In a quiet start to the week, it is Presidents’ Day in the US, meaning major markets will be closed on Monday.
China is celebrating the Lunar New Year this week.
On the central bank front, minutes from the FOMC’s January interest rate decision will be closely watched by investors seeking to gauge the depth of divisions among policymakers.
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February Monetary Policy Board meeting are also due.
In Europe, the ECB is scheduled to publish its Economic Bulletin on Thursday.
Later in the week, the latest Eurozone negotiated wages data for Q4 will be released. Earnings growth is expected to jump to 3.0% in Q4 2025 from 1.9% in Q3. Experts said the move would broadly align with ECB projections (3.2%), with the sharp rise largely reflecting distortions from Germany’s one-off payments.
SocGen forecasts industrial production to contract by 1.3% m/m in December, based on 96.4% coverage of national data. Year-on-year growth is projected at 0.9%, down from 2.5% in November. “Core countries are expected to show signs of strain in production. The broader outlook remains uncertain,” noted the bank. “Geopolitical headwinds appear to have eased for now, but they continue to represent a key risk for supply chains and external demand. At the same time, new opportunities are emerging for EU exporters as market access expands through recently negotiated trade agreements with Mercosur and India.”
Speakers: ECB’s Villeroy, Nagel | Fed’s Bowman
Tuesday 17 February
07:00 – UK Dec Labour Force Survey Consensus: AWE 3M 4.6% (prev 4.7%)
HSBC noted that the labour market data for November were weak, with a rise in the single-month unemployment rate to 5.3% (keeping the three-month average at 5.1%) and a further decline in PAYE employment. In more positive signs, vacancies appeared to stabilise. “With the next BoE meeting on a knife-edge – the market is c70% priced for a cut on 19 March, this release will be key. The Bank of England thinks wage growth is slowing towards 3.2% in Q2 2026. Our forecasts are in line with that – but a higher print might cause them to think twice and wait a little longer,” analysts wrote.
Daiwa said it expected the ZEW investor survey to show that perceptions of the German economic outlook continue to brighten. Experts noted that the PMIs also indicated manufacturing output returned to expansion after December's blip.
TD Securities forecasts CPI to firm by 0.1 percentage point in January on a larger contribution from components affected by last year's HST pause, as prices rise by 0.2% m/m and CPI-trim/median edge lower to 2.55% y/y.
01:00 – RBNZ Feb Interest Rate Decision Consensus: On Hold (prev 2.25%)
Commonwealth Bank of Australia said it expected the OCR to be held at 2.25%, in what should be a straightforward decision. Analysts said developments since the November MPS point to a higher OCR projection, albeit not as high as current market pricing suggests, with the RBNZ wishing to maintain optionality on the timing and magnitude of OCR hikes. “We have also revised up our neutral OCR estimates (to 3.25% from 3%). The starting point for inflation remains well above the midpoint of the inflation target, and there may not be as much spare capacity in the economy as the RBNZ thinks, with the 2.25% OCR at the lower bound of our Taylor Rule estimates.”
07:00 - UK Jan CPI/Core CPI Consensus: Y/Y 3.0% (prev 3.4%)/3.0% (prev 3.2%)
Barclays said it expected data for January to show the next step down in headline CPI inflation. Experts posited that base effects from last January's changes to taxes on private school tuition fees and a less pronounced increase in the Ofgem Q1 energy price cap than in 2025 should lead headline CPI inflation to decelerate 0.5pp to 2.9% y/y. “We expect core CPI inflation to decelerate by 0.2pp to 3.0%. These numbers would be broadly consistent with the near-term forecast in the recent MPR, where the BoE expected 2.9% headline CPI and 2.9% core CPI, although we note that our nowcast is a high 2.9% (2.94% to two decimal places),” wrote the bank’s economists.
