US June CPI Key For Fed Inflation And Policy Outlook
- Headline inflation gauge seen slowing sharply - Receding energy costs to pressure monthly measure - Lower airfares likely offset by firmer hotel rates - Fed Chair set to testify on Capitol Hill after release - Data due at 08:30 EST/12:30 GMT
By Evie Cummins LiveSquawk News
13 July 2026 | 16:00 GMT
US June CPI figures are due on Tuesday at 08:30 EST (12:30 GMT). The headline print is widely expected to have fallen 0.1% m/m from 0.5% in May, largely reflecting a sharp drop in energy prices after the US and Iran agreed a ceasefire on 17 June. This would be the softest monthly reading since June 2025 and would mark the first negative print for the series since May 2020.
Most banks expect CPI to have softened in June, though they differ on the main drivers. HSBC’s Global Economics Research team estimate headline inflation fall 0.2% m/m leaving the annual rate at 3.8%, The drop is expected to be led by a 9.6% decline in motor fuel prices, partly offset by higher food and household energy costs.
For core CPI, HSBC highlighted “risks in both directions”, with lower airfares potentially counterbalanced by firmer hotel prices amid increased travel linked to the FIFA World Cup, resulting in a modest 0.2% m/m increase. More generally, economists cited fading tariff effects, lower used-vehicle prices, and weaker energy prices following the mid-month US-Iran ceasefire. Analysts at TD Securities note softer goods prices and a stabilising housing market as downside risks, though higher oil prices could push airfares up.
Exploring the expected drivers within the core reading, researchers at Goldman Sachs looked for a softer-than-consensus core CPI print. The bank similarly points to weakness in autos and shelter. It expects used car prices to fall 0.5%, accompanied by smaller declines in new vehicle prices and motor vehicle insurance. Shelter inflation also remains subdued, with owners' equivalent rent rising 0.23% and rent rising 0.17%, reinforcing the broader disinflation trend. Travel services are expected to post more moderate gains, with gains for both airfares and hotels predicted.
Goldman also expects residual seasonality to weigh on communication and new car prices. Overall, the bank’s forecast implies a 0.24% monthly rise in core PCE inflation for June, with financial services contributing more than in CPI as May’s equity market gains feed through to that component with a lag.
Implications for the Fed
Analysts surveyed posited that June’s core reading could be pivotal for the Fed’s next decision and for assessing the broader economic impact of the US-Iran conflict.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Centre for Microeconomic Data survey, published on 7 July (before the latest tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran), showed short- and medium-term inflation expectations each rising by 0.2 percentage points, while long-term expectations were unchanged. Short-term expectations reached their highest level since September 2023, at 3.7%, while medium-term expectations hit their highest level since June 2022, at 3.3%.
The FOMC minutes published on 8 July reinforced the importance of incoming data in shaping the rate outlook, particularly given rising geopolitical tensions and market volatility around the AI trade. Oil volatility was identified as a key inflation risk, amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Recent commentary from policymakers also emphasised a ‘data dependency’ with regards to the Fed’s current monetary policy stance. Speaking on 7 July, New York Fed’s John Williams said he was feeling “a bit more positive” about near-term inflation as energy prices had fallen and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had begun to recover. However, that optimism was short-lived. The following day, fresh US and Iranian strikes raised fears that the fragile ceasefire was unravelling, sending oil prices more than 7% higher.
US president Trump’s latest statement on the crisis in the Middle East: | Source: Truth Social
The inflation data is scheduled for release less than two hours before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to testifies before the House Financial Services Committee, giving markets an immediate opportunity to gauge the Fed's reaction. Speaking at the ECB's Sintra Forum just over two weeks ago, Warsh said that "expectations of inflation over the first four weeks of this period have come down, inflation risks have come down." Investors will be looking to see whether the June CPI report alters that assessment. However, BMO's Head of US Rates Strategy, Ian Lyngen, expects Warsh to "stick to the script", maintaining an inflation-first message even if the data are softer. In Lyngen's view, the report is unlikely to provide the Fed with clear evidence that further policy tightening is required to return inflation sustainably to its 2% target.
