Headline annual inflation in the Eurozone is expected to fall for the third straight month in January, but preliminary data from France and Spain showed a rise in consumer prices, which could help lift the overall value for the currency area.
On Tuesday, an economists’ poll predicted a decline in annual inflation to 9.0% from the 9.2% reading in December. The core rate was expected to ease to 5.1% from the record 5.2% set last month.
But France, the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, said Tuesday morning in a preliminary report that its EU-harmonised inflation rate rose to 7.0%, which surpassed the market estimate of 6.9% and last month’s reading of 6.7%.
Spain, the euro area’s fourth-largest economy, said Monday that its EU-harmonised inflation rose to 5.8% to exceed December’s 5.5%.
According to Nomura, “This was a material surprise to the upside, in comparison with our and consensus expectations of a decline to below 5%.”
It noted that the unexpected increase "points to material upside risks to our euro area inflation forecasts for Wednesday, for both headline, and more importantly for the ECB, core inflation.”
Last week, Nomura said it expected headline inflation to fall to 8.4% from last month’s 9.2%
No data from Germany
On top of rising consumer prices in these major economies, January inflation data for Germany – the biggest economy in the Eurozone – is unavailable due to technical problems with data preparation, the German statistics office Destatis said in a statement. The office is currently changing the base year for the data.
A Destatis spokesman told LiveSquawk News that the office will deliver no German consumer price information to the EU statistics office Eurostat ahead of Wednesday’s release, so analysts there will estimate this month’s inflation numbers for Germany.
Data on inflation in Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy, is due concurrently with Wednesday’s Eurozone data and is expected to decline to 11.0% from 12.3% last month.
Any rise in inflation is bound to confound policymakers at the European Central Bank ahead of Thursday's rate decision. They have already increased borrowing costs at every opportunity since July, and the market expects a 50-basis point hike this week.
ECB hawks received a bit of support on Tuesday when the EU reported fourth-quarter Eurozone growth of 0.1% versus the previous three-month period, which beat analysts' expectations for a 0.1% decline.
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- Annual headline rate expected to fall to 9.0% (prev 9.2%)
- Core reading projected to decline to 5.1% from 5.2%
- French, Spanish consumer prices climb
- German January inflation numbers unavailable
- Data due Wednesday at 10:00 GMT/11:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
31 January 2023 | 10:00 GMT
Headline annual inflation in the Eurozone is expected to fall for the third straight month in January, but preliminary data from France and Spain showed a rise in consumer prices, which could help lift the overall value for the currency area.
On Tuesday, an economists’ poll predicted a decline in annual inflation to 9.0% from the 9.2% reading in December. The core rate was expected to ease to 5.1% from the record 5.2% set last month.
But France, the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, said Tuesday morning in a preliminary report that its EU-harmonised inflation rate rose to 7.0%, which surpassed the market estimate of 6.9% and last month’s reading of 6.7%.
Spain, the euro area’s fourth-largest economy, said Monday that its EU-harmonised inflation rose to 5.8% to exceed December’s 5.5%.
According to Nomura, “This was a material surprise to the upside, in comparison with our and consensus expectations of a decline to below 5%.”
It noted that the unexpected increase "points to material upside risks to our euro area inflation forecasts for Wednesday, for both headline, and more importantly for the ECB, core inflation.”
Last week, Nomura said it expected headline inflation to fall to 8.4% from last month’s 9.2%
No data from Germany
On top of rising consumer prices in these major economies, January inflation data for Germany – the biggest economy in the Eurozone – is unavailable due to technical problems with data preparation, the German statistics office Destatis said in a statement. The office is currently changing the base year for the data.
A Destatis spokesman told LiveSquawk News that the office will deliver no German consumer price information to the EU statistics office Eurostat ahead of Wednesday’s release, so analysts there will estimate this month’s inflation numbers for Germany.
Data on inflation in Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy, is due concurrently with Wednesday’s Eurozone data and is expected to decline to 11.0% from 12.3% last month.
Any rise in inflation is bound to confound policymakers at the European Central Bank ahead of Thursday's rate decision. They have already increased borrowing costs at every opportunity since July, and the market expects a 50-basis point hike this week.
ECB hawks received a bit of support on Tuesday when the EU reported fourth-quarter Eurozone growth of 0.1% versus the previous three-month period, which beat analysts' expectations for a 0.1% decline.