Swiss rate-setters are widely expected to keep their key interest rates at current levels Thursday, a policy they may repeat for the rest of the year, according to analysts.
An economists’ poll predicted an unchanged Swiss National Bank policy rate of zero percent. A hold this month would repeat the decisions in September and December, which followed six straight reductions.
Headline annual inflation in the Alpine country last month held 0.1%, more than expected and enough to keep it near the bottom of the SNB’s target range of 0-2% for consumer price growth. The annual number was forecast to be negative, which could have supported arguments for taking the benchmark interest rate below zero, but February’s unexpectedly high monthly consumer price growth of 0.6% showed rising household costs.
All in all, it looks like a wash on the price side for SNB officials amid upward and downward pressure, and now the Iran war is muddling outlooks for both consumer costs and economic growth.
The war is having multiple effects on the world in general, and Switzerland in particular. For one, it has increased the attractiveness of the Swiss franc, widely seen as a safe-haven currency, which has some disinflationary impact, said ING’s Charlotte de Montpellier. “This is bad news for the SNB, as it risks pushing imported prices down even further and therefore lowering inflation in Switzerland. In addition, it weighs on the competitiveness of Swiss exporting companies.”
But there’s more: “The war in the Middle East also entails an upside risk to inflation, given the rise in energy prices on global markets. The two effects work in opposite directions. As a result, the SNB finds itself facing a highly uncertain situation.”
This means the Swiss central bankers are on spectator duty for a while, she explained. “The SNB will probably prefer to wait and see which of the two effects will have the greater impact on inflation prospects before acting in one direction or the other.”
And that could take months, according to analysts. A Reuters poll of economists had virtually all saying the SNB will leave rates on hold for the rest of this year.
More forex market activity ahead?
With the strength of the franc pushing EUR/CHF below 0.90 earlier this month, interventions remain a hot topic at the SNB, whose officials have repeatedly said the bank is ready to intervene.
In fact, after the US and Israel opened their campaign against Iran, the SNB issued a statement that it was “more prepared” to act on foreign exchange markets due to changes in the international situation. The subject of intervention is likely to be a hot topic during the press conference scheduled after Thursday’s rate decision.
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- Consumer price growth on target
- Strong currency, rising energy costs may buffet prices
- Poll sees rates at current levels all year
- Thursday’s decision set for 08:30 GMT / 09:30 CET
- Press conference scheduled for 09:00 GMT / 10 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
18 March 2026 | 09:30 GMT
Swiss rate-setters are widely expected to keep their key interest rates at current levels Thursday, a policy they may repeat for the rest of the year, according to analysts.
An economists’ poll predicted an unchanged Swiss National Bank policy rate of zero percent. A hold this month would repeat the decisions in September and December, which followed six straight reductions.
Headline annual inflation in the Alpine country last month held 0.1%, more than expected and enough to keep it near the bottom of the SNB’s target range of 0-2% for consumer price growth. The annual number was forecast to be negative, which could have supported arguments for taking the benchmark interest rate below zero, but February’s unexpectedly high monthly consumer price growth of 0.6% showed rising household costs.
All in all, it looks like a wash on the price side for SNB officials amid upward and downward pressure, and now the Iran war is muddling outlooks for both consumer costs and economic growth.
The war is having multiple effects on the world in general, and Switzerland in particular. For one, it has increased the attractiveness of the Swiss franc, widely seen as a safe-haven currency, which has some disinflationary impact, said ING’s Charlotte de Montpellier. “This is bad news for the SNB, as it risks pushing imported prices down even further and therefore lowering inflation in Switzerland. In addition, it weighs on the competitiveness of Swiss exporting companies.”
But there’s more: “The war in the Middle East also entails an upside risk to inflation, given the rise in energy prices on global markets. The two effects work in opposite directions. As a result, the SNB finds itself facing a highly uncertain situation.”
This means the Swiss central bankers are on spectator duty for a while, she explained. “The SNB will probably prefer to wait and see which of the two effects will have the greater impact on inflation prospects before acting in one direction or the other.”
And that could take months, according to analysts. A Reuters poll of economists had virtually all saying the SNB will leave rates on hold for the rest of this year.
More forex market activity ahead?
With the strength of the franc pushing EUR/CHF below 0.90 earlier this month, interventions remain a hot topic at the SNB, whose officials have repeatedly said the bank is ready to intervene.
In fact, after the US and Israel opened their campaign against Iran, the SNB issued a statement that it was “more prepared” to act on foreign exchange markets due to changes in the international situation. The subject of intervention is likely to be a hot topic during the press conference scheduled after Thursday’s rate decision.
Sign up for LiveSquawk and receive a discount with the code LSQEC$