Inflation and activity data take centre stage, with UK and Canadian CPI, China’s third-quarter GDP and Friday’s flash PMIs likely to shape rate expectations. New Zealand and Japanese inflation will also test whether higher energy costs and currency weakness are broadening domestic price pressures.

The Federal Reserve enters its communications blackout ahead of the 28 October meeting. The ECB’s quiet period begins Thursday, while Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and rate-setter Megan Greene speak before the MPC enters its own blackout.

Geopolitical developments remain a key market risk after renewed disruption to Middle East energy supplies lifted oil prices and government-bond yields. APEC finance ministers meet in Hong Kong, while markets will also follow an Alberta referendum, French sovereign-rating reviews and earnings from Netflix, Tesla and Meta. (LS – Continue Reading)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed that he, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet next month to talk about Ukraine in an attempt to negotiate an end to the four-year conflict that would favor Moscow, said people familiar with the discussions.

The plan represents an effort by Putin to capitalize on warming ties between Trump and the Russian leader that have alarmed Ukraine and its allies in Washington and Europe. Such a summit—one without the involvement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—would be unprecedented and send alarm bells ringing in European capitals and beyond. (WSJ – Continue Reading)

China’s economic growth accelerated to 4.5% in the third quarter from a year earlier, as robust foreign demand for the country’s technological goods largely offset drags from a deepening property slump and sluggish consumer demand.

Third-quarter growth beat Reuters-polled economists’ expectation of a 4.4% expansion, and was also higher than the three-year low of 4.3% in the second quarter.

“The rebound in September salvaged the lukewarm performance in July and August,” said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit, attributing the recovery to improved government investment that helped arrest the consistent worsening in fixed asset investment, an “ever-strong” external sector and a weak base. China’s monthly trade surplus reached a record high of $133.5 billion. (CNBC – Continue Reading)

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday underlying inflation is "quite close" to the central bank's 2% target with strong global AI demand adding to inflationary pressure from a tight job market.

The remarks came ahead of the central bank's key policy meeting later this month, where it will release fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts which will be scrutinised by markets for clues on the next interest rate-hike timing.

"It is becoming more ⁠important to anchor underlying inflation around our 2% target," Ueda told parliament. While rising raw material costs from the Middle East conflict were pushing up inflation, a tight job market and moderate economic recovery were also applying demand-driven price pressure, Ueda said. (RTRS – Continue Reading)