FRANKFURT – The apparent winding down of the Iran war is set to improve investor confidence in Europe’s largest economy, according to analysts.
An analysts’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from a survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute is expected to climb to -6.0 points from the -10.2 in May, itself an improvement over April’s result, which was a three-year low.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to edge higher to -77.0 points from -77.8, which would keep it in negative territory, its home since December 2021.
Expectations for this month’s improvement come amid reports that Washington and Tehran have agreed on a peace deal. While such speculation has been rampant for weeks – some would say for months – the latest indications on Monday were that an agreement could be signed this week. Most ZEW poll respondents generally return their questionnaires a few days before the announcement of the results, but recent signs that the war could be ending may boost the measures more than projected.
The Dax 40 index of German blue chip stocks was up nearly 1.8% in Frankfurt on Monday morning. It has gained more than 2.1% this year.
Economic situation: Steady as she goes?
“The ZEW index should confirm the signs of stabilisation shown by other sentiment data, such as the Sentix or the PMIs,” Oxford Economics said in a note. Germany’s composite PMI improved to 48.8 points from 48.4 in May, according to S&P Global.
Last week, June’s Sentix headline investor confidence reading improved thanks to higher expectations, but the current conditions measure fell for the third straight month to hit its lowest point since February of last year.
“Whilst the global economy is increasingly shaking off the pressures of recent months, the German economy is lagging behind this trend,” Sentix wrote. Noting the fall in the current conditions reading, the pollster said: “The German economy thus remains the problem child among the major economic regions and has so far been able to benefit only to a limited extent from the international upturn.”
The geopolitical situation may be cooling, but Germany – and the rest of the Eurozone – now face higher borrowing costs: The European Central Bank last week raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in a move that was widely expected. Higher costs for businesses may mute some of the optimism among investors.
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var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
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- Outlook forecast at -6.0 points (prev -10.2)
- Current conditions seen at -77.0 (prev -77.8)
- Sentix investor morale index records gains
- Data due Tuesday at 09:00 GMT / 11:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@eculp.bsky.social
@EricCulpLS https://twitter.com/EricCulpLS
15 June 2026 | 08:00 GMT
FRANKFURT – The apparent winding down of the Iran war is set to improve investor confidence in Europe’s largest economy, according to analysts.
An analysts’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from a survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute is expected to climb to -6.0 points from the -10.2 in May, itself an improvement over April’s result, which was a three-year low.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is expected to edge higher to -77.0 points from -77.8, which would keep it in negative territory, its home since December 2021.
Expectations for this month’s improvement come amid reports that Washington and Tehran have agreed on a peace deal. While such speculation has been rampant for weeks – some would say for months – the latest indications on Monday were that an agreement could be signed this week. Most ZEW poll respondents generally return their questionnaires a few days before the announcement of the results, but recent signs that the war could be ending may boost the measures more than projected.
The Dax 40 index of German blue chip stocks was up nearly 1.8% in Frankfurt on Monday morning. It has gained more than 2.1% this year.
Economic situation: Steady as she goes?
“The ZEW index should confirm the signs of stabilisation shown by other sentiment data, such as the Sentix or the PMIs,” Oxford Economics said in a note. Germany’s composite PMI improved to 48.8 points from 48.4 in May, according to S&P Global.
Last week, June’s Sentix headline investor confidence reading improved thanks to higher expectations, but the current conditions measure fell for the third straight month to hit its lowest point since February of last year.
“Whilst the global economy is increasingly shaking off the pressures of recent months, the German economy is lagging behind this trend,” Sentix wrote. Noting the fall in the current conditions reading, the pollster said: “The German economy thus remains the problem child among the major economic regions and has so far been able to benefit only to a limited extent from the international upturn.”
The geopolitical situation may be cooling, but Germany – and the rest of the Eurozone – now face higher borrowing costs: The European Central Bank last week raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in a move that was widely expected. Higher costs for businesses may mute some of the optimism among investors.
Sign up for LiveSquawk and receive a discount with the code LSQEC$