Following the conclusion of President Trump's China visit, the White House said the two leaders agreed that Iran must not control the Strait of Hormuz, citing a shared commitment to global security. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced discussions on a joint Board of Investment, and Trump rounded off the summit by personally inviting President Xi to the White House later this year.
UK politics remains turbulent, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position under pressure. BofA Global Research warns that the risk of a leadership challenge has risen, though a delay looks increasingly likely. The bank notes that heightened uncertainty could tighten financial conditions and weigh on growth, adding that while policy continuity is possible in some scenarios, a soft-left successor could unsettle markets — though the threat of a negative market reaction makes an outright breach of fiscal rules far from certain.
On the central bank front, the FOMC Minutes are due Thursday. HSBC expects the April meeting record — likely Jerome Powell's last as chair, with Kevin Warsh set to take over in June — to show extensive discussion around the inflation outlook and risks.
The European Commission publishes its Spring Economic Forecasts the same day.
It is a quiet week for US data, but UK releases will be closely watched, as will a busy run of euro area figures. Daiwa flags the flash PMIs on Thursday as the week's key release. With the ECB potentially moving as soon as June, the bank notes that some Governing Council members have grown more cautious given recent weakness in activity — making the May surveys, alongside developments in the Middle East, particularly relevant to the ECB's thinking.
All Times Are GMT
Monday 18 May
02:00 - Mainland China Apr Industrial Production Consensus: Y/Y 6.0% (prev 5.7%)
HSBC said, “On the industrial side, we expect industrial production rose 6.0% y/y in April, underpinned by resilient external demand and mainland China’s relative resilience amid energy disruptions triggered by the Middle East conflict.”
23:50 - Japan Q1 GDP (Flash) Consensus: Q/Q 1.7% (prev 1.3%)
BofA looks for real GDP to grow 0.4% q/q (1.8% annualised) in Q1, up from 0.3% (1.2% annualised) in Q4. The pickup is seen as broadly shared: exports to the US and Europe continued to recover, public and housing investment should rise, while private consumption is likely flat. Middle East spillovers are seen as limited in Q1, though prolonged tensions could weigh on Q2 capex and consumption via higher energy costs.
Speakers: BoE’s Greene, Mann | ECB’s Vujčić/Dolenc
National Bank of Canada expects another significant rise in gasoline prices driven by the Middle East conflict to push the headline index up 0.6% m/m, lifting the 12-month rate from 2.4% to 3.1% — the highest since December 2023. The Bank of Canada's preferred core measures may ease slightly, with CPI-med slipping to 2.2% and CPI-trim to 2.1%.
06:00 - UK Apr Labour Force Survey Consensus: AWE 3.7% (prev 3.8%)
Barclays expects private sector wage growth to slow 0.1pp to 3.1% 3m/y in March. Brightmine pay settlement data points to further easing ahead, with awards effective in 2026 running at a median of 3.2%, down from 3.5% in the three months to March. The unemployment outlook remains uncertain given recent survey volatility, though Barclays' shadow employment indicator suggests a modest decline in employment.
Deutsche Bank posited that there could be some good news coming on inflation: “Price momentum should ease from March as base effects weigh on the annual calculation, particularly in services, where annual price resets are expected to be smaller than last year,” said the bank. “The bad news is that prices will remain well above the BoE's 2% target — a notable shift from just three months ago, when the bank and others were forecasting a drop to around 2% in April. The early Easter period and earlier index collection day should also drag on airfares, while energy is a mixed picture, with pump prices and dual fuel bills moving in opposite directions.”
Speakers: Fed's Paulson
Thursday 21 May
23:30 - Japan Apr CPI/ CPI Ex Food, Energy Consensus: Y/Y 1.6% (prev 1.5%)/2.2% (prev 2.4%)
HSBC expects headline inflation to nudge up to 1.6% y/y from 1.5%, staying below the BoJ's 2% target. Food remains a key upside driver amid a fresh wave of price hikes at the start of the fiscal year, noted experts at the bank. “On the downside, fuel-price caps continue to limit energy pass-through from the Middle East conflict, while the expansion of support for private high school tuition should dampen education inflation.”
Speakers: BoE’s Taylor | ECB’s Villeroy, Elderson | BoJ’s Koedas
Oxford Economics forecasts a 0.5% m/m fall, reflecting payback from March's fuel-driven surge — when many motorists filled up ahead of anticipated price rises — as well as some reversal in non-food and non-store sales. Volatility in the sub-categories leaves scope for surprise.
08:00 - Germany May Ifo Business Climate Index Consensus: 84.3 (prev 84.4)
Germany's IFO is expected to decline across both the current assessment and expectations components. Nomura said this would be in line with weakness already in German investor sentiment surveys released so far (Sentix and ZEW), as well as due to the fact sentiment surrounding the Iran war has soured in the past week.
Following the conclusion of President Trump's China visit, the White House said the two leaders agreed that Iran must not control the Strait of Hormuz, citing a shared commitment to global security. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced discussions on a joint Board of Investment, and Trump rounded off the summit by personally inviting President Xi to the White House later this year.
