FRANKFURT –– The morale among business leaders in Europe’s largest economy has improved for a second straight month as officials from Washington and Tehran discuss the end of the war in Switzerland.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Wednesday that its June survey of domestic companies produced an increase in its headline business climate index to 85.6 points versus the market estimate of 85.5 and an upwardly revised 85.0 reading last month. This continued the rebound from the April result, the lowest in nearly six years.
“Firms perceive the business environment as less uncertain,” the thinktank noted. “German companies are hoping for geopolitical tensions to ease.”
EUR/USD continued to trade below 1.14 following the report. Brent crude futures fell to pre-war levels.
Ifo reported that its June expectations component for the coming six months improved to 84.1 points, which was below the 84.8 market forecast but above May’s upwardly revised reading of 83.9.
The current conditions measure climbed to 87.0 points, outpacing both the 86.3 estimate and last month’s 86.1.
The institute reported higher business climate indices across all areas it covers, namely manufacturing, services, trade, and construction.
Source: Ifo
Not out of the woods just yet
“Interestingly, not only expectations but also the current assessment component improved in June,” noted ING’s Carsten Brzeski. “However, before getting overly enthusiastic, even with today’s increase the Ifo index still remains below its pre-war level.
“While some football pundits might credit the German national team’s World Cup performance for this shift in general sentiment, the talks between Iran and the US on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are probably the real driver behind the renewed optimism.”
Die Mannschaft has already qualified for the knockout stage of the tournament, having secured the top spot in their group with two victories.
Germany’s ZEW investor outlook improved more than expected this month, another sign of better prospects for Europe’s largest economy.
This month’s rise in business confidence also followed a rate hike by the European Central Bank nearly a fortnight ago, with officials there warning that war-driven price increases were a concern.
But Ifo economists last week again cut their growth expectations for Germany. The updated economic growth forecasts slashed Ifo’s 2027 prediction for German GDP expansion to 0.8% from the 1.2% projection in March, the same month it reduced its growth outlook for this year to 0.8% from a pre-war estimate of 1.0%.
Purchasing managers also offered pessimism on Tuesday. The initial June composite PMI measure from S&P Global sank to an 18-month low of 48.0 points and further into contraction territory under the 50 mark. Services dropped to 46.8, their worst in nearly four years. Manufacturing slipped a tenth to 50.0, a five-month low.
However, the pollster noted that most of the responses for the June flash PMI report were received prior to last week’s signing by the US and Iran of a memorandum of understanding to begin peace talks.
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- Mood better than expected
- Growth path unclear
- Brent futures ease
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
24 June 2026 | 09:45 GMT
FRANKFURT –– The morale among business leaders in Europe’s largest economy has improved for a second straight month as officials from Washington and Tehran discuss the end of the war in Switzerland.
Germany’s Ifo economics institute said Wednesday that its June survey of domestic companies produced an increase in its headline business climate index to 85.6 points versus the market estimate of 85.5 and an upwardly revised 85.0 reading last month. This continued the rebound from the April result, the lowest in nearly six years.
“Firms perceive the business environment as less uncertain,” the thinktank noted. “German companies are hoping for geopolitical tensions to ease.”
EUR/USD continued to trade below 1.14 following the report. Brent crude futures fell to pre-war levels.
Ifo reported that its June expectations component for the coming six months improved to 84.1 points, which was below the 84.8 market forecast but above May’s upwardly revised reading of 83.9.
The current conditions measure climbed to 87.0 points, outpacing both the 86.3 estimate and last month’s 86.1.
The institute reported higher business climate indices across all areas it covers, namely manufacturing, services, trade, and construction.
Not out of the woods just yet
“Interestingly, not only expectations but also the current assessment component improved in June,” noted ING’s Carsten Brzeski. “However, before getting overly enthusiastic, even with today’s increase the Ifo index still remains below its pre-war level.
“While some football pundits might credit the German national team’s World Cup performance for this shift in general sentiment, the talks between Iran and the US on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are probably the real driver behind the renewed optimism.”
Die Mannschaft has already qualified for the knockout stage of the tournament, having secured the top spot in their group with two victories.
Germany’s ZEW investor outlook improved more than expected this month, another sign of better prospects for Europe’s largest economy.
This month’s rise in business confidence also followed a rate hike by the European Central Bank nearly a fortnight ago, with officials there warning that war-driven price increases were a concern.
But Ifo economists last week again cut their growth expectations for Germany. The updated economic growth forecasts slashed Ifo’s 2027 prediction for German GDP expansion to 0.8% from the 1.2% projection in March, the same month it reduced its growth outlook for this year to 0.8% from a pre-war estimate of 1.0%.
Purchasing managers also offered pessimism on Tuesday. The initial June composite PMI measure from S&P Global sank to an 18-month low of 48.0 points and further into contraction territory under the 50 mark. Services dropped to 46.8, their worst in nearly four years. Manufacturing slipped a tenth to 50.0, a five-month low.
However, the pollster noted that most of the responses for the June flash PMI report were received prior to last week’s signing by the US and Iran of a memorandum of understanding to begin peace talks.
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