Headline annual inflation in the Eurozone rose in July, suggesting the kind of sticky consumer price growth that could cause some monetary policymakers at the European Central Bank to shy away from a September rate cut.
The EU statistics office Eurostat said its initial estimate for headline annual consumer price growth in the euro area grew to 2.6% this month from June’s 2.5%, which was also the July forecast from economists.
The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy, held steady once again with an unexpectedly high reading of 2.9% for the third straight month. The market had predicted a drop to 2.8%. Services remained the main driver of price growth with a rise of 4.0% y/y after readings of 4.1% in May and June.
July’s monthly inflation rate dropped to a flat reading, which compared to the -0.1% estimate and the 0.2% reported in May and June.
“Energy inflation contributed positively for the first time since the beginning of 2023 as energy prices rose 1.3% y/y,” Nordea said in a note, “and most of disinflation in food and non-energy industrial goods prices also seems to be over.
“Uncertainty around the future trends is substantial, and the ECB is likely to continue in a mode of no precommitments, but we still find another rate cut in September likely.”
But the latest increase in household costs has cast more doubt on another moved down at the next meeting, according to Franziska Palmas at Capital Economics. “While the fall in services inflation means a rate cut in September is still more likely than not, it is not a done deal. And until services inflation falls more significantly the ECB is likely to continue to ease policy only slowly.”
Despite the rising in inflation, traders were still pricing in rate cuts for September and December.
The ECB held rates steady this month after shaving 25 basis points from its key rates in June.
National data signalled rise
Europe’s four biggest economies set the stage for the euro area increase. Spain said Tuesday that its headline annual EU-harmonised inflation fell to 2.9% and below the 3.2% estimate and 3.6% last month.
But later in the day, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, post EU-harmonised inflation at 2.6%, a tenth above the market forecast and June’s result.
France said early Wednesday morning that HICP rose to 2.6%, which fell short of the economists’ consensus of 2.8% but outpaced last month’s 2.5.
Italy reported consumer price growth of 1.7%, which handily beat both the 1.2% market outlook and June’s 0.9%.
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function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
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function join_publisher_channel(data) {
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data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
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socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
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function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
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function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
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remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
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function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
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function server_assignment_response(data) {
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socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
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function request_server_assignment() {
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postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
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postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
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case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
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case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
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case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
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case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
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case 'added_cme_commentary':
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case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
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case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
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postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout);
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socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
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function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
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function join_player_channel(data) {
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data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.username = data.username;
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postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
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function start_log_response(data) {
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session_info_interval();
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function application_refresh_stop(data) {
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function set_static_session_info(data) {
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session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
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function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
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function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
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data_array.date = current_time;
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data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
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data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
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data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Core rate unexpectedly stubborn
- Price growth rises in three biggest euro area nations
- Traders still betting on two cuts this year
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
31 July 2024 | 10:00 GMT
Headline annual inflation in the Eurozone rose in July, suggesting the kind of sticky consumer price growth that could cause some monetary policymakers at the European Central Bank to shy away from a September rate cut.
The EU statistics office Eurostat said its initial estimate for headline annual consumer price growth in the euro area grew to 2.6% this month from June’s 2.5%, which was also the July forecast from economists.
The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy, held steady once again with an unexpectedly high reading of 2.9% for the third straight month. The market had predicted a drop to 2.8%. Services remained the main driver of price growth with a rise of 4.0% y/y after readings of 4.1% in May and June.
July’s monthly inflation rate dropped to a flat reading, which compared to the -0.1% estimate and the 0.2% reported in May and June.
“Energy inflation contributed positively for the first time since the beginning of 2023 as energy prices rose 1.3% y/y,” Nordea said in a note, “and most of disinflation in food and non-energy industrial goods prices also seems to be over.
“Uncertainty around the future trends is substantial, and the ECB is likely to continue in a mode of no precommitments, but we still find another rate cut in September likely.”
But the latest increase in household costs has cast more doubt on another moved down at the next meeting, according to Franziska Palmas at Capital Economics. “While the fall in services inflation means a rate cut in September is still more likely than not, it is not a done deal. And until services inflation falls more significantly the ECB is likely to continue to ease policy only slowly.”
Despite the rising in inflation, traders were still pricing in rate cuts for September and December.
The ECB held rates steady this month after shaving 25 basis points from its key rates in June.
National data signalled rise
Europe’s four biggest economies set the stage for the euro area increase. Spain said Tuesday that its headline annual EU-harmonised inflation fell to 2.9% and below the 3.2% estimate and 3.6% last month.
But later in the day, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, post EU-harmonised inflation at 2.6%, a tenth above the market forecast and June’s result.
France said early Wednesday morning that HICP rose to 2.6%, which fell short of the economists’ consensus of 2.8% but outpaced last month’s 2.5.
Italy reported consumer price growth of 1.7%, which handily beat both the 1.2% market outlook and June’s 0.9%.
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