FRANKFURT – Hopes that Berlin’s spending plans will improve Germany’s economic situation have spurred a surprise increase in investor confidence in Europe’s largest economy.
The ZEW thinktank said Tuesday that its December expectations indicator for the coming half-year jumped to 45.8 points, the best showing since July. The latest measure beat the forecast of 38.4 and the 38.5 mark set in November.
The ZEW said its current conditions indicator for Germany eased to -81.0 points – its worst since May – versus -78.7 last month and the -80.0 estimate.
The thinktank’s measure for the Eurozone’s outlook climbed to 33.7 points from 25.0, with the current situation showing a slight decline.
The latest results were said to have cast the situation in Germany in a new light. “After three years of economic stagnation, chances for a recovery of the economy are good and this is reflected in the sentiment,” ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said, noting that Berlin’s fiscal policy “will provide new momentum to the German economy.”
Germany plans to invest EUR 1 Tln or more in its military and domestic infrastructure in the coming years.
“However, the recovery remains fragile,” Wambach warned. “Measures for dealing with persistent trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions and the absence of investments are likely to figure on the reform agenda for 2026 as well.”
Source: ZEW
Brighter ZEW outlook counters recent pessimism
The ZEW report followed last week’s decline in the Sentix index of German investor sentiment to -22.7 points – the lowest mark since March – from -20.4 in November.
Purchasing managers in Germany were also less optimistic this month. S&P Global said Tuesday that its preliminary composite reading for December showed an unexpected decline to 51.5 points – a 4-month low – from 52.4 in November. The manufacturing reading slid half a point to 47.7, a 10-month low and even further away from growth territory beyond the 50-point mark. Services dropped a half point to a 3-month low of 52.6.
The likely end of reductions in borrowing costs is undoubtedly damping optimism: the European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged once again at the end of October. Officials are expected to hold rates at current levels on Thursday, with many analysts saying the cycle of cuts is probably over.
On the other hand, blue chip stocks in Germany have been on an uptrend, with the country’s Dax 40 stock index rising around 2.3% from this time in November and more than 20% since the beginning of the year.
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- Recovery chances “good” – ZEW chief
- Eurozone optimism better than expected
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
The ZEW thinktank said Tuesday that its December expectations indicator for the coming half-year jumped to 45.8 points, the best showing since July. The latest measure beat the forecast of 38.4 and the 38.5 mark set in November.
The ZEW said its current conditions indicator for Germany eased to -81.0 points – its worst since May – versus -78.7 last month and the -80.0 estimate.
The thinktank’s measure for the Eurozone’s outlook climbed to 33.7 points from 25.0, with the current situation showing a slight decline.
The latest results were said to have cast the situation in Germany in a new light. “After three years of economic stagnation, chances for a recovery of the economy are good and this is reflected in the sentiment,” ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach said, noting that Berlin’s fiscal policy “will provide new momentum to the German economy.”
Germany plans to invest EUR 1 Tln or more in its military and domestic infrastructure in the coming years.
“However, the recovery remains fragile,” Wambach warned. “Measures for dealing with persistent trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions and the absence of investments are likely to figure on the reform agenda for 2026 as well.”
Brighter ZEW outlook counters recent pessimism
The ZEW report followed last week’s decline in the Sentix index of German investor sentiment to -22.7 points – the lowest mark since March – from -20.4 in November.
Purchasing managers in Germany were also less optimistic this month. S&P Global said Tuesday that its preliminary composite reading for December showed an unexpected decline to 51.5 points – a 4-month low – from 52.4 in November. The manufacturing reading slid half a point to 47.7, a 10-month low and even further away from growth territory beyond the 50-point mark. Services dropped a half point to a 3-month low of 52.6.
The likely end of reductions in borrowing costs is undoubtedly damping optimism: the European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged once again at the end of October. Officials are expected to hold rates at current levels on Thursday, with many analysts saying the cycle of cuts is probably over.
On the other hand, blue chip stocks in Germany have been on an uptrend, with the country’s Dax 40 stock index rising around 2.3% from this time in November and more than 20% since the beginning of the year.
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