US job growth is under the microscope again, with investors looking for signs of a deterioration.

The latest economist consensus estimate is for an addition of 65,000 payrolled workers in April, down from last month’s surprisingly strong 178,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%. On wages, analysts project 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y growth in average hourly earnings.

Referencing last month’s broad-based gains across industries, Deutsche Bank’s Brett Rayner noted that some of that strength was a function of a strike resolution at a major healthcare company as well as a possible seasonal boost from the shifting Easter holiday.

The analyst forecasts an uptick in both average earnings and workweek hours, which, he said, if accurate, would yield a healthy pace of aggregate nominal wage growth. “Though we see slight downside risks to our payroll forecasts, the balance of this week’s labour market data leading up to Friday’s report should be positive in the eyes of Fed officials who are gaining confidence in the stability of the labour market – partly due to shifting views on labour supply.” (LiveSquawk – Continue Reading)

The United States and Iran are edging toward a temporary agreement to halt their war, sources and officials said on Thursday, with Tehran reviewing a proposal that would stop the fighting but leave the most contentious issues unresolved.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said Tehran had not yet reached a conclusion on the emerging plan, which according to the sources centres on a short-term memorandum rather than a comprehensive peace deal, underscoring deep divisions between the two sides. (Reuters – Continue Reading)

Iran has created a government agency to vet and tax vessels seeking passage through the crucial Strait of Hormuz , a shipping data company reported Thursday, as Tehran said it was reviewing the latest U.S. proposals for ending the war. (Washington Post – Continue Reading)

Artificial intelligence is transforming how the financial system copes with vulnerabilities and reacts to incidents. Yet it is also amplifying cyber threats that can undermine financial stability when the offensive capabilities of intruders outpace defenses.

IMF analysis suggests that extreme cyber‑incident losses could trigger funding strains, raise solvency concerns, and disrupt broader markets.

The financial system relies on shared digital infrastructure that’s highly interconnected, including software, cloud services, and networks for payments and other data. Advanced AI models can dramatically reduce the time and cost needed to identify and exploit vulnerabilities, raising the likelihood of simultaneously discovering and targeting weaknesses in widely used systems. As a result, cyber risk is increasingly about correlated failures that could disrupt financial intermediation, payments, and confidence at the systemic level. (IMF – Continue Reading)