A leading measure of German investor confidence is expected to show a bit less optimism about the near future and but more about the present as more market participants predict looser monetary policy from major central banks in the months ahead.

An economists’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from this month’s survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will slip to 8.8 points from 9.8 in November.

The institute’s current conditions indicator is forecast to improve to -75.5 from -79.8, which was a tenth better than its lowest market in over three years.

(Continue Reading - LiveSquawk)

Bank of Japan officials see little need to rush into scrapping the world’s last negative interest rate this month as they have yet to see enough evidence of wage growth that would support sustainable inflation, according to people familiar with the matter.

That’s an indication the central bank is likely to keep its monetary stimulus settings unchanged at a two-day policy meeting ending Dec. 19, despite recent market speculation that the negative rate may be scrapped as soon as the December meeting. BOJ officials view the potential cost of waiting for more information to confirm solid wage growth as not very high, the people said.

(Continue Reading - Bloomberg)

Investors spent most of 2023 fretting about inflation and interest rates. Now they are snapping up everything from stocks and bonds to crypto and even gold.

The simultaneous surge across assets has sparked debate about whether the “everything rally” marks the arrival of a lasting bull market—or just a fleeting sugar high at the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.

At the start of the year, interest rates were rising and Wall Street was bracing for a recession. Major stock indexes rallied, driven largely by the “Magnificent Seven” group of technology stocks, but most other sectors languished.  

(Continue Reading - WSJ)

The S&P 500 Index will hit a record high in 2024 as the US avoids sinking into a recession, although a weaker consumer will mean the index gains less than this year’s 20% surge, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.

A median of 518 respondents expect the S&P 500 to climb to 4,808 points next year — topping its previous closing peak of 4,797 hit in January 2022 — and the 10-year Treasury yield to drop to 3.8% from this year’s high of 5%.

More than two thirds of respondents indicated they don’t see a hard economic landing as the top risk to markets and majority expects Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to begin before July.

(Continue Reading - Bloomberg)