European Briefing - Friday 10.04
Headlines
  • US Inflation In Focus As Energy Shock Clouds Price Growth Outlook
  • Bond Traders Hedge Against More Losses As Inflation Data Looms
  • Warsh Fed Confirmation Delayed As Hearing Plans Hit Snag
  • Anthropic Model Scare Sparks Bessent, Powell Warning To Bank CEOs
  • Trump Warns Iran Not To Charge Fees For Ships Transiting Hormuz
  • Oil Holds Gain After Attacks Lower Saudi Production Capacity
  • North Sea Oil Prices Hit Record High As Iran Keeps Hold Over Hormuz
  • Netanyahu-Trump Divisions On Iran War Threaten To Box In US
  • Israeli PM Authorises Talks With Lebanon Following Trump Intervention
  • South Korea To Send Envoy To Iran As Hormuz Remains Blocked
  • South Korea Holds Rates Steady As Iran War Fans Inflation
  • China Factory Prices Return To Growth On Surging Oil Prices
  • EU Boosts Russian Gas Imports As MidEast Crisis Squeezes Supplies
  • Fast Retailing At Record High After The Uniqlo Owner Lifts Profit Forecast
Commentary
US Inflation In Focus, Energy Shock Clouds Growth Outlook

This week’s US data should help policymakers better assess the emerging global energy shock and its implications for inflation expectations.

On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March consumer price data. Analysts expect headline CPI to rise 3.3% y/y, accelerating from 2.4% previously. On a monthly basis, CPI is seen increasing 0.9%, up from 0.3% in February.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to edge up to 2.6% y/y from 2.5%, while the m/m pace is expected to hold at 0.2%. (LS – Continue Reading)

Warsh Fed Confirmation Delayed As Hearing Plans Hit Snag

An expected nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chair candidate Kevin Warsh has been delayed, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.

Warsh was set to appear in front of the Senate Banking Committee on April 16. That won’t happen, but the hearing is still expected soon, the person said, requesting anonymity as the details have not been made public by the committee.

The committee’s rules require it give a week’s notice before the hearing is held, and first it needs to collect paperwork from the nominee, including financial disclosures. The Banking Committee has yet to receive Warsh’s paperwork, three people familiar with the Senate process said. (CNBC – Continue Reading)

Trump Warns Iran Not To Charge Fees For Transiting Hormuz

President Donald Trump warned Iran against charging tolls on vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz and accused Tehran of doing a “poor job” of letting energy supplies flow, despite a ceasefire deal that included an agreement to open the crucial waterway.

“There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait,” Trump wrote in a social media post Thursday. “They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!” (BBG – Continue reading)

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/*jshint esversion: 6 */ var socket; var assigned_server = 3001; var distributor_server = 3010; var publisher_channel = ''; var broadcaster_channel = ''; var remote_ip = ''; var session_info = {}; var logging_interval; var logging_interval_time = 120000; var socket_emits = 0; var session_start_time; var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2; var reconnection_delay = 1000; var playing = false; var connected_to_assigned = false; var socket_close_timeout; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; self.onmessage = function (msg) { switch(msg.data.action) { case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break; case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break; case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break; case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break; case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break; case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break; case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break; case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break; case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break; case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break; case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break; case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break; } }; function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() { clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout); player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; } function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() { player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay ); } function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() { postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"}); } function reactivate() { playing = false; connect_to_assigned_server(); } function player_log_response(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse'; data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final; data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket; data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id; data_array.logs = data.logs; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_message_search(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_message_search'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.search_term = data.search_term; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_more_messages(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_more_messages'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function check_channel_status(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'check_channel_status'; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); } else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); } } function check_channel_status_response(data) { postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected }); } function join_publisher_channel(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel'; if (typeof data.api_key !== 'undefined') { data_array.api_key = data.api_key; } else { data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.username = data.username; data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group; data_array.display_name = data.display_name; data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on; data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; data_array.current_page = data.current_page; data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; data_array.from_react = data.from_react; } var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' }); } function session_static_info(msg) { set_static_session_info(msg.data); start_log(); } function connect_to_distributor(msg) { publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel; remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip; socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); switch(data.type) { case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break; } }; } function session_info_interval() { postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' }); logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time); } function server_assignment_response(data) { assigned_server = data.selected_server; socket.close(); connect_to_assigned_server(); } function request_server_assignment() { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment'; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function connect_to_assigned_server() { socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server }); console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server); postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' }); connected_to_assigned = true; if (playing) { postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' }); } }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ } switch(data.type) { case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break; case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break; case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break; case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break; case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break; case 'player_log_request': case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break; case 'PlayerLogRequest': case 'new_tweet': case 'new_latest_news': case 'delete_report': case 'add_report': case 'add_ref_doc': case 'calendar_change': case 'calendar_insert': case 'calendar_delete': case 'new_note': case 'AppStart': case 'AppStop': case 'BroadcasterStarted': case 'BroadcasterStopped': case 'added_cme_report': case 'updated_cme_report': case 'added_cme_commentary': case 'updated_cme_commentary': case 'server_assignment_response': case 'initial_messages': case 'message_categories': case 'more_messages': case 'matched_messages': pass_straight_to_post_message(data); break; case 'output': case 'server_ping': case 'reconnect': case 'disconnect': break; } }; socket.onerror = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type }); console.log(event); postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' }); }; socket.onclose = function(event) { console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason); socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay); reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor; connected_to_assigned = false; }; } function close_socket() { clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout); socket_close_timeout = null; socket.onclose = function(event) {}; socket.onmessage = function(event) {}; socket.onerror = function(event) {}; socket.close(1000); console.log('Socket Closed'); } function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) { data.action = data.type; postMessage(data); } function join_player_channel(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'join_player_channel'; data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel; data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; data_array.username = data.username; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status; data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; data_array.current_page = data.current_page; data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' }); playing = true; } function start_log_response(data) { session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id; session_info_interval(); } function application_refresh_start(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); } } function application_refresh_stop(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); } } function set_static_session_info(data) { session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename; session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name; session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent; session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version; session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled; session_info.platform = data.platform; session_info.player_version = data.player_version; session_info.stream = data.stream; session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol; session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target; session_info.session_email = data.session_email; session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; session_info.application_name = data.application_name; session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; } function start_log() { var session_start_date = new Date(); session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime(); var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec']; var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear(); var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log'; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.username = session_info.session_email; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.webrtc_protocol = ''; data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0); data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream; data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function update_session_info(data) { var data_array = {}; var msg_string = ''; var current_date = new Date(); var current_time = current_date.getTime(); session_info.protocol = data.protocol; session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2); session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time; session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time; session_info.jitter = data.jitter; session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss; session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency; session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score; session_info.restarts = data.restarts; if (socket_emits == 0) { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full'; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename; data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name; data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent; data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version; data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled; data_array.platform = session_info.platform; data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.delay_target = 0; data_array.op_sys = ''; data_array.flash_version = ''; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } else { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data'; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } socket_emits++; if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; } }