rate) and CPI are cancelled, but we are still waiting to learn the rescheduled release dates for Oct and Nov PCE and PPI.”
Japan wage data due Tuesday is likely to add to the debate among policymakers regarding the rate hike conundrum. Barclays said it expects wage growth to hold steady, albeit weaker than implied by the 2025 shunto hikes, due to a downward bias resulting from the resampling of the data earlier in the year.
All Times Are GMT
N/A – Mainland China Nov Trade Balance (USD)
Consensus: 103.1Bn (prev 90.1Bn)
HSBC forecasts a 3.5% y/y rise in November exports, supported by the China–US trade agreement. “The positive outcome of the meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump in Busan in late October may have supported November exports. The new export orders index jumped 1.7pts to 47.6, and key port container throughput increased 3.2% y/y, with exports to ASEAN, the EU and Africa likely continuing to expand.” The bank expects imports to rise 2.5% y/y, helped by a low base and domestic-demand support measures.
Speakers: BoE’s Taylor, Lombardelli
03:30 – RBA Cash Rate Target (%)
Consensus: On Hold (prev 3.60%)
Citi expects a more hawkish tone from the RBA at its final meeting of the year. “Data has generally surprised to the upside since November, with inflation accelerating further in October. The costless option for the Governor is to be more hawkish in case the Board is forced to hike next year. Our view remains 3.6%, but upside risks to the cash rate are clear,” analysts wrote.
15:00 – US JOLTS Job Openings (000s)
Consensus: 7150k (prev —)
Speakers: BoE’s Lombardelli
01:30 – Mainland China Nov CPI
Consensus: Y/Y 0.7% (prev 0.2%)
HSBC expects CPI to rise to 0.7% y/y, helped by a low base. “Agricultural prices improved to 2.3% y/y, and declines in pork and crude oil prices moderated, lessening their drag on CPI,” analysts said. “Despite government efforts to curb pig production, pork prices may take more time to recover. Core CPI will remain supported by travel and entertainment incentives and consumption subsidies.”
07:00 – Norway Nov CPI
Consensus: Y/Y 2.7% (prev 3.1%)
Danske Bank highlighted recent volatility in Norwegian inflation, with core CPI falling to 3.0% y/y in September before rebounding to 3.4% in October. The October surprise was driven by imported inflation, mainly electronics and household appliances. “We suspect this reflects price adjustments ahead of Black Week reductions. With the NOK stable and commodity prices steady, we expect core inflation to decline to 3.1% y/y in November.”
14:45 – BoC Dec Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: On Hold (prev 2.25%)
National Bank of Canada’s Jocelyn Paquet expects the BoC to hold at 2.25% after signalling in October that policy is “at about the right level.” Market expectations for more easing have faded following stronger-than-expected jobs, inflation and GDP data. “We expect the Bank to maintain that its stance is appropriate, while reiterating it is prepared to respond should the outlook change. We see rates on hold through 2026.” No MPR will be published, but Governor Macklem will hold a press conference.
19:00 – FOMC Dec Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: 25bps Cut (prev 3.75%–4.00%)
JP Morgan’s Michael Feroli expects the FOMC to cut the fed funds target to 3.50–3.75%. “We look for at least two dissents favouring no action and one favouring a larger cut. The dots will signal unease, with only a slim majority pencilling in next week’s cut as appropriate.” He expects the median participant to signal one more cut in each of the next two years, with limited changes to economic projections.
Speakers: BoJ’s Ueda
00:30 – Australia Nov Labour Market Report
Consensus: Employment Change 20.0k (prev 42.2k)
CBA said November’s report will be closely watched. “The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.5% to 4.3% in October, reinforcing signs of tightening capacity. The survey is volatile, so we may see a partial reversal of the October strength. But leading indicators show little evidence of material loosening. We expect employment growth of ~25,000, enough to keep unemployment at 4.3%.”
08:30 – SNB Dec Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: On Hold (prev 0.00%)
Nomura expects the SNB to hold at 0.00%. Inflation and GDP have weakened, but the bank is expected to forecast an inflation pickup and continued GDP expansion in 2026, limiting the case for cuts. The SNB purchased CHF5.1bn in FX in Q2 after limited intervention in 2024, signalling a continued willingness to curb disinflation pressures.
Speakers: BoE’s Bailey
07:00 – UK Oct Monthly GDP
Consensus: M/M 0.1% (prev -0.1%)
Consensus: 3M/3M 0.0% (prev 0.1%)
Barclays expects GDP to rise 0.1% m/m in October, with industrial production up 0.5% and services rising 0.1%. “The PMIs suggest a manufacturing rebound following the weak September reading, partly due to the Jaguar Land Rover plant resuming normal operations after a temporary shutdown.”
Speakers: ECB’s de Guindos | Fed’s Paulson, Hammack