Headline annual inflation in the Eurozone has exceeded the target rate of the European Central Bank this month, a shift that some analysts say has reduced the chance of a major interest rate cut from the European Central Bank next month.
The EU statistics office Eurostat said Friday that its initial estimate for consumer price growth in the euro area this month rose in line with market forecasts to 2.3% from 2.0%in October.
The increase pushed the rate past the ECB target of 2.0% over the medium term.
The Eurozone core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy, held again this month at 2.7% and was below the market forecast of 2.8%
September’s monthly inflation rate fell to -0.3% from 0.3% last month.
The Eurostat report said services remained the main driver of annual price growth with a rise of 3.9%. Conversely, the monthly rate declined 0.9%.
Energy prices declined at an annual rate of 1.9%, according to the data.
Recent declines in purchasing managers’ indices has fuelled speculation that the ECB might institute a “jumbo” 50bp cut next month to spur on economic growth, but Friday’s increase in consumer price growth has likely thwarted that plan, according to some analysts.
“There's a strong case for the ECB to cut again in December as both inflation and growth undershot their projections, but probably not strong enough for them to cut by 50bp (for now),” tweeted Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management.
Oxford Economics wrote: “As expected, November's eurozone inflation showed a small rise, but this mostly reflects base effects in energy prices rather than renewed price pressures. As such, we continue to expect the ECB to cut rates by 25bps at its December meeting as activity remains lacklustre.”
Expectations among traders leaned toward a 25bp cut following the news.
Most of Big Four report increases in rate of price growth
Data from three of the four largest economies in the Eurozone released previously sent mixed signals on consumer price growth in the currency area as a whole.
On Thursday, Spain reported that its preliminary annual EU-harmonised price growth increased an in-line 2.4% from 1.8%.
Later that day, Germany said initial data produced a reading of 2.4% for November, which matched the October result and was short of the 2.6% market forecast.
On Friday morning, France contributed to the cause by announcing an in-line increase in its headline rate to 1.7% from 1.6% last month.
Reporting concurrently with the EU, Italy said Friday that its EU-harmonised rate surged to 1.6%, which beat the 1.5% estimate and the 1.0% reading last month.
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function check_channel_status(data) {
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function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
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data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
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socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
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function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
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remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
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function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
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function server_assignment_response(data) {
assigned_server = data.selected_server;
socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
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function request_server_assignment() {
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postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
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postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
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case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
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case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
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case 'calendar_insert':
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case 'AppStart':
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case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
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case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
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postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
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postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
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function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
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function join_player_channel(data) {
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postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
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session_info_interval();
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function application_refresh_stop(data) {
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session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
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function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
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data_array.threshold = 0;
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data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
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data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
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data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
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data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
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data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Headline rate jumps as expected
- Core rate shows surprise slip
- Analysts say ECB to cut by 25bp next month
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
29 November 2024 | 12:00 GMT
Headline annual inflation in the Eurozone has exceeded the target rate of the European Central Bank this month, a shift that some analysts say has reduced the chance of a major interest rate cut from the European Central Bank next month.
The EU statistics office Eurostat said Friday that its initial estimate for consumer price growth in the euro area this month rose in line with market forecasts to 2.3% from 2.0%in October.
The increase pushed the rate past the ECB target of 2.0% over the medium term.
The Eurozone core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy, held again this month at 2.7% and was below the market forecast of 2.8%
September’s monthly inflation rate fell to -0.3% from 0.3% last month.
The Eurostat report said services remained the main driver of annual price growth with a rise of 3.9%. Conversely, the monthly rate declined 0.9%.
Energy prices declined at an annual rate of 1.9%, according to the data.
Recent declines in purchasing managers’ indices has fuelled speculation that the ECB might institute a “jumbo” 50bp cut next month to spur on economic growth, but Friday’s increase in consumer price growth has likely thwarted that plan, according to some analysts.
“There's a strong case for the ECB to cut again in December as both inflation and growth undershot their projections, but probably not strong enough for them to cut by 50bp (for now),” tweeted Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management.
Oxford Economics wrote: “As expected, November's eurozone inflation showed a small rise, but this mostly reflects base effects in energy prices rather than renewed price pressures. As such, we continue to expect the ECB to cut rates by 25bps at its December meeting as activity remains lacklustre.”
Expectations among traders leaned toward a 25bp cut following the news.
Most of Big Four report increases in rate of price growth
Data from three of the four largest economies in the Eurozone released previously sent mixed signals on consumer price growth in the currency area as a whole.
On Thursday, Spain reported that its preliminary annual EU-harmonised price growth increased an in-line 2.4% from 1.8%.
Later that day, Germany said initial data produced a reading of 2.4% for November, which matched the October result and was short of the 2.6% market forecast.
On Friday morning, France contributed to the cause by announcing an in-line increase in its headline rate to 1.7% from 1.6% last month.
Reporting concurrently with the EU, Italy said Friday that its EU-harmonised rate surged to 1.6%, which beat the 1.5% estimate and the 1.0% reading last month.
Sign up for LiveSquawk and receive a discount with the code LSQEC$