Managers in Germany are expected to express a sliver more optimism about the present and thus their overall business environment despite sky high fuel prices in the world’s third-largest economy.

An economists’ poll said the headline business climate index for Germany due Wednesday from the country’s Ifo economics institute was forecast to edge higher to 90.1 points from September’s reading of 89.9, which was the strongest since May 2023

The expectations measure of the index for the coming six months is projected to slip a tenth to 90.3 points, with October’s current assessment reading set to improve to 89.8 from 89.5 in the previous month.

Germany’s ZEW investor confidence gauge sent mixed messages this month, with the outlook declining but the current situation reading on the rise.

Further disparity of views came from purchasing managers on Friday. Initial September data from S&P Global said the composite PMI for Germany sank to a two-month low of 52.8 points to remain in growth territory above the 50 mark. Services declined to 51.7, also a 2-month low Manufacturing climbed to a two-month high of 54.2.

(Continue Reading - LiveSquawk)

The U.S. is expected to remove 50% tariffs on some Canadian products in a bid to help Maine Sen. Susan Collins and other Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections, according to people familiar with the upcoming action.

The proclamation altering the tariffs, which could come as early as Friday, will likely remove 50% tariffs on certain agricultural and forestry products, according to the people, who emphasized that the scope and timing of the action could change. The tariff reductions could be balanced out by raising levies on other Canadian goods.

(Continue Reading - WSJ)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on ​Friday that peace negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States had agreed to meet at a technical level in the ‌first half of November in Abu Dhabi, adding that he hoped a meeting of the countries' leaders would follow.

Zelenskiy said he spoke with US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff on Friday after their meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this week. He said any peace agreement would need strong security guarantees for Ukraine and funding for 10 years ​to maintain the Ukrainian army.

(Continue Reading - Reuters)

Governments worldwide are borrowing at the highest interest rates in 15 to 20 years. In early October, the US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest level since 2002. Japan’s 10 year yield moved above 3% for the first time since 1996, while the German equivalent reached its highest level since 2011.

Within Europe, France now pays its highest risk premium since the euro crisis. The spread between French and German 10-year yields, the OAT-Bund spread, rose above 170 basis points on 22 October, compared with roughly 55 in February.

This raises several questions. Why has market unease returned now? What determines whether a country can carry its debt? Why is France under particular scrutiny, while countries with even higher debt ratios are still given the benefit of the doubt? And are we heading toward another debt crisis? This article offers a framework for answering those questions and discusses the most likely scenario according to RaboResearch.

(Continue Reading - Rabobank)