European Briefing - Wednesday 21.10
Headlines
  • Witkoff To Present Putin Peace Proposal After Zelenskyy Talks
  • Iran FM: Strait Of Hormuz Remain Closed Until Agreement Is Reached
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu Pushes To Resume Israeli Strikes Against Iran
  • ECB's Lane: Greater Global Euro Use May Help ECB Control Inflation
  • BoE’s Greene Calls For Nov Hike As UK Wage Pressures Persist
  • UK Employer Pay Awards Edge Higher To 3.1%, Brightmine Says
  • BoJ Seen Raising Rates To 1.50% In Dec, Maintaining Quarterly Pace
  • Japan’s Sep Export Growth Slows To 16.7%, Missing Estimates
  • RBA Deputy Gov: Inflation Outlook Has Worsened Despite Tighter Policy
  • Goldman Now Sees RBA Raising Rates By 25bps To 4.85% In Nov
  • Tech Credit Risk Hits Fresh Highs On Fears Of Coming Debt Wave
  • Citadel’s Griffin Says AI Is ‘Almost Certainly’ In A Bubble
  • Super Micro Jumps After Preliminary Results Top Estimates
  • Netflix Revenue Growth Slows As It Overhauls Programming Units
  • Capital One Profit Beats As Lender’s Revenue Rises More Than 6%
  • Tesla And SpaceX Form Committees To Explore Potential Merger
  • SpaceX Profit Beats Estimates On Big Jump In AI Business Revenue
  • Boeing Wins Approval For Largest 737 MAX Variant
  • United Airlines Forecasts Q4 Profit Below Estimates As Fuel Costs Bite
  • CATL’s Slower Profit Growth Fans Fears For China Battery Rivals
Commentary
BoE’s Greene Says UK Labour Market Is Not As Weak As Thought

Bank of England rate-setter Megan Greene warned that an easing in UK wage pressures has stalled, suggesting that the labor market is stronger than officials had thought.

Greene on Tuesday called on colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee to “proactively lean” against the risk of a feedback loop in prices by hiking interest rates at their next meeting in early November. (BBG – Continue Reading)

Japan Exports Post Huge Miss In Sept As Growth Slows To 16.7%

Japan’s exports in September rose 16.7% from a year earlier, missing market expectations by a huge margin. Reuters-polled analysts had pegged exports growth at 20.1%.

This is the second straight month that shipments from Japan have recorded a slowdown, after hitting a nearly four-year high in July.

Growth was supported by continued strong semiconductor exports, with shipments rising 49.4% year on year by value. (CNBC – Continue Reading)

Australia Central Banker: Policy Working, Inflation Outlook Worse

A top Australian central banker on Wednesday said tighter monetary policy was working to slow the economy but the inflation outlook had still worsened, leaving him unsure on whether ⁠rates would need to rise further.

Speaking at a Citi conference, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the bank's economists were finalising their forecasts on the outlook and he ⁠did not know for sure what the RBA board would decide at its next meeting.

The central ⁠bank meets on November 3 to decide whether to raise its ⁠4.60% cash rate for a fifth time this year ⁠as it struggles to bring inflation under control. (RTRS – Continue Reading)

US To Offer Putin Face-to-face Talks With Zelenskyy And Trump

US special envoy Steve Witkoff will offer Vladimir Putin direct talks with President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an effort to secure a ceasefire.

The proposal for three-way leaders’ negotiations on a peace proposal, the first such summit since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, was announced at a press conference Tuesday after talks in Norway between Zelenskyy and Witkoff.

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, who hosted the talks, said Witkoff will travel to Russia Wednesday and set out proposals for peace terms, including the idea of a three-way summit between the leaders. The meeting in Oslo came after days of high tensions between Ukraine and the US president. (Politico – Continue Reading)

