FRANKFURT – German managers are set to voice more optimism about their prospects for a fifth straight month and thus buttress the growing opinion among analysts that any recession in Europe’s largest economy should be minor and short-lived.
Economists said the headline business climate index for Germany due Wednesday from the country’s Ifo economics institute is expected to rise to 91.2 points this month from the January reading of 90.2, which would be the fifth consecutive improvement.
The expectations component of the index – a measure of the coming six months – is forecast higher at 88.4 versus the 86.4 mark set in January, which would also mark a fifth straight increase. This month’s current assessment reading is expected to grow to 95.0 after an unexpected dip to 94.1 in January.
Checking the signs
Capital Economics said, “The rise in the Sentix [index of investor morale] this month suggests that sentiment probably continued to improve. Meanwhile, truck toll mileage was slightly stronger so far in February than in January in a tentative sign that industrial activity may also have improved a bit.”
German pollster Sentix said earlier this month that the mood among investors about the world’s fourth largest economy headed north for the fourth consecutive month, and the headline indicator hit its highest mark since March of last year.
Soc Gen said Ifo business confidence, along with other indicators, “should show a continued bottoming out in February, propelled by lower wholesale energy prices and the recovery in China.”
But that position was partially undermined by new data. The flash February purchasing managers’ indices from Germany released Tuesday showed a surprise decline in the manufacturing indicator to 46.5 points, well below the expected 48.1 and short of the 47.3 mark from December. The services reading showed strength, which lifted the composite number to 51.1 and above the growth/contraction border at 50.
A wide range of organisations have raised their German growth forecasts for this year. Even the Bundesbank, the country’s notoriously gloomy central bank, has lifted its expectations, noting Monday that the economy is expected to perform “a little better” than it had anticipated at the end of last year.
The upward revision followed last week's revised forecast from the European Commission, which said it expected the German economy to grow 0.2%, a significant upgrade from its previous prediction of a 0.6% decline.
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- Headline reading forecast at 91.2 (prev 90.2)
- Increases expected for outlook, present situation
- PMIs offer mixed signals
- ZEW investor confidence rises again
- Data due Wednesday at 09:00 GMT/10:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
21 February 2023 | 11:15 GMT
FRANKFURT – German managers are set to voice more optimism about their prospects for a fifth straight month and thus buttress the growing opinion among analysts that any recession in Europe’s largest economy should be minor and short-lived.
Economists said the headline business climate index for Germany due Wednesday from the country’s Ifo economics institute is expected to rise to 91.2 points this month from the January reading of 90.2, which would be the fifth consecutive improvement.
The expectations component of the index – a measure of the coming six months – is forecast higher at 88.4 versus the 86.4 mark set in January, which would also mark a fifth straight increase. This month’s current assessment reading is expected to grow to 95.0 after an unexpected dip to 94.1 in January.
Checking the signs
Capital Economics said, “The rise in the Sentix [index of investor morale] this month suggests that sentiment probably continued to improve. Meanwhile, truck toll mileage was slightly stronger so far in February than in January in a tentative sign that industrial activity may also have improved a bit.”
German pollster Sentix said earlier this month that the mood among investors about the world’s fourth largest economy headed north for the fourth consecutive month, and the headline indicator hit its highest mark since March of last year.
On Tuesday, rising investor confidence was confirmed by results from this month’s poll conducted by Germany’s ZEW economics institute, which handily beat forecasts and last month’s readings.
Soc Gen said Ifo business confidence, along with other indicators, “should show a continued bottoming out in February, propelled by lower wholesale energy prices and the recovery in China.”
But that position was partially undermined by new data. The flash February purchasing managers’ indices from Germany released Tuesday showed a surprise decline in the manufacturing indicator to 46.5 points, well below the expected 48.1 and short of the 47.3 mark from December. The services reading showed strength, which lifted the composite number to 51.1 and above the growth/contraction border at 50.
A wide range of organisations have raised their German growth forecasts for this year. Even the Bundesbank, the country’s notoriously gloomy central bank, has lifted its expectations, noting Monday that the economy is expected to perform “a little better” than it had anticipated at the end of last year.
The upward revision followed last week's revised forecast from the European Commission, which said it expected the German economy to grow 0.2%, a significant upgrade from its previous prediction of a 0.6% decline.