The Eurozone economy grew unexpectedly in the final quarter of 2022, which will likely embolden monetary policymakers demanding further interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The EU statistics office Eurostat said euro area GDP last quarter grew 0.1% from the previous three months. Analysts had expected a 0% reading following quarterly growth of 0.3% in the July-September period.
The office said the economy expanded 1.9% versus Q4 2021, a growth rate that exceeded the estimate of 1.7% but fell short of the 2.3% mark set in the previous quarter.
Eurostat noted that according to its first estimate for seasonally and calendar-adjusted data, the Eurozone economy grew 3.5% last year.
The announcements came concurrently with growth data from Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy, where GDP fell 0.1% on the quarter. This beat the estimate of a 0.2% decline but was well below the 0.5% reading from Q3.
France, the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, said earlier Tuesday that its Q4 GDP increased 0.1% on the quarter to beat the expectation for zero growth after a whopping 1% climb in the three months through September.
Germany – Europe’s biggest economy – said Monday that business activity last quarter eased 0.2% from Q3 to miss the estimate for 0.2% growth and the surprisingly strong 0.4% performance in the previous three months. The German announcement came as a bit of a shock: in mid-January, the country’s statistics office Destatis said Europe’s largest economy “stagnated” last quarter.
On Friday, the EU’s fourth-largest economy Spain said its GDP grew 0.2% last quarter, which matched Q3 growth and the market estimate.
Surprise growth still not enough for some, suits others
“The small increase in Eurozone GDP in Q4 was better than we feared a few months ago, but the economy excluding Ireland still flat-lined,” wrote Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. “As the data deteriorated towards the end of the quarter and tighter monetary policy is still feeding through to households and firms, we think a Eurozone recession is probable this year.”
The latest growth, however meagre, looks likely to embolden monetary hawks at the European Central Bank, where the governing council is to begin its two-day rate decision meeting on Wednesday.
Carsten Brzeski, ING’s head of macroeconomics, tweeted: “Eurozone economy avoids recession for now, with 0.1% QoQ GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Better than the ECB’s own forecast of -0.2%. License to hike extended. #ECB”
Analysts expect the bank to hike rates a half point on Thursday and announce a readiness to raise borrowing costs again six weeks later as inflation remains at a high level.
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- Small increase comes after contractions in major economies
- Rise in GDP offers more fodder for monetary policy hawks
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
31 January 2023 | 11:05 GMT
The Eurozone economy grew unexpectedly in the final quarter of 2022, which will likely embolden monetary policymakers demanding further interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The EU statistics office Eurostat said euro area GDP last quarter grew 0.1% from the previous three months. Analysts had expected a 0% reading following quarterly growth of 0.3% in the July-September period.
The office said the economy expanded 1.9% versus Q4 2021, a growth rate that exceeded the estimate of 1.7% but fell short of the 2.3% mark set in the previous quarter.
Eurostat noted that according to its first estimate for seasonally and calendar-adjusted data, the Eurozone economy grew 3.5% last year.
The announcements came concurrently with growth data from Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy, where GDP fell 0.1% on the quarter. This beat the estimate of a 0.2% decline but was well below the 0.5% reading from Q3.
France, the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, said earlier Tuesday that its Q4 GDP increased 0.1% on the quarter to beat the expectation for zero growth after a whopping 1% climb in the three months through September.
Germany – Europe’s biggest economy – said Monday that business activity last quarter eased 0.2% from Q3 to miss the estimate for 0.2% growth and the surprisingly strong 0.4% performance in the previous three months. The German announcement came as a bit of a shock: in mid-January, the country’s statistics office Destatis said Europe’s largest economy “stagnated” last quarter.
On Friday, the EU’s fourth-largest economy Spain said its GDP grew 0.2% last quarter, which matched Q3 growth and the market estimate.
Surprise growth still not enough for some, suits others
“The small increase in Eurozone GDP in Q4 was better than we feared a few months ago, but the economy excluding Ireland still flat-lined,” wrote Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. “As the data deteriorated towards the end of the quarter and tighter monetary policy is still feeding through to households and firms, we think a Eurozone recession is probable this year.”
The latest growth, however meagre, looks likely to embolden monetary hawks at the European Central Bank, where the governing council is to begin its two-day rate decision meeting on Wednesday.
Carsten Brzeski, ING’s head of macroeconomics, tweeted: “Eurozone economy avoids recession for now, with 0.1% QoQ GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Better than the ECB’s own forecast of -0.2%. License to hike extended. #ECB”
Analysts expect the bank to hike rates a half point on Thursday and announce a readiness to raise borrowing costs again six weeks later as inflation remains at a high level.