FRANKFURT –– Managers in Germany are expected to express more optimism about the overall business environment as Washington and Tehran continue to discuss an end to the war in the Middle East.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Wednesday from the country’s Ifo economics institute was forecast to climb to 85.6 points from May’s reading of 84.9, a slight improvement on April’s result, which was the lowest in nearly six years.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to rise to 85.0 points from 83.8, and June’s current assessment reading is set to tick higher to 86.4 from 86.1 in the previous month.
Deutsche Bank said the latest Ifo poll results are “likely to show a noticeable improvement, particularly in business expectations.”
Blue skies ahead?
Germany’s ZEW investor outlook improved more than expected this month, another sign of better prospects for Europe’s largest economy.
Purchasing managers offered pessimism on Tuesday, according to initial June data from S&P Global. The composite PMI sank to an 18-month low of 48.0 points and further into contraction territory under the 50 mark. Services were the drag, dropping to 46.8, their worst in nearly four years. Manufacturing failed to help, slipping a tenth to 50.0, a five-month low.
However, there was a caveat, the pollster noted: “Most of the responses used in the calculation of the June flash PMI data were received prior to the signing of the memorandum of understanding for a cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran” signed last week.
US and Iranian officials have been meeting in Switzerland to end the conflict, with their memorandum calling for 60 days of negotiations. The US said Monday that it has eliminated some of the sanctions on Iranian oil due to good progress in the talks.
Brent dipped below USD 77/bbl in early European trading on Tuesday.
Growing, but slower
But the war and its resulting high prices for energy will continue to cost the German economy, according to Ifo, which released updated economic growth forecasts last week. The thinktank slashed its 2027 prediction for Germany to 0.8% from the 1.2% projection in March. Back then, Ifo reduced its growth outlook for this year to 0.8% – should there be a de-escalation of the war – from a pre-war estimate of 1.0%.
The latest forecast “is based on the assumption that the conflict will deescalate in the coming weeks, and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen,” Ifo explained. “Energy prices are then expected to fall gradually but remain above pre-war levels through the end of the forecast period.
“Overall, it is assumed that the energy price shock will dampen growth by 0.4 percentage points both this year and the next.”
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- Headline forecast at 85.6 (prev 84.9)
- View of present, future expected to improve
- Manufacturing PMI slips, overall reading ticks higher
- Investor outlook improves
- Ifo downgrades German growth again
- Data due Wednesday at 08:00 GMT / 10:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS
23 June 2026 | 08:30 GMT
FRANKFURT –– Managers in Germany are expected to express more optimism about the overall business environment as Washington and Tehran continue to discuss an end to the war in the Middle East.
An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Wednesday from the country’s Ifo economics institute was forecast to climb to 85.6 points from May’s reading of 84.9, a slight improvement on April’s result, which was the lowest in nearly six years.
The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to rise to 85.0 points from 83.8, and June’s current assessment reading is set to tick higher to 86.4 from 86.1 in the previous month.
Deutsche Bank said the latest Ifo poll results are “likely to show a noticeable improvement, particularly in business expectations.”
Blue skies ahead?
Germany’s ZEW investor outlook improved more than expected this month, another sign of better prospects for Europe’s largest economy.
Purchasing managers offered pessimism on Tuesday, according to initial June data from S&P Global. The composite PMI sank to an 18-month low of 48.0 points and further into contraction territory under the 50 mark. Services were the drag, dropping to 46.8, their worst in nearly four years. Manufacturing failed to help, slipping a tenth to 50.0, a five-month low.
However, there was a caveat, the pollster noted: “Most of the responses used in the calculation of the June flash PMI data were received prior to the signing of the memorandum of understanding for a cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran” signed last week.
US and Iranian officials have been meeting in Switzerland to end the conflict, with their memorandum calling for 60 days of negotiations. The US said Monday that it has eliminated some of the sanctions on Iranian oil due to good progress in the talks.
Brent dipped below USD 77/bbl in early European trading on Tuesday.
Growing, but slower
But the war and its resulting high prices for energy will continue to cost the German economy, according to Ifo, which released updated economic growth forecasts last week. The thinktank slashed its 2027 prediction for Germany to 0.8% from the 1.2% projection in March. Back then, Ifo reduced its growth outlook for this year to 0.8% – should there be a de-escalation of the war – from a pre-war estimate of 1.0%.
The latest forecast “is based on the assumption that the conflict will deescalate in the coming weeks, and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen,” Ifo explained. “Energy prices are then expected to fall gradually but remain above pre-war levels through the end of the forecast period.
“Overall, it is assumed that the energy price shock will dampen growth by 0.4 percentage points both this year and the next.”
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