00:30 - Australia Jan Labour Force Survey Consensus: Empl. Chg. 20.0k (prev 65.2k)
Analysts at CBA said the labour market remains in good shape, noting that December’s figures showed broad-based strength. “Employment rose by a stronger-than-expected 65.2k over the month, and the participation rate lifted to 66.7%. This saw the unemployment rate drop to 4.1% from 4.3%,” the bank wrote. “However, the series is notoriously volatile, and we do not believe a material re-tightening in the economy is underway. As such, we anticipate a softer January result to offset some of the outsized gains in December. We expect more modest employment growth of 15k and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2%.”
23:30 - Japan Jan CPI/Ex Fresh Food & Energy Consensus: Y/Y 1.6% (prev 2.1%)/2.7% (prev 2.9%)
SocGen predicted nationwide core CPI (excluding fresh food) decelerated to 2.1% y/y in January (vs 2.4% in December), with the other two CPI measures also slowing. Headline CPI is projected at 1.6% (vs 2.1% in December) due to a slowdown in fresh food, while core‑core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is expected to ease to 2.6% (vs 2.9% in December).
07:00 - UK Jan Retail sales Consensus: M/M 0.2% (prev 0.4%)
Deutsche Bank said that after a tepid increase in December, it expected a larger jump in January. “The latest BRC Sales data pointed to a large uptick in like-for-like sales (rising from 1% y/y to 2.3% y/y),” observed the bank. “The latest CBI Retail Sales measure also jumped 27pts to -17. Renewed discounting post-Christmas, we think, will also push spending. Our models point to a 0.9% m/m rise in retail spending volumes, taking the annual rate up to 4.3%.”
“February flash PMIs are expected to underscore the divergence in industry and service sector performance that has been observed over the past few months,” SocGen said. “We project that euro area manufacturing PMI will show a marginal improvement, rising from 49.5 to 49.7, but will continue to operate below the historical average (z-score: -0.3). Recent dynamics have been mixed. Germany’s fiscal stimulus plan is expected to provide some tailwind to euro area manufacturers, but firms operating in international markets, which make up a significant share of the PMI sample, continue to face substantial foreign competition.”
09:30 - UK Feb S&P Global Composite PMI (Flash) Consensus: 53.3 (prev 53.7)
“We expect the headline manufacturing print to remain steady at 51.8 - with geopolitical uncertainty still weighing on optimism and new orders," said Deutsche Bank. "On services, our models point to a slight uplift – with the headline services PMI rising to 54.2 (two-tenths higher than in January).
13:30 - US Q4 Real GDP (Prelim) Consensus: Q/Q 3.0% (prev 4.4%)
HSBC anticipates a 2.8% q/q annualised rise in real GDP, though experts cautioned that various expenditure components in the data could surprise in either direction. The December retail sales report showed softness, and we estimate that real consumer spending growth slowed to 2.4%, down from 3.5% in Q3. We expect real non-residential fixed investment and real residential investment to have increased at rates of 2.1% and 0.5%, respectively. The record 43-day federal government shutdown that spanned through the first half of Q4 should weigh mechanically on GDP; we estimate that real government expenditure declined at a -5.9% rate.
13:30 – US Dec Core PCE Deflator Consensus: Y/Y 2.9% (prev 2.8%)
BofA suspect the data will reveal a few signs of cooling of activity in December. “We expect personal spending to have risen by 0.4% m/m in Dec, but much of this is due to our forecast for PCE inflation to rise by 0.3% m/m (2.8% y/y). So real spending should be little changed on the month after a series of strong prints. We also forecast flat personal income growth based on the December jobs report. Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, likely rose by 0.4% m/m, which should leave the y/y rate elevated at 3.0%.”
Speakers: Fed’s Bostic, Logan
All Times GMT
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In a quiet start to the week, it is Presidents’ Day in the US, meaning major markets will be closed on Monday.
China is celebrating the Lunar New Year this week.
On the central bank front, minutes from the FOMC’s January interest rate decision will be closely watched by investors seeking to gauge the depth of divisions among policymakers.
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February Monetary Policy Board meeting are also due.
In Europe, the ECB is scheduled to publish its Economic Bulletin on Thursday.
