Eurozone Q3 GDP Growth Set To Match Q2 Rate Despite Expected German Weakness
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console.warn("[Page worker] JWT join skipped: socket not open");
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socket.send(JSON.stringify({
type: "join_publisher_channel",
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publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel,
username: data.username,
subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group,
display_name: data.display_name,
single_sign_on: data.single_sign_on,
remote_ip: data.remote_ip,
http_referrer: data.http_referrer,
current_page: data.current_page,
php_session_id: data.php_session_id,
from_react: data.from_react,
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postMessage({ action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
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username: data.username,
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from_react: data.from_react,
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joinSocket.send(JSON.stringify(payload));
postMessage({ action: "PublisherChannelJoined" });
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function session_static_info(msg) {
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postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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socket.close(1000);
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postMessage(data);
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var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
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session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
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- Quarterly rate forecast at 0.2% (prev 0.2%)
- One-off Olympic boost anticipated
- Data likely to show Germany was in recession
- Growth concerns remain
- Data due Wednesday at 10:00 GMT / 11 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
29 October 2024 | 09:40 GMT
Euro area economic growth in the third quarter is expected to have held at the level of the previous three months, with data from individual countries painting a disparate picture of business activity in the region.
An economists’ poll predicts the EU will announce a quarterly Eurozone GDP expansion rate of 0.2% for the last quarter to match the mark reported for the second three months of the year. The annual growth rate for Q2 is expected to increase to 0.9% from 0.6% in the previous period.
Once again, Germany remains the Eurozone’s problem child, according to estimates. Economists are expecting a second straight report of economic contraction, which translates to the currency area’s biggest economy being in recession in the second and third quarters.
Multi-track Europe
“We estimate GDP growth for the eurozone was around 0.3% q/q in Q3 2024, benefitting from the one-off boost from the Paris Olympics,” Oxford Economics said in a note. “We expect France to report an increase of around 0.5%, while Spain should be confirmed as one of the outperformers for the Eurozone. Germany and Italy are expected to be more subdued, with Germany posting negative quarterly growth and Italy only a marginal one.”
Economists projected a second consecutive 0.1% q/q contraction for the German economy in Q3 and only 0.2% growth from Italy, which would match the Q2 mark.
The survey of analysts predicted 0.4% growth for France and 0.6% for Spain.
Still looking for bottom
Concerns about economic weakness in Europe have become louder in European capitals and on the streets. On Monday, union leaders in Germany announced that industrial powerhouse Volkswagen is planning to end production at at least three factories in the country. These would be the first domestic closures in the carmaker’s 87-year history. VW said it would announce its restructuring plans on Wednesday.
The news followed an increasing number of headlines about bankruptcies and shutdowns at German car components makers.
Economic problems in Germany and the rest of Europe have supported back-to-back rate cuts from the European Central Bank, which lowered borrowing costs last month and less than a fortnight ago. Observers said the bank will likely reduce rates again in December on expectations of sputtering economies in multiple member states and Eurozone inflation close to or in-line with the ECB target of 2% over the medium term.
The initial report on October Eurozone inflation is due Thursday, with economists expecting the annual headline rate to rise to 1.9% from 1.7% in September.
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