FRANKFURT –– Managers in Europe’s largest economy are expected to express a smidgen more optimism about their lot as concerns about German growth persist.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Wednesday from the country’s Ifo economics institute is forecast to edge higher to 88.2 points from last month’s reading of 88.1.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to slip to 90.5 points from 90.6, with December’s current assessment reading set to improve to 85.7 versus 85.6 in the previous month.
Purchasing managers in Germany were even more pessimistic than anticipated this month. S&P Global said Tuesday that its preliminary composite reading for December showed an unexpected decline to 51.5 points – a 4-month low – from 52.4 in November. The manufacturing reading slid half a point to 47.7, a 10-month low and even further away from growth territory beyond the 50-point mark. Services dropped a half point to a 3-month low of 52.6.
“Concerns about the health of the economy, the unsettled geopolitical environment, and the competitiveness of German companies weighed on business confidence in December,” S&P Global said. “Business expectations softened for the third month running to their lowest since April.”
While this all seems concerning, the numbers did show some upside, the report said. “The overall drop in expectations was driven exclusively by the service sector and masked an uptick in confidence among manufacturers. Sentiment in the goods-producing sector was in fact at its highest for six months.”
In addition, financial market experts surprised economists on Tuesday by expressing significantly more optimism about Germany’s prospects in the coming six months, with Berlin’s plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn or more on defence and infrastructure driving the upbeat sentiment. Recent media reports said German parliament is on the verge of approving a EUR 52 bn package for defence spending.
More hope or pessimism under the tree this year?
With European Central Bank interest rates likely headed for another hold on Thursday – and possibly all of next year, according to some analysts – German managers are unlikely to receive any relief on borrowing costs in the months ahead.
And after flat growth last quarter, the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, said last month that it expects moderate growth in the final three months of the year.
Furthermore, the outlook for Germany took another hit late in the year: the OECD cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.1% in September. It’s June estimate was 1.2%.
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/*jshint esversion: 6 */
var socket;
var assigned_server = 3001;
var distributor_server = 3010;
var publisher_channel = '';
var broadcaster_channel = '';
var remote_ip = '';
var session_info = {};
var logging_interval;
var logging_interval_time = 120000;
var socket_emits = 0;
var session_start_time;
var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2;
var reconnection_delay = 1000;
var playing = false;
var connected_to_assigned = false;
var socket_close_timeout;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500;
var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
self.onmessage = function (msg) {
switch(msg.data.action) {
case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break;
case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break;
case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break;
case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break;
case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break;
case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break;
case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break;
case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break;
case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break;
}
};
function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() {
clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout);
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null;
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function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() {
player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay );
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function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() {
postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"});
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function reactivate() {
playing = false;
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function player_log_response(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse';
data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final;
data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket;
data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id;
data_array.logs = data.logs;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_message_search(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_message_search';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.search_term = data.search_term;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function request_more_messages(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_more_messages';
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function check_channel_status(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'check_channel_status';
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); }
else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); }
}
function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
}
function join_publisher_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel';
if (typeof data.api_key !== 'undefined') { data_array.api_key = data.api_key; }
else {
data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group;
data_array.display_name = data.display_name;
data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
}
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) {
socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
}
function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
}
function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel;
remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
switch(data.type) {
case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break;
}
};
}
function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
}
function server_assignment_response(data) {
assigned_server = data.selected_server;
socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function request_server_assignment() {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment';
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function connect_to_assigned_server() {
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
connected_to_assigned = true;
if (playing) {
postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
}
};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
var msg_string = event.data.toString();
var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ }
switch(data.type) {
case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
case 'calendar_change':
case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
case 'AppStop':
case 'BroadcasterStarted':
case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
case 'updated_cme_report':
case 'added_cme_commentary':
case 'updated_cme_commentary':
case 'server_assignment_response':
case 'initial_messages':
case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
break;
case 'output':
case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
}
};
socket.onerror = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
};
socket.onclose = function(event) {
console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason);
socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay);
reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor;
connected_to_assigned = false;
};
}
function close_socket() {
clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout);
socket_close_timeout = null;
socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
}
function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
}
function join_player_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_player_channel';
data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
}
function start_log_response(data) {
session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
}
function application_refresh_start(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); }
}
function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
}
function set_static_session_info(data) {
session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename;
session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
}
function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename;
data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name;
data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent;
data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version;
data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled;
data_array.platform = session_info.platform;
data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Headline forecast at 88.2 (prev 88.1)
- PMIs disappoint
- Investor morale rises unexpectedly
- Data due Wednesday at 09:00 GMT / 10:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
FRANKFURT –– Managers in Europe’s largest economy are expected to express a smidgen more optimism about their lot as concerns about German growth persist.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Wednesday from the country’s Ifo economics institute is forecast to edge higher to 88.2 points from last month’s reading of 88.1.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to slip to 90.5 points from 90.6, with December’s current assessment reading set to improve to 85.7 versus 85.6 in the previous month.
Purchasing managers in Germany were even more pessimistic than anticipated this month. S&P Global said Tuesday that its preliminary composite reading for December showed an unexpected decline to 51.5 points – a 4-month low – from 52.4 in November. The manufacturing reading slid half a point to 47.7, a 10-month low and even further away from growth territory beyond the 50-point mark. Services dropped a half point to a 3-month low of 52.6.
“Concerns about the health of the economy, the unsettled geopolitical environment, and the competitiveness of German companies weighed on business confidence in December,” S&P Global said. “Business expectations softened for the third month running to their lowest since April.”
While this all seems concerning, the numbers did show some upside, the report said. “The overall drop in expectations was driven exclusively by the service sector and masked an uptick in confidence among manufacturers. Sentiment in the goods-producing sector was in fact at its highest for six months.”
In addition, financial market experts surprised economists on Tuesday by expressing significantly more optimism about Germany’s prospects in the coming six months, with Berlin’s plans to spend up to EUR 1 tn or more on defence and infrastructure driving the upbeat sentiment. Recent media reports said German parliament is on the verge of approving a EUR 52 bn package for defence spending.
More hope or pessimism under the tree this year?
With European Central Bank interest rates likely headed for another hold on Thursday – and possibly all of next year, according to some analysts – German managers are unlikely to receive any relief on borrowing costs in the months ahead.
And after flat growth last quarter, the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, said last month that it expects moderate growth in the final three months of the year.
Furthermore, the outlook for Germany took another hit late in the year: the OECD cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.1% in September. It’s June estimate was 1.2%.
Sign up for LiveSquawk and receive a discount with the code LSQEC$