- BoC Set To Hold As Middle East Conflict Revives Inflation Risks
- Trump Held Situation Room Meeting On Massive New Iran Strikes
- Trump Says US To Abandon Proposed Strait Of Hormuz Cargo Fee
- US Backs Iraq-Syria Oil Pipeline To Weaken Iran’s Hormuz Hold
- New Russia Oil Sanctions Bill Targets China, India For Tariffs
- Bond Traders Ditch July Rate-Hike Bets On Surprise Inflation Dip
- Warsh Tells Congress The Fed Has ‘No Tolerance’ For High Inflation
- Bank Of England’s Bailey Pushes Back Against Deregulation
- BoE Governor Urges UK Growth Push In Direct Appeal To Burnham
- UK PM Starmer Nears Exit With Record That Failed By His Own Metrics
- Ukraine To Buy Chinese Drone Parts With EU Funds
- China’s GDP Growth Unexpectedly Dips Below Official Target Range
- China Slashes Oil Refining Volumes After Crude Imports Collapse
- Japan Manufacturers Stay Upbeat On Chip Demand, Services Hit By Costs
- Rio Tinto Iron Ore Shipments Rise; Copper Cost Guidance Lowered
The renewed fighting in the Middle East will undoubtedly concern central bankers and raise inflation risks for the Canadian economy. For now, however, the Bank of Canada’s policy stance appears appropriate. The Governing Council is widely expected to keep its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%.
Alongside the decision, the BoC will publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), setting out its updated base-case projections for Canadian growth and inflation, alongside its assessment of the risks.
BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes noted that the bank has made clear that the hurdle for a policy shift in either direction is currently quite high. “There has been more concern about upside inflation risks in recent months due to the war-driven spike in energy prices. However, oil is now well off the highs, even with hostilities ramping up again this week.” (LS – Continue Reading)
China’s economy slowed more than expected last quarter to the weakest in more than three years, turning the attention to what policymakers will do next to ensure their annual growth goal is met.
Gross domestic product grew 4.3% from a year ago, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, below the bottom of this year’s official target range of 4.5% to 5%. That compares with a 4.5% gain projected by economists polled by Bloomberg, following an increase of 5% in the first quarter. (BBG – Continue Reading)
Japanese manufacturers' sentiment remained relatively upbeat in July, supported by solid semiconductor demand, while confidence among non-manufacturers fell as the Middle East conflict, a weak yen and rising interest rates pushed up costs, the latest Reuters Tankan survey showed.
The monthly poll, a leading indicator of the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan business survey, showed that the manufacturers' sentiment index was unchanged at plus-13 in July from June.
Manufacturers reported a recovery in the semiconductor market, including in memory-related demand, as well as rapidly expanding orders for products used in chip applications and AI servers. Orders for electronic components were also rising broadly. (RTRS – Continue Reading)
- LS Focus On The Week Ahead
- LiveSquawk Weekly Fixed Income Supply Rundown
- BoC Set To Hold As Middle East Conflict Revives Inflation Risks
- China GDP (Q/Q) Q2: 0.9% (est 0.9%; prev 1.3%)
- China GDP (Y/Y): 4.3% (est 4.5%; prev 5.0%)
- China Industrial Production (Y/Y) Jun: 5.3% (est 4.6%; prev 4.5%)
- China Industrial Production YTD (Y/Y): 5.4% (prev 5.4%)
- China Retail Sales (Y/Y) Jun: 1.0% (est –0.1%; prev –0.6%)
- China Retail Sales YTD (Y/Y): 1.33% (prev 1.4%)
- China Unemployment Rate Jun: 5.0% (est 5.1%; prev 5.1%)
- China Fixed Assets Investment YTD (Y/Y) Jun: -5.7% (est –4.9%; prev –4.1%)
- China House Price Index (Y/Y) Jun: % (est –3.4%; prev –3.5%)
- China House Prices (M/M): -0.1% (prev –0.2%)
