August’s outsized US payroll gain is unlikely to be repeated in September. However, inflation—not job growth—remains the Federal Reserve’s primary concern. The latest economist poll sees nonfarm payrolls rising by 90,000 in September, after August’s 162,000 increase and a net 55,000 of upward revisions to prior months. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, private payrolls are seen rising by 90,000, and average hourly earnings are forecast at 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y.

August’s gain was driven chiefly by hiring in food services and drinking places, as well as in local government education. Barclays said uncertainty around its forecast remains elevated, with the available indicators and modelling approaches sending mixed signals.

“We continue to think that seasonal adjustment significantly exaggerated last month’s employment gain. Had August nonfarm payroll employment been adjusted using the August 2025 seasonal factors, it would have registered a 74,000 decline rather than a 162,000 increase. We suspect that the more the August estimate is revised down, the stronger September may appear, implying upside risk to our September payroll forecast.” (LS – Continue Reading)

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the central bank must continue raising interest rates to fully cool inflation and suggested that rising Treasury yields may also help slow the economy.

“I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals,” Logan said Thursday in prepared remarks for an event at the Dallas Fed. (BBG – Continue Reading)

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed new rules that would make it easier for investment advisers and regulated funds to hold cryptocurrencies on behalf of clients, as US regulators push ahead with writing crypto rules after a sweeping legislation stalled in Congress.

The proposal, announced Thursday stateside, would establish a tailored framework governing how registered investment advisers, investment companies and business development companies hold custody of crypto assets.

The changes are aimed at modernizing decades-old custody requirements and removing regulatory barriers that the SEC says have limited advisers’ ability to offer crypto-related investments. (CNBC – Continue Reading)