Central bank meetings dominate the calendar, with Wednesday’s FOMC decision the main event. Policy updates from the Swiss National Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and Brazil’s Selic committee will round out a heavy week for global rates. 

On the US data front, BofA noted that the BLS, BEA and Census have been rolling out updated data calendars. “Before the Jan FOMC meeting, we can expect to get three more payroll prints (Oct, Nov, Dec) and two more u-rates (Nov, Dec). On the inflation front, we'll get Nov and Dec CPI. We'll also get retail sales for Oct, Nov and maybe Dec. The Oct Household Survey (u-rate) and CPI are cancelled, but we are still waiting to learn the rescheduled release dates for Oct and Nov PCE and PPI.” 

Japan wage data due Tuesday is likely to add to the debate among policymakers regarding the rate hike conundrum. Barclays said it expects wage growth to hold steady, albeit weaker than implied by the 2025 shunto hikes, due to a downward bias resulting from the resampling of the data earlier in the year. (LS – Continue Reading) 

Inflation in the euro zone faces downside risks in the medium term, even as price growth has returned to the ECB's 2% target, European Central Bank policymaker Olli Rehn said, according to a report in a magazine on Saturday.

The sharp drop from the October 2022 peak of 10.6% to around 2% currently was achieved without triggering mass unemployment or a severe slowdown, he told Italian financial magazine Milano Finanza. 

"The good news is that inflation has stabilized around the ECB's symmetric 2% target, supporting real incomes in Europe," he said. "Our latest forecast suggests inflation will remain slightly below 2% over the horizon." (RTRS – Continue Reading) 

Japan’s economy shrank in the three months through September, the government confirmed in a revised report, giving further justification for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package announced last month.

Gross domestic product fell at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the third quarter, as revised figures showed business spending and housing investment came in weaker than preliminary figures. The contraction was deeper than the initial reading of a 1.8% fall, and was the first in six quarters. (BBG – Continue Reading)