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/*jshint esversion: 6 */ var socket; var assigned_server = 3001; var distributor_server = 3010; var publisher_channel = ''; var broadcaster_channel = ''; var remote_ip = ''; var session_info = {}; var logging_interval; var logging_interval_time = 120000; var socket_emits = 0; var session_start_time; var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2; var reconnection_delay = 1000; var playing = false; var connected_to_assigned = false; var socket_close_timeout; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; const TOKEN_ENDPOINT = "https://www.livesquawk.com/api/get_token.php"; self.onmessage = function (msg) { switch(msg.data.action) { case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break; case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break; case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break; case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break; case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break; case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break; case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break; case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break; case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break; case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break; case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break; case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break; case 'GetConnectionState': checkSocketConnectionState(); break; } }; function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() { clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout); player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; } function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() { player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay ); } function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() { postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"}); } function reactivate() { playing = false; connect_to_assigned_server(); } function player_log_response(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse'; data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final; data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket; data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id; data_array.logs = data.logs; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_message_search(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_message_search'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.search_term = data.search_term; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_more_messages(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_more_messages'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function check_channel_status(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'check_channel_status'; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); } else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); } } function check_channel_status_response(data) { postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected }); } async function join_publisher_channel(data) { if (typeof data.jwt_token === 'string' && data.jwt_token !== '') { if (!socket || socket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN) { console.warn("[Page worker] JWT join skipped: socket not open"); return; } socket.send(JSON.stringify({ type: "join_publisher_channel", jwt_token: data.jwt_token, publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel, username: data.username, subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group, display_name: data.display_name, single_sign_on: data.single_sign_on, remote_ip: data.remote_ip, http_referrer: data.http_referrer, current_page: data.current_page, php_session_id: data.php_session_id, from_react: data.from_react, ...(typeof data.api_key === "string" && data.api_key.trim() !== "" ? { api_key: data.api_key } : {}), })); console.log("[Page worker] Sent supplied JWT join"); postMessage({ action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' }); return; } const joinSocket = socket; if (!joinSocket || joinSocket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN) { return; } const apiKey = typeof data.api_key === "string" ? data.api_key.trim() : ""; const partnerName = partnerFromCurrentPage(data.current_page); let tokenBody; if (apiKey !== "") { tokenBody = { api_key: apiKey }; } else if (partnerName) { tokenBody = { partner_name: partnerName }; } else { tokenBody = { username: data.username || "", publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel || "", }; } let jwtToken = null; try { const requestStartedAt = Date.now(); const response = await fetch(TOKEN_ENDPOINT, { method: "POST", headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" }, body: JSON.stringify(tokenBody), credentials: "same-origin", cache: "no-store", }); if (!response.ok) { throw new Error(`token endpoint returned ${response.status}`); } const tokenData = await response.json(); if ( !tokenData || typeof tokenData.token !== "string" || tokenData.token === "" ) { throw new Error("token endpoint returned no token"); } const expiresIn = Number(tokenData.expires_in); if (!Number.isFinite(expiresIn) || expiresIn <= 0) { throw new Error("token endpoint returned an invalid lifetime"); } const expiresAt = requestStartedAt + (expiresIn * 1000); if (expiresAt <= Date.now() + 30000) { throw new Error("token response has insufficient remaining lifetime"); } jwtToken = tokenData.token; } catch (error) { console.warn("[Page worker] Token request failed", error); // API-key requests must not silently bypass token authentication. if (apiKey !== "") { postMessage({ action: "auth_failed" }); return; } } // A reconnect during the fetch makes this join attempt obsolete. if ( socket !== joinSocket || joinSocket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN ) { return; } const payload = { type: "join_publisher_channel", publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel, username: data.username, subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group, display_name: data.display_name, single_sign_on: data.single_sign_on, remote_ip: data.remote_ip, http_referrer: data.http_referrer, current_page: data.current_page, php_session_id: data.php_session_id, from_react: data.from_react, }; if (apiKey !== "") { payload.api_key = apiKey; } if (jwtToken) { payload.jwt_token = jwtToken; } console.log( jwtToken ? "[Page worker] Sending fetched JWT with legacy details" : "[Page worker] Sending legacy join without JWT" ); joinSocket.send(JSON.stringify(payload)); postMessage({ action: "PublisherChannelJoined" }); } function partnerFromCurrentPage(current_page) { try { if (!current_page) return ''; const fullUrl = current_page.startsWith('http') ? current_page : `https://${current_page}`; return new URL(fullUrl).searchParams.get('partner_name') || ''; } catch (e) { return ''; } } function session_static_info(msg) { set_static_session_info(msg.data); start_log(); } function connect_to_distributor(msg) { publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel; remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip; socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); switch(data.type) { case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break; } }; } function session_info_interval() { postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' }); logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time); } function server_assignment_response(data) { assigned_server = data.selected_server; socket.close(); connect_to_assigned_server(); } function request_server_assignment() { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment'; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function connect_to_assigned_server() { socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server }); console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server); postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' }); connected_to_assigned = true; if (playing) { postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' }); } }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ } switch(data.type) { case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break; case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break; case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break; case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break; case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break; case 'player_log_request': case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break; case 'PlayerLogRequest': case 'new_tweet': case 'new_latest_news': case 'delete_report': case 'add_report': case 'add_ref_doc': case 'calendar_change': case 'calendar_insert': case 'calendar_delete': case 'new_note': case 'AppStart': case 'AppStop': case 'BroadcasterStarted': case 'BroadcasterStopped': case 'added_cme_report': case 'updated_cme_report': case 'added_cme_commentary': case 'updated_cme_commentary': case 'server_assignment_response': case 'initial_messages': case 'message_categories': case 'more_messages': case 'matched_messages': pass_straight_to_post_message(data); break; case 'output': case 'server_ping': case 'reconnect': case 'disconnect': break; } }; socket.onerror = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type }); console.log(event); postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' }); }; socket.onclose = function(event) { console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason); socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay); reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor; connected_to_assigned = false; }; } function checkSocketConnectionState() { postMessage({ action: 'SocketConnectionState', connected: Boolean(socket && socket.readyState === WebSocket.OPEN && connected_to_assigned ), }); } function close_socket() { clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout); socket_close_timeout = null; socket.onclose = function(event) {}; socket.onmessage = function(event) {}; socket.onerror = function(event) {}; socket.close(1000); console.log('Socket Closed'); } function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) { data.action = data.type; postMessage(data); } function join_player_channel(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'join_player_channel'; data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel; data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; data_array.username = data.username; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status; data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; data_array.current_page = data.current_page; data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' }); playing = true; } function start_log_response(data) { session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id; session_info_interval(); } function application_refresh_start(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); } } function application_refresh_stop(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); } } function set_static_session_info(data) { session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename; session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name; session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent; session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version; session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled; session_info.platform = data.platform; session_info.player_version = data.player_version; session_info.stream = data.stream; session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol; session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target; session_info.session_email = data.session_email; session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; session_info.application_name = data.application_name; session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; } function start_log() { var session_start_date = new Date(); session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime(); var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec']; var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear(); var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log'; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.username = session_info.session_email; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.webrtc_protocol = ''; data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0); data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream; data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function update_session_info(data) { var data_array = {}; var msg_string = ''; var current_date = new Date(); var current_time = current_date.getTime(); session_info.protocol = data.protocol; session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2); session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time; session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time; session_info.jitter = data.jitter; session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss; session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency; session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score; session_info.restarts = data.restarts; if (socket_emits == 0) { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full'; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename; data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name; data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent; data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version; data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled; data_array.platform = session_info.platform; data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.delay_target = 0; data_array.op_sys = ''; data_array.flash_version = ''; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } else { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data'; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } socket_emits++; if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; } }