FRANKFURT – “Erratic changes” in US trade policy have effectively killed any optimism among financial market experts in Germany, according to one of the country’s leading economics institutes.
The ZEW think tank said Tuesday that its April expectations indicator for Germany in the coming half-year plummeted into negative territory to -14.0, a historic swing of more than 65 points from the 51.6 result in March and well short of the 10.0 market estimate.
According to data from the institute, the April measure was the worst since July 2023.
“This is the strongest decline in expectations since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022,” the ZEW explained.
The current conditions indicator improved for a fifth straight month with a rise to -81.2 points, which outpaced the -86.9 estimate and -87.6 last month.
The expectations index for the Eurozone crashed to -18.5 from 39.8 points last month, the ZEW said.
EUR/USD was little changed immediately after the announcement.
Source: ZEW
ZEW President blames Washington
“The erratic changes in the US trade policy are weighing heavily on expectations in Germany, which have sharply declined,” said ZEW President Achim Wambach. “It is not only the consequences the announced reciprocal tariffs may have on global trade, but also the dynamics of their changes, that have massively increased global uncertainty.”
How much this measure has shifted in a month is astounding. The institute’s investor outlook reading in March hit its highest mark since the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022 thanks to Berlin’s plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn on domestic infrastructure and the German military over the next 12 years.
Now, growth concerns have moved back to the forefront after the US slapped 25% import duties on European steel, aluminium, passenger cars and light trucks, and 10% tariffs on most all other products. US President Donald Trump said last week that he has paused a 20% tariff on EU goods for 90 days.
“The global business community is extremely unsettled and will postpone investments for the time being,” wrote Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank. “German industry, with its strong capital goods sector, is particularly hard hit.”
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- Fastest rate of decline since Russian invasion of Ukraine
- US tariff vacillation sows confusion
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
15 April 2025 | 10:00 GMT
FRANKFURT – “Erratic changes” in US trade policy have effectively killed any optimism among financial market experts in Germany, according to one of the country’s leading economics institutes.
The ZEW think tank said Tuesday that its April expectations indicator for Germany in the coming half-year plummeted into negative territory to -14.0, a historic swing of more than 65 points from the 51.6 result in March and well short of the 10.0 market estimate.
According to data from the institute, the April measure was the worst since July 2023.
“This is the strongest decline in expectations since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022,” the ZEW explained.
The current conditions indicator improved for a fifth straight month with a rise to -81.2 points, which outpaced the -86.9 estimate and -87.6 last month.
The expectations index for the Eurozone crashed to -18.5 from 39.8 points last month, the ZEW said.
EUR/USD was little changed immediately after the announcement.
ZEW President blames Washington
“The erratic changes in the US trade policy are weighing heavily on expectations in Germany, which have sharply declined,” said ZEW President Achim Wambach. “It is not only the consequences the announced reciprocal tariffs may have on global trade, but also the dynamics of their changes, that have massively increased global uncertainty.”
How much this measure has shifted in a month is astounding. The institute’s investor outlook reading in March hit its highest mark since the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022 thanks to Berlin’s plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn on domestic infrastructure and the German military over the next 12 years.
Now, growth concerns have moved back to the forefront after the US slapped 25% import duties on European steel, aluminium, passenger cars and light trucks, and 10% tariffs on most all other products. US President Donald Trump said last week that he has paused a 20% tariff on EU goods for 90 days.
“The global business community is extremely unsettled and will postpone investments for the time being,” wrote Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank. “German industry, with its strong capital goods sector, is particularly hard hit.”
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