/*jshint esversion: 6 */
var socket;
var assigned_server = 3001;
var distributor_server = 3010;
var publisher_channel = '';
var broadcaster_channel = '';
var remote_ip = '';
var session_info = {};
var logging_interval;
var logging_interval_time = 120000;
var socket_emits = 0;
var session_start_time;
var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2;
var reconnection_delay = 1000;
var playing = false;
var connected_to_assigned = false;
var socket_close_timeout;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
self.onmessage = function (msg) {
switch(msg.data.action) {
case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break;
case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break;
case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break;
case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break;
case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break;
case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break;
case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break;
case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break;
case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break;
}
};
function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() {
clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout);
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
}
function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() {
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay );
}
function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() {
postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"});
}
function reactivate() {
playing = false;
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function player_log_response(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse';
data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final;
data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket;
data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id;
data_array.logs = data.logs;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_message_search(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_message_search';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.search_term = data.search_term;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_more_messages(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_more_messages';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function check_channel_status(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'check_channel_status';
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); }
else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); }
}
function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
}
function join_publisher_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel';
if (typeof data.api_key !== 'undefined') { data_array.api_key = data.api_key; }
else {
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group;
data_array.display_name = data.display_name;
data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
}
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) {
socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
}
function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
}
function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel;
remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
switch(data.type) {
case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break;
}
};
}
function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
}
function server_assignment_response(data) {
assigned_server = data.selected_server;
socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function request_server_assignment() {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment';
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function connect_to_assigned_server() {
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
connected_to_assigned = true;
if (playing) {
postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
}
};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ }
switch(data.type) {
case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
case 'calendar_change':
case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
case 'AppStop':
case 'BroadcasterStarted':
case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
case 'updated_cme_report':
case 'added_cme_commentary':
case 'updated_cme_commentary':
case 'server_assignment_response':
case 'initial_messages':
case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
break;
case 'output':
case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
}
};
socket.onerror = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
};
socket.onclose = function(event) {
console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason);
socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay);
reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor;
connected_to_assigned = false;
};
}
function close_socket() {
clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout);
socket_close_timeout = null;
socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
}
function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
}
function join_player_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_player_channel';
data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
}
function start_log_response(data) {
session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
}
function application_refresh_start(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); }
}
function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
}
function set_static_session_info(data) {
session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename;
session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
}
function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename;
data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name;
data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent;
data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version;
data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled;
data_array.platform = session_info.platform;
data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Headline inflation gauge seen slowing sharply
- Receding energy costs to pressure monthly measure
- Lower airfares likely offset by firmer hotel rates
- Fed Chair set to testify on Capitol Hill after release
- Data due at 08:30 EST/12:30 GMT
By Evie Cummins
LiveSquawk News
13 July 2026 | 16:00 GMT
US June CPI figures are due on Tuesday at 08:30 EST (12:30 GMT). The headline print is widely expected to have fallen 0.1% m/m from 0.5% in May, largely reflecting a sharp drop in energy prices after the US and Iran agreed a ceasefire on 17 June. This would be the softest monthly reading since June 2025 and would mark the first negative print for the series since May 2020.
Most banks expect CPI to have softened in June, though they differ on the main drivers. HSBC’s Global Economics Research team estimate headline inflation fall 0.2% m/m leaving the annual rate at 3.8%, The drop is expected to be led by a 9.6% decline in motor fuel prices, partly offset by higher food and household energy costs.
For core CPI, HSBC highlighted “risks in both directions”, with lower airfares potentially counterbalanced by firmer hotel prices amid increased travel linked to the FIFA World Cup, resulting in a modest 0.2% m/m increase. More generally, economists cited fading tariff effects, lower used-vehicle prices, and weaker energy prices following the mid-month US-Iran ceasefire. Analysts at TD Securities note softer goods prices and a stabilising housing market as downside risks, though higher oil prices could push airfares up.
Exploring the expected drivers within the core reading, researchers at Goldman Sachs looked for a softer-than-consensus core CPI print. The bank similarly points to weakness in autos and shelter. It expects used car prices to fall 0.5%, accompanied by smaller declines in new vehicle prices and motor vehicle insurance. Shelter inflation also remains subdued, with owners' equivalent rent rising 0.23% and rent rising 0.17%, reinforcing the broader disinflation trend. Travel services are expected to post more moderate gains, with gains for both airfares and hotels predicted.
Goldman also expects residual seasonality to weigh on communication and new car prices. Overall, the bank’s forecast implies a 0.24% monthly rise in core PCE inflation for June, with financial services contributing more than in CPI as May’s equity market gains feed through to that component with a lag.
Analysts surveyed posited that June’s core reading could be pivotal for the Fed’s next decision and for assessing the broader economic impact of the US-Iran conflict.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Centre for Microeconomic Data survey, published on 7 July (before the latest tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran), showed short- and medium-term inflation expectations each rising by 0.2 percentage points, while long-term expectations were unchanged. Short-term expectations reached their highest level since September 2023, at 3.7%, while medium-term expectations hit their highest level since June 2022, at 3.3%.
The FOMC minutes published on 8 July reinforced the importance of incoming data in shaping the rate outlook, particularly given rising geopolitical tensions and market volatility around the AI trade. Oil volatility was identified as a key inflation risk, amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Recent commentary from policymakers also emphasised a ‘data dependency’ with regards to the Fed’s current monetary policy stance. Speaking on 7 July, New York Fed’s John Williams said he was feeling “a bit more positive” about near-term inflation as energy prices had fallen and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had begun to recover. However, that optimism was short-lived. The following day, fresh US and Iranian strikes raised fears that the fragile ceasefire was unravelling, sending oil prices more than 7% higher.
The inflation data is scheduled for release less than two hours before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to testifies before the House Financial Services Committee, giving markets an immediate opportunity to gauge the Fed's reaction. Speaking at the ECB's Sintra Forum just over two weeks ago, Warsh said that "expectations of inflation over the first four weeks of this period have come down, inflation risks have come down." Investors will be looking to see whether the June CPI report alters that assessment. However, BMO's Head of US Rates Strategy, Ian Lyngen, expects Warsh to "stick to the script", maintaining an inflation-first message even if the data are softer. In Lyngen's view, the report is unlikely to provide the Fed with clear evidence that further policy tightening is required to return inflation sustainably to its 2% target.