- Japan Reuters Tankan Manufacturers Index Jul: +13 (prev +13)
- Japan Non-Manufacturers Index: +25 (prev +32)
- Japan Manufacturers October Index Seen At +14, Non-manufacturers +25
- Japan Machinery Orders (M/M) May: -12.4% (est –4.2%; prev 8.7%)
- Japan Machinery Orders (Y/Y): -1.9% (est 12.9%; prev 15.6%)
- NZ Electronic Retail Card Spending (M/M) Jun: -1.4% (est 0.5%; prev 1.7%)
- NZ Electronic Retail Card Spending (Y/Y): 1.3% (est 3.6%; prev 3.3%)
- US Total Net TIC Flows May: $132.2B (prev $26.1B)
- US Net Long-Term TIC Flows: $232.7B (prev $103.1B)
- Trump Held Situation Room Meeting On Massive New Iran Strikes - Axios
- Trump Says US To Abandon Proposed Strait Of Hormuz Cargo Fee – FT
- US Senate Democrats Block $1.15 Trillion Defense Authorization Bill – TH
- US Supporting Efforts To Revive Iraq-Syria Crude Oil Pipeline, US Official Says - RTRS
- China’s GDP Growth Unexpectedly Dips Below Official Target Range – BBG
- BoJ’s 2016 Negative Rate Shock Shows Split Board Hitting Limit – BBG
- Japan’s Bid To Bring Money Home Faces Fiscal, BoJ Reality Check – BBG
- Japan Manufacturers Stay Upbeat On Chip Demand, Services Hit By Costs – RTRS
- Bank Of Canada Likely To Hold As Hormuz Blocked – BBG
- Warsh Says Inflation Mission Not Accomplished, Hints At Options – BBG
- Warsh Tells Congress The Fed Has ‘No Tolerance’ For High Inflation – WSJ
- Bowman Says Fed Should ‘Not Micromanage’ Banks On Issues Like AI – BBG
- US Sen Warren Calls For Probe Into Fed’s Outside Review Of SVB Failure – BBG
- BofA Sees ‘Strong’ Consumer, Bucking Fears Of Price Pressures – BBG
- US State Dept Offers $3M Grants To Maga-aligned Groups In Europe – FT
- US To Launch AI And Cybersecurity Coordination Group, White House Says – RTRS
- Ukraine To Buy Chinese Drone Parts With EU Funds – FT
- European Defence Groups Plan Interceptor System To Destroy Missiles In Space – FT
- German Chancellor Merz Eyes First Japan Trip In October – Nikkei
- Bank Of England's Bailey Pushes Back Against Deregulation – RTRS
- BoE Governor Urges UK Growth Push In Direct Appeal To Burnham - BBG
- UK’s Reeves: ‘No Alliance’ More Important Than With EU – Telegraph
- Ahead Of Likely Exit, UK's Reeves Defends Record And Stresses Credibility – EN
- UK PM Starmer Nears Exit With Record That Failed By His Own Metrics – BBG
- Australia Sold A$700M 2033 Bonds: 4.6620%; B/C 4.2857x
- Bond Traders Ditch July Rate-Hike Bets On Surprise Inflation Dip – BBG
- Foreign Holdings Of US Treasuries Rose In May, Led By Canada – BBG
- Bond Traders’ Big Short Bet In Fed Funds Slammed By CPI Decline – BBG
- Big US Banks Set Aside Less Money For Loan Losses In Quarter – BBG
- Japanese Retail Traders Boost Dollar Shorts To Most Since 2008 – BBG
- Singapore Dollar Edges Higher Amid Reduced Fed Rate-Hike Expectations – WSJ
- China Slashes Oil Refining Volumes After Crude Imports Collapse – BBG
- New Russia Oil Sanctions Bill Targets China, India For Tariffs – BBG
- Texas Port CEO Sees US Oil Exports Holding Above Prewar Levels – BBG
- LNG Canada, Indigenous Groups Agree $711M Equity Option – BBG
- Giant Copper Mines Brace For Winter Deluge In Top Producer Chile – BBG
- Largest US Grid Misses Power Supply Target Amid AI Surge – BBG
- Rio Tinto Iron Ore Shipments Rise; Copper Cost Guidance Lowered – WSJ
- Asia Stocks Gain On Softer US Inflation, Oil Rises As US Restarts Blockade – WSJ
- China’s DeepSeek Prepares To List Shares In Shanghai Next Year – WSJ
- BYD Can Take Toyota’s Crown Without The US Market, Says Top Executive – FT
- Oracle Leads Race To Supply Japan With Top-Secret Cloud Services – FT
- Samsung Builds New DRAM Factory In Giheung, SK To Meet Chip Demand – CB
- OpenAI Unaware Of ‘Any Evidence’ Showing Apple Lawsuit Has Merit – BBG
- OpenAI’s First Device Will Be Moveable, Screenless Speaker AI Companion – BBG
- SpaceX Fizzles To Close $1 Above IPO Price Weeks After Debut – BBG
- Roche To Test Brainshuttle Therapy In Bid To Prevent Alzheimer’s - BBG