US inflation data at the start of September appeared sufficient to push the Federal Reserve beyond its tolerance threshold, with this week’s figures expected to validate the central bank’s mid-month rate hike.

The latest economist poll forecasts headline PCE prices rising 0.3% m/m in August, up one-tenth from July, with the annual rate seen unchanged at 3.7%.

Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation gauge, is also expected to rise 0.3% m/m, up one-tenth from July, while the annual rate is seen matching July’s 3.5% pace. (RTRS – Continue Reading)

Federal Reserve policymakers probably only need to deliver one more rate hike this year to get inflation back on track to the US central bank's 2% goal, New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday, in what amounted to a pushback against mounting expectations for earlier policy tightening.

“With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency,” Williams said at the University at Buffalo, in Buffalo, New York. Watching incoming data before deciding what's next “should provide greater clarity” on how the economy is performing, Williams said.

“If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target,” Williams said, while adding “that is just my forecast, and time — and the totality of the data — will tell.” (RTRS – Continue Reading)

China’s factory activity returned to growth in September as a deepening economic malaise prompts policymakers to ramp up stimulus steps and bolster growth.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.1 from 49.8 in August, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Wednesday, in line with analysts’ forecast for a modest expansion of 50.1 in a Reuters poll.

The modest expansion was driven by accelerated activity in equipment and high-tech-related manufacturing, as well as consumer industries, according to NBS chief statistician Huo Lihui. (CNBC – Continue Reading)

Australian inflation cooled in August, absorbing a surge in fuel costs and prompting traders to wind back bets on the Reserve Bank delivering a follow-up increase in interest rates at its next meeting.

The closely watched trimmed-mean gauge of consumer prices rose 0.2% from the prior month, when it climbed 0.5%, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. On an annual basis, core inflation came in at 3.6%, matching estimates and the prior month’s reading. (BBG – Continue Reading)