Shortly after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh took the podium after his first Fed meeting and said jobs data had "been moving in a good direction," the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a report that showed the U.S. added just 57,000 new jobs in June, well below the 115,000 economists expected.

Additionally, job growth for April and May was revised lower. Does this mean we should worry about the July jobs report, due out Friday morning? Maybe not.

"The June number was partly payback for strong growth in the previous three months, but it mostly suffered from a large decrease in employment at hotels and in food service," writes David Payne, staff economist at The Kiplinger Letter, in the Kiplinger jobs outlook. "This drop was also a partial pullback from an increase in May, and is probably related to changes in staff planning for World Cup attendees."

(Continue Reading - Kiplinger)

Iran’s parliament is reviewing a draft bill that would significantly tighten state control over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, including by banning vessels linked to the United States, Israel and other countries Tehran designates as hostile, the semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported Thursday.

Tasnim cited Abbas Salimi, a member of parliament’s presiding board, as saying the preliminary text of the Strategic Action for the Security and Sustainable Development of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf is being reviewed by parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee.

Under the draft, vessels belonging to the United States, Israel and other countries Iran considers hostile would be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

(Continue Reading - AA)

Alphabet Inc. has received about $115 billion of orders for its latest jumbo bond sale, signalling renewed investor appetite for debt tied to the artificial intelligence boom after a recent selloff.

With an order book of that magnitude, the deal has attracted more than four times the anticipated size of as much as $25 billion, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak publicly.

(Continue Reading – Bloomberg)

Fitch Ratings’ base-case Brent oil price assumption of USD87/barrel on average in 2026 already incorporates a substantial geopolitical risk premium, including renewed flare-ups, hostilities or even a short-term hot war in the Middle East.

However, we continue to see downside risks to our 2026 assumption. This reflects a material cushion in the price assumption, additional supply from volumes shipped during the June reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adequate inventories, our expectation of a rapid recovery in Middle East supply once hostilities ease, and our forecast that the global market will return to oversupply from September.

The base-case price assumes Brent at USD110/barrel in June and USD100/barrel in July, well above the actual price of about USD84/barrel in both months, with the current price at USD79/barrel. Our 4Q26 forecast of USD70/barrel still includes a significant premium.

(Continue Reading – Fitch)