US Inflation In Focus As Energy Shock Clouds Price Growth Outlook
• Headline CPI forecast to accelerate sharply on energy surge • Core inflation to steady as goods rebound offsets shelter costs • Ceasefire drives oil lower, volatility risks remain elevated • PCE data to offer backward-looking check on inflation trend
This week’s US data should help policymakers better assess the emerging global energy shock and its implications for inflation expectations.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March consumer price data. Analysts expect headline CPI to rise 3.3% y/y, accelerating from 2.4% previously. On a monthly basis, CPI is seen increasing 0.9%, up from 0.3% in February.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to edge up to 2.6% y/y from 2.5%, while the m/m pace is expected to hold at 0.2%.
Citi economist Veronica Clark said headline inflation likely picked up further in April on the back of stronger energy prices, but emphasised that markets will remain focused on underlying core dynamics.
“Core goods prices could be firmer in March compared with recent months, with a 0.27% increase in our forecast. However, this largely reflects a 1.8% rise in used car prices, which have lagged wholesale trends and should begin to catch up. Other goods categories should remain relatively subdued.”
Within services, economists expect a further slowdown in shelter cost growth. Rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) continued to moderate in February, with Citi projecting a 0.18% increase.
“The biggest source of uncertainty is airfares, given their sensitivity to energy prices,” Clark added. “Upside risks could build in the coming months, depending on how long jet fuel costs remain elevated.”
Feed through costs for drivers (source: US Energy Information Administration)
The shifts continue
Geopolitical developments remain fluid. On Tuesday evening, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, reducing immediate risks of escalation.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy flows — has eased supply concerns. Oil prices fell sharply overnight, with crude opening around 13% lower and slipping back below USD 100/bbl.
Zaheer Anwari, co-founder and CEO of The Revacy Fund, said the oil market would remain highly sensitive to the ceasefire's durability and the extent to which supply routes normalise. “If flows continue to stabilise and diplomacy gains traction, further downside is possible. However, if the ceasefire falters or tensions re-escalate, the risk premium could return quickly, driving renewed volatility.”
Recent geopolitical developments will not be reflected in this week’s inflation releases. Alongside CPI, investors will also assess February personal income and spending data, which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the core PCE deflator.
These figures may already appear somewhat dated, but still provide an important benchmark. Consensus expectations are for both headline and core PCE to rise 0.4% m/m.
Speaking earlier in the week, prior to the ceasefire, BMO strategist Ian Lyngen said it was too soon to assess meaningful pass-through into core prices, though risks remained elevated while oil traded above USD 100/bbl.
“While reopening the Strait of Hormuz would ease some of these concerns, the key uncertainty is how far energy prices retrace as macro conditions stabilise.”
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• Headline CPI forecast to accelerate sharply on energy surge
• Core inflation to steady as goods rebound offsets shelter costs
• Ceasefire drives oil lower, volatility risks remain elevated
• PCE data to offer backward-looking check on inflation trend
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
Updated 8 April 2026 | 15:30 GMT
This week’s US data should help policymakers better assess the emerging global energy shock and its implications for inflation expectations.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March consumer price data. Analysts expect headline CPI to rise 3.3% y/y, accelerating from 2.4% previously. On a monthly basis, CPI is seen increasing 0.9%, up from 0.3% in February.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to edge up to 2.6% y/y from 2.5%, while the m/m pace is expected to hold at 0.2%.
Citi economist Veronica Clark said headline inflation likely picked up further in April on the back of stronger energy prices, but emphasised that markets will remain focused on underlying core dynamics.
“Core goods prices could be firmer in March compared with recent months, with a 0.27% increase in our forecast. However, this largely reflects a 1.8% rise in used car prices, which have lagged wholesale trends and should begin to catch up. Other goods categories should remain relatively subdued.”
Within services, economists expect a further slowdown in shelter cost growth. Rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) continued to moderate in February, with Citi projecting a 0.18% increase.
“The biggest source of uncertainty is airfares, given their sensitivity to energy prices,” Clark added. “Upside risks could build in the coming months, depending on how long jet fuel costs remain elevated.”
Geopolitical developments remain fluid. On Tuesday evening, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, reducing immediate risks of escalation.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy flows — has eased supply concerns. Oil prices fell sharply overnight, with crude opening around 13% lower and slipping back below USD 100/bbl.
Zaheer Anwari, co-founder and CEO of The Revacy Fund, said the oil market would remain highly sensitive to the ceasefire's durability and the extent to which supply routes normalise. “If flows continue to stabilise and diplomacy gains traction, further downside is possible. However, if the ceasefire falters or tensions re-escalate, the risk premium could return quickly, driving renewed volatility.”
Recent geopolitical developments will not be reflected in this week’s inflation releases. Alongside CPI, investors will also assess February personal income and spending data, which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the core PCE deflator.
These figures may already appear somewhat dated, but still provide an important benchmark. Consensus expectations are for both headline and core PCE to rise 0.4% m/m.
Speaking earlier in the week, prior to the ceasefire, BMO strategist Ian Lyngen said it was too soon to assess meaningful pass-through into core prices, though risks remained elevated while oil traded above USD 100/bbl.
“While reopening the Strait of Hormuz would ease some of these concerns, the key uncertainty is how far energy prices retrace as macro conditions stabilise.”