The far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen will back a motion to topple the French government, after Prime Minister Michel Barnier failed to agree to all of its demands on next year’s budget.

The premier declared at the National Assembly on Monday that he would use a constitutional mechanism that allows for the adoption of the social security bill without a vote, but opens the door to no-confidence motions. Immediately after that announcement, the National Rally said it would support a no-confidence vote. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

Crude oil prices have come off their earlier highs after starting the day brightly following some stronger-than-expected activity data out of China at the weekend. This could be a pivotal week for the crude oil market. With key US economic data on the horizon and the OPEC+ meeting later this week to discuss oil production targets, market participants are bracing for significant developments. Persistent concerns over demand and rising supply from non-OPEC sources have pressured prices. So, unless OPEC+ makes a substantial announcement, it’s unlikely that another delay in planned production increases will offer long-term support to prices.

Demand challenges for oil

The OPEC+, which controls nearly half of the global oil output, faces significant challenges as it aims to reverse production cuts by 2025. Stagnant global demand, coupled with increasing supply from non-OPEC producers, continues to create headwinds, pushing prices lower. Despite efforts to stabilize the market, oil prices have turned negative for the year, dropping by about 20-25% from their peak hit in April. Despite some strength observed in Chinese manufacturing data, there are no major signs of a big turnaround in demand growth. So, it will be up to the supply side of the equation to help lift prices. Speaking of… (StoneX – Continue Reading)

Fitch Ratings’ ‘neutral’ outlook for the global automotive sector reflects our expectation of a stable production environment, with global light vehicle sales projected to increase by about 2%. This growth will be unevenly distributed across regions, as European and Chinese markets face macroeconomic challenges. We expect pricing to remain subdued due to escalating competition.

Fitch expects interest rates to continue dropping in 2025 in all major geographies, albeit at a slower pace in the US. We anticipate consumers will return to the market with more favourable borrowing rates, particularly once election uncertainties in the US and Germany are resolved.

The vehicle mix is likely to change as previously priced-out consumers re-enter the market, adding further pressure on profitability. Restructuring the European manufacturing footprint will also put pressure on cashflows. (Fitch – Continue Reading)

JPMorgan expects a near-term downturn for base metals in early 2025 due to potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods but sees a rebound later in the year, supported by stronger Chinese economic stimulus and improved valuations.

“While base metals price forecasts have been marked lower due to these tariff concerns, there is an expectation of a favorable risk/reward scenario for investing in base metals in the coming quarters,” analyst said.

JP Morgan’s Greg Shearer lowered the base metals price forecasts, due to tariff concerns and a weakened Chinese yuan.

However, a V-shaped recovery is expected beginning in the second quarter, with copper prices reaching $10,400 per metric ton by year-end and aluminum climbing to $2,850/mt. (Investing – Continue Reading)