FRANKFURT – A leading measure of German investor confidence is expected to show a bit less optimism about the near future and but more about the present as more market participants predict looser monetary policy from major central banks in the months ahead.
An economists’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from this month’s survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will slip to 8.8 points from 9.8 in November.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is forecast to improve to -75.5 from -79.8, which was a tenth better than its lowest market in over three years.
Observers seem split about the direction of this month’s indicator, with a number pointing to last week’s survey results from Sentix, which said last investors had become a bit more concerned about the future and less so about the present. It noted that Europe’s largest economy still wasn’t on the up and up: “There is still no sign of a turnaround in Germany.”
HSBC had a different view, pointing out that “hopes for a quick reversal in central bank policy rates in both the Eurozone and the US have led to a significant rally on bond and stock markets, with the DAX index reaching an all-time high. This should help to boost the mood of financial market participants and push ZEW expectations from 9.8 points to 15.0pts, the highest level since February 2023.”
The DAX 40 index of German blue chips has risen more than 9% since last month’s ZEW report.
The European Central Bank held interest rates steady in October, and traders are already pricing in cuts for as early as March. Part of the decision of central bank officials to stop raising borrowing costs was based on further declines in Eurozone inflation, which have since fallen again, according to preliminary data.
Purchasing managers indices (PMIs) have been improving for Germany, but not enough to signal growth. The November composite reading, which combines manufacturing and services measures, increased to 47.8 from 45.9 in October, leaving it in contraction territory below the 50-point mark.
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var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
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data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
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- Expectations poised to slip to 8.8 points (prev 9.8)
- Current situation expected at -75.5 prev -79.8
- Changes projected in-line with Sentix poll results
- Some analysts predict surge in future optimism
- Likely end of interest rate hikes spur hopes
- Data due Tuesday at 10:00 GMT / 11:00 CET
By Eric Culp, European Editor
LiveSquawk News
@EricCulpLS
11 December 2023 | 12:10 GMT
FRANKFURT – A leading measure of German investor confidence is expected to show a bit less optimism about the near future and but more about the present as more market participants predict looser monetary policy from major central banks in the months ahead.
An economists’ poll predicted that the forward-looking economic sentiment reading from this month’s survey conducted by Germany’s ZEW economic institute will slip to 8.8 points from 9.8 in November.
The institute’s current conditions indicator is forecast to improve to -75.5 from -79.8, which was a tenth better than its lowest market in over three years.
Observers seem split about the direction of this month’s indicator, with a number pointing to last week’s survey results from Sentix, which said last investors had become a bit more concerned about the future and less so about the present. It noted that Europe’s largest economy still wasn’t on the up and up: “There is still no sign of a turnaround in Germany.”
HSBC had a different view, pointing out that “hopes for a quick reversal in central bank policy rates in both the Eurozone and the US have led to a significant rally on bond and stock markets, with the DAX index reaching an all-time high. This should help to boost the mood of financial market participants and push ZEW expectations from 9.8 points to 15.0pts, the highest level since February 2023.”
The DAX 40 index of German blue chips has risen more than 9% since last month’s ZEW report.
The European Central Bank held interest rates steady in October, and traders are already pricing in cuts for as early as March. Part of the decision of central bank officials to stop raising borrowing costs was based on further declines in Eurozone inflation, which have since fallen again, according to preliminary data.
Purchasing managers indices (PMIs) have been improving for Germany, but not enough to signal growth. The November composite reading, which combines manufacturing and services measures, increased to 47.8 from 45.9 in October, leaving it in contraction territory below the 50-point mark.