After months of on-again, off-again fighting, the United States hasn't struck Iran in several weeks. The stretch of relative tranquility is coinciding with the final phase of the midterm-election campaign, and the assumption has been that President Trump will want to keep it going through November 3 so as not to remind voters of an unpopular war that is dragging Republican candidates down nationwide.

But that may not be what happens. The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be exercised ahead of the midterms, according to two administration officials. The planning underscores just how much the president wants to reduce gas prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before the vote, administration officials told us.

(Continue Reading - The Atlantic)

Federal Reserve officials expect they will raise interest rates again before the end of the year to head off inflation that has run above target for more than five years, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

But the meeting summary provided no indication of when specifically policymakers expected to raise benchmark rates – only that persistently higher prices and a stable labor market likely would lead to a second hike this year. The Fed next decides on rates on Oct. 28 and then again on Dec. 9.

“With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end,” the document stated.

(Continue Reading – CNBC)

The EU will only conduct further releases of oil and diesel reserves after the International Energy Agency has made it clear such a move would not be damaging to the bloc's energy security, three diplomats familiar with the matter told POLITICO.

The Group of Seven — which includes Italy, Japan. Germany the U.K., France and the U.S. — agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel after U.S. officials threatened to ban diesel exports if they didn't tap stockpiles.

However, the IEA appeared to confirm Wednesday that that release would draw from stocks pledged under an agreement in March and not include additional supplies. In other words, it would not amount to a new release at all, but would simply fulfil prior promises.

(Continue Reading – POLITICO)

Inflation fears intensified in September, pushing the near-term outlook in the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly survey to its highest level in nearly 3½ years.

The central bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median view for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%, up 0.3 percentage point from August and the highest level since May 2023, when the figure was at 4.1%.

Similarly, the survey found that household spending growth is expected to hit 5.5%, also up 0.3 percentage point month over month and the highest since May 2023.

The results come with Fed officials grappling over the proper setting of monetary policy as inflation holds well above the central bank’s 2% target.

(Continue Reading – CNBC)

France’s finance ministry said it is not changing its strategy for bond issuance and will continue to use the flexibility it has at auctions.

The comments came after the Wall Street Journal reported the country is considering issuing more shorter-term debt after recent selloffs of long-dated bonds. The article cited an interview with Finance Minister Roland Lescure.

(Continue Reading – Bloomberg)