FRANKFURT –– Waning optimism among German managers continues to surprise economists as business confidence in Europe’s largest economy took another unexpected tumble this month.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Thursday that the results of this month’s survey of local business officials showed the headline reading falling for a third straight month with a decline to 87.0 points, its worst showing since February. The market had expected a rise to 89.0 from last month’s 88.6.
The expectations component of the index – a measure for the coming six months – decreased to 86.9 points versus the market forecast for a rise to 89.3 and a downwardly revised 88.8 in June.
The current conditions component slid to 87.1 points, which compared to an anticipated climb to 88.5 from 88.3 last month.
“Skepticism regarding the coming months has increased considerably,” Ifo said. “The German economy is stuck in crisis.”
The thinktank noted that the business climate in manufacturing has “fallen significantly”.
Germany’s DAX 40 index of blue chip stocks continued lower after the news, which followed Wednesday’s US tech sell-off that pushed the Nasdaq Composite index down more than 3.6% for its largest single-day percentage drop since October 2022.
The trend is no friend to Germany.
Outlook for Germany, Europe darkens
The Ifo results came on the heels of more bad news in the form of the latest purchasing managers’ indices, which were released Wednesday. They showed another fall in the manufacturing measure, with the overall reading dropping into contraction territory. S&P Global said its preliminary headline composite PMI for July eased to a four-month low of 48.7 and thus below the 50 level that separates growth from decline. Its manufacturing index slid to 46.2, a three-month low, and the services reading of 52.0 was the worst in four months.
Investors have been increasingly pessimistic about Germany. Polling results from Sentix and the ZEW economic thinktank moved lower this month, with the expectations component of the latter dropping for the first time in a year.
“The upswing in Europe is stalling again,” warned March Bruetsch, chief economist at Swiss Life. Writing on the social media platform X, he said: “In addition to weak figures from France, the Ifo business climate index for Germany is also disappointing today. The ECB's monetary policy is now too restrictive.”
- Headline reading, components fall unexpectedly
- Decline follows further slide in investor confidence
- Composite PMI enters contraction territory
- Data adds to worries of faltering European rebound
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
25 July 2024 | 09:00 GMT
FRANKFURT –– Waning optimism among German managers continues to surprise economists as business confidence in Europe’s largest economy took another unexpected tumble this month.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Thursday that the results of this month’s survey of local business officials showed the headline reading falling for a third straight month with a decline to 87.0 points, its worst showing since February. The market had expected a rise to 89.0 from last month’s 88.6.
The expectations component of the index – a measure for the coming six months – decreased to 86.9 points versus the market forecast for a rise to 89.3 and a downwardly revised 88.8 in June.
The current conditions component slid to 87.1 points, which compared to an anticipated climb to 88.5 from 88.3 last month.
“Skepticism regarding the coming months has increased considerably,” Ifo said. “The German economy is stuck in crisis.”
The thinktank noted that the business climate in manufacturing has “fallen significantly”.
Germany’s DAX 40 index of blue chip stocks continued lower after the news, which followed Wednesday’s US tech sell-off that pushed the Nasdaq Composite index down more than 3.6% for its largest single-day percentage drop since October 2022.
Outlook for Germany, Europe darkens
The Ifo results came on the heels of more bad news in the form of the latest purchasing managers’ indices, which were released Wednesday. They showed another fall in the manufacturing measure, with the overall reading dropping into contraction territory. S&P Global said its preliminary headline composite PMI for July eased to a four-month low of 48.7 and thus below the 50 level that separates growth from decline. Its manufacturing index slid to 46.2, a three-month low, and the services reading of 52.0 was the worst in four months.
Investors have been increasingly pessimistic about Germany. Polling results from Sentix and the ZEW economic thinktank moved lower this month, with the expectations component of the latter dropping for the first time in a year.
“The upswing in Europe is stalling again,” warned March Bruetsch, chief economist at Swiss Life. Writing on the social media platform X, he said: “In addition to weak figures from France, the Ifo business climate index for Germany is also disappointing today. The ECB's monetary policy is now too restrictive.”
The European Central Bank paused its rate cutting cycle this month after lowering borrowing costs in June, and late last month the Swiss National Bank eased its benchmark rate for a second time this year.
Sign up for LiveSquawk and receive a discount with the code LSQEC$