Later in the week, the latest Eurozone negotiated wages data for Q4 will be released. Earnings growth is expected to jump to 3.0% in Q4 2025 from 1.9% in Q3. Experts said the move would broadly align with ECB projections (3.2%), with the sharp rise largely reflecting distortions from Germany’s one-off payments.
All Times Are GMT
10:00 - Eurozone Industrial production (Dec)
Consensus: M/M -1.5% (prev 0.7%)
SocGen forecasts industrial production to contract by 1.3% m/m in December, based on 96.4% coverage of national data. Year-on-year growth is projected at 0.9%, down from 2.5% in November. “Core countries are expected to show signs of strain in production. The broader outlook remains uncertain,” noted the bank. “Geopolitical headwinds appear to have eased for now, but they continue to represent a key risk for supply chains and external demand. At the same time, new opportunities are emerging for EU exporters as market access expands through recently negotiated trade agreements with Mercosur and India.”
Speakers: ECB’s Villeroy, Nagel | Fed’s Bowman
07:00 – UK Dec Labour Force Survey
Consensus: AWE 3M 4.6% (prev 4.7%)
HSBC noted that the labour market data for November were weak, with a rise in the single-month unemployment rate to 5.3% (keeping the three-month average at 5.1%) and a further decline in PAYE employment. In more positive signs, vacancies appeared to stabilise. “With the next BoE meeting on a knife-edge – the market is c70% priced for a cut on 19 March, this release will be key. The Bank of England thinks wage growth is slowing towards 3.2% in Q2 2026. Our forecasts are in line with that – but a higher print might cause them to think twice and wait a little longer,” analysts wrote.
10:00 - Germany Feb ZEW Survey Expectations
Consensus: 65.0 (prev 59.6)
Daiwa said it expected the ZEW investor survey to show that perceptions of the German economic outlook continue to brighten. Experts noted that the PMIs also indicated manufacturing output returned to expansion after December's blip.
13:30 - Canada CPI/Core Median (Jan)
Consensus: Y/Y 2.4% (prev 2.4%)/2.5% (prev 2.5%)
TD Securities forecasts CPI to firm by 0.1 percentage point in January on a larger contribution from components affected by last year's HST pause, as prices rise by 0.2% m/m and CPI-trim/median edge lower to 2.55% y/y.
Speakers: ECB’s Escriva, Makhlouf | Fed’s Barr, Daly
01:00 – RBNZ Feb Interest Rate Decision
Consensus: On Hold (prev 2.25%)
Commonwealth Bank of Australia said it expected the OCR to be held at 2.25%, in what should be a straightforward decision. Analysts said developments since the November MPS point to a higher OCR projection, albeit not as high as current market pricing suggests, with the RBNZ wishing to maintain optionality on the timing and magnitude of OCR hikes. “We have also revised up our neutral OCR estimates (to 3.25% from 3%). The starting point for inflation remains well above the midpoint of the inflation target, and there may not be as much spare capacity in the economy as the RBNZ thinks, with the 2.25% OCR at the lower bound of our Taylor Rule estimates.”
07:00 - UK Jan CPI/Core CPI
Consensus: Y/Y 3.0% (prev 3.4%)/3.0% (prev 3.2%)
Barclays said it expected data for January to show the next step down in headline CPI inflation. Experts posited that base effects from last January's changes to taxes on private school tuition fees and a less pronounced increase in the Ofgem Q1 energy price cap than in 2025 should lead headline CPI inflation to decelerate 0.5pp to 2.9% y/y. “We expect core CPI inflation to decelerate by 0.2pp to 3.0%. These numbers would be broadly consistent with the near-term forecast in the recent MPR, where the BoE expected 2.9% headline CPI and 2.9% core CPI, although we note that our nowcast is a high 2.9% (2.94% to two decimal places),” wrote the bank’s economists.
