FRANKFURT – Financial market experts have again expressed unexpectedly strong optimism about Germany’s economic prospects over the next half year as growth concerns continue to ease.
The forward-looking expectations component from this month’s poll conducted by Germany’s ZEW economics institute soared to 28.1 points and past the market forecast of 23.0 and January’s reading of 16.9.
The ZEW said Tuesday that its indicator for the next half-year was in positive territory for the second straight month, and February marked the fifth consecutive improvement in the confidence measure.
The ZEW’s current situation indicator improved for a fourth straight month with a rise to -45.1 points to beat the market estimate of -55.0 and the January mark of -58.6.
Both the outlook and present view of the Eurozone were also better, the ZEW said.
For Germany, “A large fraction of the survey participants expects the economic situation to improve in six months’ time,” ZEW President Achim Wambach said. “However, the current situation is still assessed as relatively unfavourable.
“As in the previous month, the increase in expectations can be traced back to higher profit expectations in the energy- and export-oriented sectors as well as the consumer-related parts of the economy. Expectations for long-term interest rates are also rising, and the banking sector indicator has reached its highest level since 2004.”
But higher interest rates are only one factor on the minds of market players. Noting that recession in Germany has been “seemingly averted”, local pollster Sentix said earlier this month that the mood among investors about the world’s fourth largest economy headed north for the fourth straight month, and the headline indicator hit its highest mark since March of last year.
Plus, the Dax 40 index of German blue chip stocks is up more than 16% over the past six months, and energy prices have been falling.
Optimists pointed to Tuesday’s purchasing managers’ indices as another indication of improvement in Germany even though the manufacturing measure was worse than expected. Pollster S&P Global said order backlogs in the sector were at their lowest level in 18 months, and new orders were down.
But the composite reading for Europe’s largest economy, which includes the service sector, jumped to 51.1, which put it in growth territory and ahead of the estimate of 50.3.
And even the country’s often gloomy and doomy central bank, the Bundesbank, has spotted a silver lining, noting Monday that the domestic economy is expected to perform “a little better” than policymakers had anticipated at the end of last year.
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- Outlook, present situation components beat estimates
- Easing growth concerns boost optimism
- Mixed PMIs still suggest growth
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
21 February 2023 | 10:50 GMT
FRANKFURT – Financial market experts have again expressed unexpectedly strong optimism about Germany’s economic prospects over the next half year as growth concerns continue to ease.
The forward-looking expectations component from this month’s poll conducted by Germany’s ZEW economics institute soared to 28.1 points and past the market forecast of 23.0 and January’s reading of 16.9.
The ZEW said Tuesday that its indicator for the next half-year was in positive territory for the second straight month, and February marked the fifth consecutive improvement in the confidence measure.
The ZEW’s current situation indicator improved for a fourth straight month with a rise to -45.1 points to beat the market estimate of -55.0 and the January mark of -58.6.
Both the outlook and present view of the Eurozone were also better, the ZEW said.
For Germany, “A large fraction of the survey participants expects the economic situation to improve in six months’ time,” ZEW President Achim Wambach said. “However, the current situation is still assessed as relatively unfavourable.
“As in the previous month, the increase in expectations can be traced back to higher profit expectations in the energy- and export-oriented sectors as well as the consumer-related parts of the economy. Expectations for long-term interest rates are also rising, and the banking sector indicator has reached its highest level since 2004.”
The European Central Bank hiked interest rates for the fifth straight time earlier this month and is expected to increase lending costs again in March.
Growth prospects improve
But higher interest rates are only one factor on the minds of market players. Noting that recession in Germany has been “seemingly averted”, local pollster Sentix said earlier this month that the mood among investors about the world’s fourth largest economy headed north for the fourth straight month, and the headline indicator hit its highest mark since March of last year.
Plus, the Dax 40 index of German blue chip stocks is up more than 16% over the past six months, and energy prices have been falling.
Optimists pointed to Tuesday’s purchasing managers’ indices as another indication of improvement in Germany even though the manufacturing measure was worse than expected. Pollster S&P Global said order backlogs in the sector were at their lowest level in 18 months, and new orders were down.
But the composite reading for Europe’s largest economy, which includes the service sector, jumped to 51.1, which put it in growth territory and ahead of the estimate of 50.3.
And even the country’s often gloomy and doomy central bank, the Bundesbank, has spotted a silver lining, noting Monday that the domestic economy is expected to perform “a little better” than policymakers had anticipated at the end of last year.