Consumer price growth in the euro area is expected to accelerate for a second straight month in November, an increase that might be enough to dissuade the European Central Bank from a “jumbo” rate cut of 50 basis points, according to analysts.
An economists’ poll predicted that the Eurozone headline inflation rate increased to 2.3% this month from 2.0% in October, which would push it back above the ECB’s target of 2% over the medium term.
The less-volatile core rate is set to move in the opposite direction of what is usually expected for loosening monetary policy. The indicator, which excludes values for energy and other items, is forecast to rise to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% last month.
Nomura noted that it anticipates an even larger increase in annual inflation, predicting a headline of 2.4%.
“The ECB’s December meeting is just over two weeks away, and the debate on a 25bp rate cut versus a 50bp rate cut continues in earnest,” it said in a note. “This is largely because the euro area PMIs have surprised markedly to the downside. However, not all the data suggest a 50bp rate cut is warranted.” It pointed to a sharp jump in Q3 wage growth of 5.5%, last month’s rise in euro area price growth, and this month’s expected increase as obstacles to a jumbo cut from the self-described “data-dependent” ECB.
Swap market bets put the likelihood of a 25bp cut next month at 90%, with the chance of a 50bp reduction now at nearly 60%.
Forecasts for member states point to price growth
Projections for EU-harmonised annual headline inflation rates in the Eurozone’s four largest economies imply a rise in the overall number for the currency area. The initial reading from Spain, due Thursday morning (08:00 GMT), is expected to jump to 2.4% from 1.8% last month.
Germany’s preliminary November inflation announcement – set for Thursday afternoon (13:00 GMT) – was forecast to rise to 2.6% from 2.4% last month.
France is scheduled to present initial November inflation data on Friday morning (08:45 GMT), with economists predicting an uptick to 1.7% from 1.6% last month. Later in the day, Italy is set to reveal preliminary consumer price data concurrently with the Eurozone numbers, and analysts forecast a surge to 1.5% from 1.0% last month.
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var assigned_server = 3001;
var distributor_server = 3010;
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var broadcaster_channel = '';
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var session_start_time;
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case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break;
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case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break;
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case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break;
case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break;
case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break;
case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break;
}
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data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket;
data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id;
data_array.logs = data.logs;
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function request_message_search(data) {
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data_array.search_term = data.search_term;
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function request_more_messages(data) {
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data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id;
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if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
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function check_channel_status(data) {
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data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
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function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
}
function join_publisher_channel(data) {
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data_array.type = 'join_publisher_channel';
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data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.subscriber_group = data.subscriber_group;
data_array.display_name = data.display_name;
data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
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var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) {
socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
}
function session_static_info(msg) {
set_static_session_info(msg.data);
start_log();
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function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel;
remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip;
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
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var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
switch(data.type) {
case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break;
}
};
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function session_info_interval() {
postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' });
logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time);
}
function server_assignment_response(data) {
assigned_server = data.selected_server;
socket.close();
connect_to_assigned_server();
}
function request_server_assignment() {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment';
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
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function connect_to_assigned_server() {
socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server);
socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
connected_to_assigned = true;
if (playing) {
postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
}
};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {
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var data = JSON.parse(msg_string);
if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ }
switch(data.type) {
case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break;
case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
case 'new_tweet':
case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
case 'add_report':
case 'add_ref_doc':
case 'calendar_change':
case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
case 'AppStart':
case 'AppStop':
case 'BroadcasterStarted':
case 'BroadcasterStopped':
case 'added_cme_report':
case 'updated_cme_report':
case 'added_cme_commentary':
case 'updated_cme_commentary':
case 'server_assignment_response':
case 'initial_messages':
case 'message_categories':
case 'more_messages':
case 'matched_messages':
pass_straight_to_post_message(data);
break;
case 'output':
case 'server_ping':
case 'reconnect':
case 'disconnect':
break;
}
};
socket.onerror = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type });
console.log(event);
postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
};
socket.onclose = function(event) {
console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason);
socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay);
reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor;
connected_to_assigned = false;
};
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function close_socket() {
clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout);
socket_close_timeout = null;
socket.onclose = function(event) {};
socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
}
function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
}
function join_player_channel(data) {
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'join_player_channel';
data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel;
data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
data_array.username = data.username;
data_array.app_name = data.app_name;
data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status;
data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' });
playing = true;
}
function start_log_response(data) {
session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id;
session_info_interval();
}
function application_refresh_start(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); }
}
function application_refresh_stop(data) {
if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); }
}
function set_static_session_info(data) {
session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename;
session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
}
function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full';
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename;
data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name;
data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent;
data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version;
data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled;
data_array.platform = session_info.platform;
data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.delay_target = 0;
data_array.op_sys = '';
data_array.flash_version = '';
data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip;
data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
else {
data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array);
if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); }
}
socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
- Annual headline inflation expected at 2.3% (prev 2.0%)
- Annual core rate forecast at 2.8% (prev 2.7%)
- Economic worries continue to mount
- Third straight ECB rate cut still likely next month
- Data due Friday at 10:00 GMT / 11:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
27 November 2024 | 22:45 GMT
Consumer price growth in the euro area is expected to accelerate for a second straight month in November, an increase that might be enough to dissuade the European Central Bank from a “jumbo” rate cut of 50 basis points, according to analysts.
An economists’ poll predicted that the Eurozone headline inflation rate increased to 2.3% this month from 2.0% in October, which would push it back above the ECB’s target of 2% over the medium term.
The less-volatile core rate is set to move in the opposite direction of what is usually expected for loosening monetary policy. The indicator, which excludes values for energy and other items, is forecast to rise to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% last month.
Nomura noted that it anticipates an even larger increase in annual inflation, predicting a headline of 2.4%.
“The ECB’s December meeting is just over two weeks away, and the debate on a 25bp rate cut versus a 50bp rate cut continues in earnest,” it said in a note. “This is largely because the euro area PMIs have surprised markedly to the downside. However, not all the data suggest a 50bp rate cut is warranted.” It pointed to a sharp jump in Q3 wage growth of 5.5%, last month’s rise in euro area price growth, and this month’s expected increase as obstacles to a jumbo cut from the self-described “data-dependent” ECB.
Swap market bets put the likelihood of a 25bp cut next month at 90%, with the chance of a 50bp reduction now at nearly 60%.
Forecasts for member states point to price growth
Projections for EU-harmonised annual headline inflation rates in the Eurozone’s four largest economies imply a rise in the overall number for the currency area. The initial reading from Spain, due Thursday morning (08:00 GMT), is expected to jump to 2.4% from 1.8% last month.
Germany’s preliminary November inflation announcement – set for Thursday afternoon (13:00 GMT) – was forecast to rise to 2.6% from 2.4% last month.
France is scheduled to present initial November inflation data on Friday morning (08:45 GMT), with economists predicting an uptick to 1.7% from 1.6% last month. Later in the day, Italy is set to reveal preliminary consumer price data concurrently with the Eurozone numbers, and analysts forecast a surge to 1.5% from 1.0% last month.
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