It is all about the three central-bank decisions that dominate the week's agenda. The FOMC faces an unusually close call on Wednesday after firm inflation and employment data strengthened the case for a 25bp rise. The BoE is expected to deliver a divided and more hawkish hold on Thursday, before the BoJ raises rates on Friday.

Canada’s CPI opens the week, followed by China’s activity figures and the UK labour report on Tuesday. Wednesday also brings UK inflation and US retail sales. Eurozone final HICP, New Zealand GDP, Japanese inflation and UK retail sales complete a busy data calendar.

Weekend reports that Saudi Arabia had shut its East-West oil pipeline have added a new dimension to the current crisis. Energy markets remain the principal external risk as the conflict with Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz sustain inflation concerns. Global bond yields have returned to multi-year highs, increasing the pressure on policymakers to defend their inflation credentials. Markets will also digest Sweden’s closely fought election, while EU finance ministers meet in Dublin on Friday. (LS – Continue Reading)

Oil pushed higher after Saudi Arabia shut a major crude pipeline following attacks, disrupting a route used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Iran war and deepening a global energy crunch.

Brent rose as much as 3.7% to above $108 a barrel, before paring gains, while West Texas Intermediate was near $103. Saudi Arabia said late on Friday that it had halted the East-West pipeline as a precaution after attacks the previous day. There’s been no indication of when operations will resume. (BBG – Continue Reading)

Goldman Sachs expects the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, joining a growing number of Wall Street firms that see further policy tightening as inflation concerns persist.

In a note on Friday, the brokerage reversed its previous call for the Fed to ⁠keep rates unchanged, citing markets pricing that points to a high probability of a rate hike and policymakers' likely reluctance to surprise investors with a pause.

Goldman Sachs said the shift was driven primarily by market pricing rather than a significant change in its economic outlook, adding that the recent surge in oil prices could make ⁠some policymakers more inclined to support additional tightening. (RTRS – Continue Reading)

China’s economy is moving into a period that could determine the course of stimulus through the end of the year, as consumers remain gripped by malaise despite signs of stabilizing growth.

As weather conditions improve and fresh funding starts flowing into projects, official data due Tuesday will show industrial production rebounded in August, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. By contrast, a slump in investment likely deteriorated while a key measure of consumer spending eked out growth of less than 1%. (BBG – Continue Reading)