The Trump administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in going back to the terms of the memorandum of understanding it reached with Iran in June, complicating this week’s flurry of efforts to restart the diplomatic process, people familiar with the matter said.

The preliminary deal that President Trump signed at the Palace of Versailles and which Vice President JD Vance helped negotiate aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and kick-start talks on Iran’s nuclear program and an end to the war in exchange for sanctions relief and giving Tehran access to its frozen cash around the world. But it fell apart within weeks after Iran started attacking ships to assert its control over the vital waterway.

(Continue Reading – WSJ)

At its July meeting, the ECB left interest rates unchanged. Nevertheless, President Christine Lagarde revealed that some ECB members had argued in favour of a rate hike, even though they ultimately backed the decision to stay on hold. That was an important signal that the ECB was edging closer to further tightening. The just-released minutes of the July meeting not only shed more light on that debate but, together with recent macroeconomic developments, strengthen the case for a September rate hike.

(Continue Reading – ING)

President Trump told Axios in a phone interview on Thursday that he isn't concerned that Russia will attack NATO countries.

Why it matters: European leaders have grown extremely concerned and warned publicly that Moscow could test NATO's resolve — and Trump's commitment to Article 5, the alliance's collective-defence clause — through a limited attack or other military provocations.

(Continue Reading – Axios)

One of the first reports Citrini ever circulated was a thesis arguing that Silicon Valley Bank was technically insolvent and at serious risk of failing. In March 2023, SVB collapsed and the report (along with a handful of tweets detailing the setup) began to make the rounds.

When the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) backstopped interest rate risk from being realized in the banking system, we viewed that as an “all clear” signal to invest in growth. The last transmission mechanism for monetary policy to slow the economy had been taken off the board and tech looked appealing after a year-long brutal bear market.

Six weeks later, that thesis had become the spine of the first ever paywalled piece on this newsletter, Artificial Intelligence: Global Equity Beneficiaries. CitriniResearch was born.

For this month’s macro memo, we’re returning to our roots and examining a setup three years in the making. One that has been brewing since the SIVB/FRC pseudo-crisis put GFC-era liquidity regulations back under the microscope.

(Continue Reading – Citrini Research)