FRANKFURT – The possible conclusion of hostilities between the US and Iran has buoyed opinions among investors about Germany’s prospects, the first such improvement since the war began in late February.
Representatives from the US and Iran are expected to sign a peace accord on Friday in Geneva, but details of the agreement have not been released.
Germany’s ZEW thinktank said Tuesday that its expectations indicator for the coming half-year surged to 10.5 points to outpace the market estimate of -5.5 and May’s -10.2 reading. The measure hit 59.6 in January, its best since July 2021, before falling to -17.2 in April, its lowest point in more than three years, according to ZEW data.
The DAX 40 index of German blue-chip stocks was up around 0.7% on the day in Frankfurt Tuesday morning, and some 2.3% higher than a week ago.
The ZEW’s current conditions indicator for Germany was worse than expected, declining to -81.0 points compared to the estimate of -78.0 and -77.8 last month.
The thinktank’s measure for the Eurozone’s outlook for the next six months jumped to 9.5 points from -9.1 in May.
“Financial market experts expect the Iran conflict to be nearing an end,” said ZEW President Achim Wambach. “This is likely to ease the massive pressure on energy prices and inflation, which would benefit energy -intensive industries and private households and would strengthen domestic demand.”
The ZEW said expectations rose for the car, chemical, pharmaceutical, and mechanical engineering sectors. The outlook for private demand also brightened, the thinktank noted.
Another poll also signals more optimism
Last week, June’s headline investor confidence reading from the monthly Sentix survey on Germany improved thanks to higher expectations, but the current conditions measure fell for the third straight month to hit its lowest point since February of last year.
“Whilst the global economy is increasingly shaking off the pressures of recent months, the German economy is lagging behind this trend,” Sentix wrote. Noting the fall in the current conditions reading, the pollster said: “The German economy thus remains the problem child among the major economic regions and has so far been able to benefit only to a limited extent from the international upturn.”
Oxford Economics said the latest data suggests the economy may have pushed past the impact of the war: “The ZEW index rebounded in June, corroborating bottoming-out signals from other surveys and lending support to the view that the bulk of the economic fallout from the Iran conflict should be concentrated in Q2. However, the rebound was driven solely by improved expectations, while the assessment of current economic conditions remained deeply negative.”
The geopolitical situation may be improving, but Germany – and the rest of the Eurozone – now face higher borrowing costs: The European Central Bank last week raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in a move that was widely expected.
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- Measure for the present declines unexpectedly
- Optimism rises for multiple sectors
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
16 June 2026 | 09:55 GMT
FRANKFURT – The possible conclusion of hostilities between the US and Iran has buoyed opinions among investors about Germany’s prospects, the first such improvement since the war began in late February.
Representatives from the US and Iran are expected to sign a peace accord on Friday in Geneva, but details of the agreement have not been released.
Germany’s ZEW thinktank said Tuesday that its expectations indicator for the coming half-year surged to 10.5 points to outpace the market estimate of -5.5 and May’s -10.2 reading. The measure hit 59.6 in January, its best since July 2021, before falling to -17.2 in April, its lowest point in more than three years, according to ZEW data.
The DAX 40 index of German blue-chip stocks was up around 0.7% on the day in Frankfurt Tuesday morning, and some 2.3% higher than a week ago.
The ZEW’s current conditions indicator for Germany was worse than expected, declining to -81.0 points compared to the estimate of -78.0 and -77.8 last month.
The thinktank’s measure for the Eurozone’s outlook for the next six months jumped to 9.5 points from -9.1 in May.
“Financial market experts expect the Iran conflict to be nearing an end,” said ZEW President Achim Wambach. “This is likely to ease the massive pressure on energy prices and inflation, which would benefit energy -intensive industries and private households and would strengthen domestic demand.”
The ZEW said expectations rose for the car, chemical, pharmaceutical, and mechanical engineering sectors. The outlook for private demand also brightened, the thinktank noted.
Another poll also signals more optimism
Last week, June’s headline investor confidence reading from the monthly Sentix survey on Germany improved thanks to higher expectations, but the current conditions measure fell for the third straight month to hit its lowest point since February of last year.
“Whilst the global economy is increasingly shaking off the pressures of recent months, the German economy is lagging behind this trend,” Sentix wrote. Noting the fall in the current conditions reading, the pollster said: “The German economy thus remains the problem child among the major economic regions and has so far been able to benefit only to a limited extent from the international upturn.”
Oxford Economics said the latest data suggests the economy may have pushed past the impact of the war: “The ZEW index rebounded in June, corroborating bottoming-out signals from other surveys and lending support to the view that the bulk of the economic fallout from the Iran conflict should be concentrated in Q2. However, the rebound was driven solely by improved expectations, while the assessment of current economic conditions remained deeply negative.”
The geopolitical situation may be improving, but Germany – and the rest of the Eurozone – now face higher borrowing costs: The European Central Bank last week raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in a move that was widely expected.
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