Speakers: ECB’s Villeroy, Cipollone, Schnabel | Fed’s Bowman
00:30 - Australia Jan Labour Force Survey
Consensus: Empl. Chg. 20.0k (prev 65.2k)
Analysts at CBA said the labour market remains in good shape, noting that December’s figures showed broad-based strength. “Employment rose by a stronger-than-expected 65.2k over the month, and the participation rate lifted to 66.7%. This saw the unemployment rate drop to 4.1% from 4.3%,” the bank wrote. “However, the series is notoriously volatile, and we do not believe a material re-tightening in the economy is underway. As such, we anticipate a softer January result to offset some of the outsized gains in December. We expect more modest employment growth of 15k and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2%.”
23:30 - Japan Jan CPI/Ex Fresh Food & Energy
Consensus: Y/Y 1.6% (prev 2.1%)/2.7% (prev 2.9%)
SocGen predicted nationwide core CPI (excluding fresh food) decelerated to 2.1% y/y in January (vs 2.4% in December), with the other two CPI measures also slowing. Headline CPI is projected at 1.6% (vs 2.1% in December) due to a slowdown in fresh food, while core‑core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is expected to ease to 2.6% (vs 2.9% in December).
Speakers: ECB’s Cipollone | Fed’s Bostic, Kashkari, Bowman, Goolsbee | RBNZ’s Breman
07:00 - UK Jan Retail sales
Consensus: M/M 0.2% (prev 0.4%)
Deutsche Bank said that after a tepid increase in December, it expected a larger jump in January. “The latest BRC Sales data pointed to a large uptick in like-for-like sales
(rising from 1% y/y to 2.3% y/y),” observed the bank. “The latest CBI Retail Sales measure also jumped 27pts to -17. Renewed discounting post-Christmas, we think, will also push spending. Our models point to a 0.9% m/m rise in retail spending volumes, taking the annual rate up to 4.3%.”
09:00 - Eurozone Feb HCOB Composite PMI (Flash)
Consensus: 51.5 (prev 51.3)
“February flash PMIs are expected to underscore the divergence in industry and service sector performance that has been observed over the past few months,” SocGen said. “We project that euro area manufacturing PMI will show a marginal improvement, rising from 49.5 to 49.7, but will continue to operate below the historical average (z-score: -0.3). Recent dynamics have been mixed. Germany’s fiscal stimulus plan is expected to provide some tailwind to euro area manufacturers, but firms operating in international markets, which make up a significant share of the PMI sample, continue to face substantial foreign competition.”
09:30 - UK Feb S&P Global Composite PMI (Flash)
Consensus: 53.3 (prev 53.7)
“We expect the headline manufacturing print to remain steady at 51.8 - with geopolitical uncertainty still weighing on optimism and new orders," said Deutsche Bank. "On services, our models point to a slight uplift – with the headline services PMI rising to 54.2 (two-tenths higher than in January).
13:30 - US Q4 Real GDP (Prelim)
Consensus: Q/Q 3.0% (prev 4.4%)
HSBC anticipates a 2.8% q/q annualised rise in real GDP, though experts cautioned that various expenditure components in the data could surprise in either direction. The December retail sales report showed softness, and we estimate that real consumer spending growth slowed to 2.4%, down from 3.5% in Q3. We expect real non-residential fixed investment and real residential investment to have increased at rates of 2.1% and 0.5%, respectively. The record 43-day federal government shutdown that spanned through the first half of Q4 should weigh mechanically on GDP; we estimate that real government expenditure declined at a -5.9% rate.
13:30 – US Dec Core PCE Deflator
Consensus: Y/Y 2.9% (prev 2.8%)
BofA suspect the data will reveal a few signs of cooling of activity in December. “We expect personal spending to have risen by 0.4% m/m in Dec, but much of this is due to our forecast for PCE inflation to rise by 0.3% m/m (2.8% y/y). So real spending should be little changed on the month after a series of strong prints. We also forecast flat personal income growth based on the December jobs report. Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, likely rose by 0.4% m/m, which should leave the y/y rate elevated at 3.0%.”
Speakers: Fed’s Bostic, Logan