August’s outsized US payroll gain is unlikely to be repeated in September. However, inflation—not job growth—remains the Federal Reserve’s primary concern.
The latest economist poll sees nonfarm payrolls rising by 90,000 in September, after August’s 162,000 increase and a net 55,000 of upward revisions to prior months. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, private payrolls are seen rising by 90,000, and average hourly earnings are forecast at 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y.
August’s gain was driven chiefly by hiring in food services and drinking places, as well as in local government education.
Barclays said uncertainty around its forecast remains elevated, with the available indicators and modelling approaches sending mixed signals.
“We continue to think that seasonal adjustment significantly exaggerated last month’s employment gain. Had August nonfarm payroll employment been adjusted using the August 2025 seasonal factors, it would have registered a 74,000 decline rather than a 162,000 increase. We suspect that the more the August estimate is revised down, the stronger September may appear, implying upside risk to our September payroll forecast.”
A further strong print would reinforce the FOMC’s September rate increase and give hawks more reason to argue for another 25bp hike next month.
At the press conference following September’s decision, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the labour side of the mandate was “in good shape”. He pointed to unemployment near 4.1%, rising vacancies and weekly hours, and jobless claims consistent with full employment.
Fed Governor Michael Barr likewise described the labour market as “solid”, saying employment risks had receded while inflation risks had increased—an assessment he used to justify the hike.
Wednesday’s data nevertheless raised concerns that underlying job growth may be softening. US consumer confidence fell sharply to 81.9 in September, well below expectations, while August JOLTS job openings declined to 7.079mln and also missed consensus.
BofA said Warsh’s hawkish September press conference remarks and the recent rise in oil prices had led markets to price in almost 100 basis points of tightening over the next year, including a roughly 75% chance of an October hike at the time of writing.
“Warsh described the labour market as near full employment. He emphasised benign claims and a stable unemployment rate over weak job growth, given the ongoing labour-supply shock. We therefore think September CPI is likely to matter much more than the jobs report for the Fed’s October decision.”
Conversely, if the August estimates show little downward revision, we would expect the September payroll estimate to come in relatively weak, below our baseline forecast of 50,000.
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- Payrolls expected to add 90,000
- Some payback from August’s strong print seen
- Unemployment seen steady
- Data due at 08:30 EST/12:30 GMT
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
17:00 GMT | 1 October 2026
August’s outsized US payroll gain is unlikely to be repeated in September. However, inflation—not job growth—remains the Federal Reserve’s primary concern.
The latest economist poll sees nonfarm payrolls rising by 90,000 in September, after August’s 162,000 increase and a net 55,000 of upward revisions to prior months. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, private payrolls are seen rising by 90,000, and average hourly earnings are forecast at 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y.
August’s gain was driven chiefly by hiring in food services and drinking places, as well as in local government education.
Barclays said uncertainty around its forecast remains elevated, with the available indicators and modelling approaches sending mixed signals.
“We continue to think that seasonal adjustment significantly exaggerated last month’s employment gain. Had August nonfarm payroll employment been adjusted using the August 2025 seasonal factors, it would have registered a 74,000 decline rather than a 162,000 increase. We suspect that the more the August estimate is revised down, the stronger September may appear, implying upside risk to our September payroll forecast.”
A further strong print would reinforce the FOMC’s September rate increase and give hawks more reason to argue for another 25bp hike next month.
At the press conference following September’s decision, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the labour side of the mandate was “in good shape”. He pointed to unemployment near 4.1%, rising vacancies and weekly hours, and jobless claims consistent with full employment.
Fed Governor Michael Barr likewise described the labour market as “solid”, saying employment risks had receded while inflation risks had increased—an assessment he used to justify the hike.
Wednesday’s data nevertheless raised concerns that underlying job growth may be softening. US consumer confidence fell sharply to 81.9 in September, well below expectations, while August JOLTS job openings declined to 7.079mln and also missed consensus.
BofA said Warsh’s hawkish September press conference remarks and the recent rise in oil prices had led markets to price in almost 100 basis points of tightening over the next year, including a roughly 75% chance of an October hike at the time of writing.
“Warsh described the labour market as near full employment. He emphasised benign claims and a stable unemployment rate over weak job growth, given the ongoing labour-supply shock. We therefore think September CPI is likely to matter much more than the jobs report for the Fed’s October decision.”
Conversely, if the August estimates show little downward revision, we would expect the September payroll estimate to come in relatively weak, below our baseline forecast of 50,000.