US June CPI figures are due on Tuesday at 08:30 EST (12:30 GMT). The headline print is widely expected to have fallen 0.1% m/m from 0.5% in May, largely reflecting a sharp drop in energy prices after the US and Iran agreed a ceasefire on 17 June. This would be the softest monthly reading since June 2025 and would mark the first negative print for the series since May 2020.

Most banks expect CPI to have softened in June, though they differ on the main drivers. HSBC’s Global Economics Research team estimate headline inflation fall 0.2% m/m leaving the annual rate at 3.8%, The drop is expected to be led by a 9.6% decline in motor fuel prices, partly offset by higher food and household energy costs.

For core CPI, HSBC highlighted “risks in both directions”, with lower airfares potentially counterbalanced by firmer hotel prices amid increased travel linked to the FIFA World Cup, resulting in a modest 0.2% m/m increase. More generally, economists cited fading tariff effects, lower used-vehicle prices, and weaker energy prices following the mid-month US-Iran ceasefire. Analysts at TD Securities note softer goods prices and a stabilising housing market as downside risks, though higher oil prices could push airfares up. (LS – Continue Reading)

The US has completed its strikes against Iranian military targets for a third consecutive night, while Tehran hit two Emirati oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and triggered air-raid warnings across the Gulf.

US Central Command said it has completed the latest wave of strikes against Iran. The five-hour mission struck military targets across Iran and further degraded Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping, Centcom said in a statement.

The US forces attacked Iranian coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites, and maritime capabilities. (CNBC – Continue Reading)

China’s exports surged more than expected in June, defying forecasts of a slowdown and providing a vital boost to an economy still weighed down by weak domestic demand.

Outbound shipments rose 27.0% from a year earlier in June, accelerating from May’s 19.4% gain, according to data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs. The reading exceeded the 18.0% growth forecast by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. (WSJ – Continue Reading)

Japan’s finance minister floated the idea of adding government bonds to a tax-free investment program for individuals and said the nation’s massive pension fund will adjust its holdings if needed, stepping up efforts to attract cash to domestic markets as the yen trades near 40-year lows.

“If we successfully advance our growth strategy, yen-denominated assets will become more attractive,” Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama told reporters Tuesday. “Since that’s the policy this administration is pursuing, it’s possible the portfolio could be reviewed and, if necessary, revised, as the chief cabinet secretary said.” (BBG – Continue Reading)