UK politics remains turbulent, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position under pressure. BofA Global Research warns that the risk of a leadership challenge has risen, though a delay looks increasingly likely. The bank notes that heightened uncertainty could tighten financial conditions and weigh on growth, adding that while policy continuity is possible in some scenarios, a soft-left successor could unsettle markets — though the threat of a negative market reaction makes an outright breach of fiscal rules far from certain.
On the central bank front, the FOMC Minutes are due Thursday. HSBC expects the April meeting record — likely Jerome Powell's last as chair, with Kevin Warsh set to take over in June — to show extensive discussion around the inflation outlook and risks.
The European Commission publishes its Spring Economic Forecasts the same day.
It is a quiet week for US data, but UK releases will be closely watched, as will a busy run of euro area figures. Daiwa flags the flash PMIs on Thursday as the week's key release. With the ECB potentially moving as soon as June, the bank notes that some Governing Council members have grown more cautious given recent weakness in activity — making the May surveys, alongside developments in the Middle East, particularly relevant to the ECB's thinking.
All Times Are GMT
02:00 - Mainland China Apr Industrial Production
Consensus: Y/Y 6.0% (prev 5.7%)
HSBC said, “On the industrial side, we expect industrial production rose 6.0% y/y in April, underpinned by resilient external demand and mainland China’s relative resilience amid energy disruptions triggered by the Middle East conflict.”
23:50 - Japan Q1 GDP (Flash)
Consensus: Q/Q 1.7% (prev 1.3%)
BofA looks for real GDP to grow 0.4% q/q (1.8% annualised) in Q1, up from 0.3% (1.2% annualised) in Q4. The pickup is seen as broadly shared: exports to the US and Europe continued to recover, public and housing investment should rise, while private consumption is likely flat. Middle East spillovers are seen as limited in Q1, though prolonged tensions could weigh on Q2 capex and consumption via higher energy costs.
Speakers: BoE’s Greene, Mann | ECB’s Vujčić/Dolenc
12:30 - Canada Apr CPI
Consensus: Y/Y 3.0% (prev 2.4%)
National Bank of Canada expects another significant rise in gasoline prices driven by the Middle East conflict to push the headline index up 0.6% m/m, lifting the 12-month rate from 2.4% to 3.1% — the highest since December 2023. The Bank of Canada's preferred core measures may ease slightly, with CPI-med slipping to 2.2% and CPI-trim to 2.1%.
06:00 - UK Apr Labour Force Survey
Consensus: AWE 3.7% (prev 3.8%)
Barclays expects private sector wage growth to slow 0.1pp to 3.1% 3m/y in March. Brightmine pay settlement data points to further easing ahead, with awards effective in 2026 running at a median of 3.2%, down from 3.5% in the three months to March. The unemployment outlook remains uncertain given recent survey volatility, though Barclays' shadow employment indicator suggests a modest decline in employment.
Speakers: BoE’s Breeden | ECB’s Lane, Mahklouf
06:00 - UK Apr CPI/Core CPI
Consensus: Y/Y 3.0% (prev 3.3%)/ 2.7% (prev 2.6%)
Deutsche Bank posited that there could be some good news coming on inflation: “Price momentum should ease from March as base effects weigh on the annual calculation, particularly in services, where annual price resets are expected to be smaller than last year,” said the bank. “The bad news is that prices will remain well above the BoE's 2% target — a notable shift from just three months ago, when the bank and others were forecasting a drop to around 2% in April. The early Easter period and earlier index collection day should also drag on airfares, while energy is a mixed picture, with pump prices and dual fuel bills moving in opposite directions.”
Speakers: Fed's Paulson
23:30 - Japan Apr CPI/ CPI Ex Food, Energy
Consensus: Y/Y 1.6% (prev 1.5%)/2.2% (prev 2.4%)
HSBC expects headline inflation to nudge up to 1.6% y/y from 1.5%, staying below the BoJ's 2% target. Food remains a key upside driver amid a fresh wave of price hikes at the start of the fiscal year, noted experts at the bank. “On the downside, fuel-price caps continue to limit energy pass-through from the Middle East conflict, while the expansion of support for private high school tuition should dampen education inflation.”
Speakers: BoE’s Taylor | ECB’s Villeroy, Elderson | BoJ’s Koedas
06:00 - UK Apr Retail Sales
Consensus: M/M -0.6% (prev 0.7%)
Oxford Economics forecasts a 0.5% m/m fall, reflecting payback from March's fuel-driven surge — when many motorists filled up ahead of anticipated price rises — as well as some reversal in non-food and non-store sales. Volatility in the sub-categories leaves scope for surprise.
08:00 - Germany May Ifo Business Climate Index
Consensus: 84.3 (prev 84.4)
Germany's IFO is expected to decline across both the current assessment and expectations components. Nomura said this would be in line with weakness already in German investor sentiment surveys released so far (Sentix and ZEW), as well as due to the fact sentiment surrounding the Iran war has soured in the past week.
Speakers: ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Vujčić, Cipollone, Kazimir, Muller