US job growth is under the microscope again, with investors looking for signs of a deterioration.
The latest economist consensus estimate is for an addition of 65,000 payrolled workers in April, down from last month’s surprisingly strong 178,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%. On wages, analysts project 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y growth in average hourly earnings.
Referencing last month’s broad-based gains across industries, Deutsche Bank’s Brett Rayner noted that some of that strength was a function of a strike resolution at a major healthcare company as well as a possible seasonal boost from the shifting Easter holiday.
The analyst forecasts an uptick in both average earnings and workweek hours, which, he said, if accurate, would yield a healthy pace of aggregate nominal wage growth. “Though we see slight downside risks to our payroll forecasts, the balance of this week’s labour market data leading up to Friday’s report should be positive in the eyes of Fed officials who are gaining confidence in the stability of the labour market – partly due to shifting views on labour supply.”
“Though we see slight downside risks to our payroll forecast, the balance of this week’s labour market data leading up to Friday’s report should be positive in the eyes of Fed officials, who are gaining confidence in the stability of the labour market – partly due to shifting views on labour supply,” Ryan said.
Healthcare employment is expected to pick up again and remain a major contributor to private-sector job creation.
Officials look for further signs of deterioration
Last week, the US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee voted to hold interest rates within its 3.50%-3.75% range, with committee members Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan supporting maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate, but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.
Following the decision, the April FOMC statement noted that “job gains have remained low, on average”, and that the unemployment rate had been “little changed in recent months.”
On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, speaking at the University of Detroit Mercy, said that “the labour market appears to be balanced.”
However, he stressed that the Fed faced downside risks to employment, alongside upside risks to inflation stemming from higher energy prices and tensions in the Middle East.
Jefferson added that businesses had become more hesitant to hire and warned that employment risks had risen alongside inflation risks linked to higher energy costs. Nevertheless, he argued that policy remained “well positioned” to support employment while inflation stayed above target.
New York Fed’s John Williams speaking on 4 May said that labour market signals were “mixed”.
Currently, on the whole, policymakers do not appear to see sufficient deterioration to prioritise rate cuts over inflation concerns yet.
Click to enlarge
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- April payroll growth seen slowing sharply
- Fed says labour market gains remain low
- Slower immigration threatens payrolls stability
- Experts warn on AI-related sector weakness
- Data scheduled for release at 08:30 EST/12:30 GMT
By Harry Daniels
LiveSquawk News
@HarryDaniels71
7 May 2026 | 16:30 GMT
US job growth is under the microscope again, with investors looking for signs of a deterioration.
The latest economist consensus estimate is for an addition of 65,000 payrolled workers in April, down from last month’s surprisingly strong 178,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%. On wages, analysts project 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y growth in average hourly earnings.
Referencing last month’s broad-based gains across industries, Deutsche Bank’s Brett Rayner noted that some of that strength was a function of a strike resolution at a major healthcare company as well as a possible seasonal boost from the shifting Easter holiday.
The analyst forecasts an uptick in both average earnings and workweek hours, which, he said, if accurate, would yield a healthy pace of aggregate nominal wage growth. “Though we see slight downside risks to our payroll forecasts, the balance of this week’s labour market data leading up to Friday’s report should be positive in the eyes of Fed officials who are gaining confidence in the stability of the labour market – partly due to shifting views on labour supply.”
“Though we see slight downside risks to our payroll forecast, the balance of this week’s labour market data leading up to Friday’s report should be positive in the eyes of Fed officials, who are gaining confidence in the stability of the labour market – partly due to shifting views on labour supply,” Ryan said.
Healthcare employment is expected to pick up again and remain a major contributor to private-sector job creation.
Last week, the US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee voted to hold interest rates within its 3.50%-3.75% range, with committee members Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan supporting maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate, but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.
Following the decision, the April FOMC statement noted that “job gains have remained low, on average”, and that the unemployment rate had been “little changed in recent months.”
On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, speaking at the University of Detroit Mercy, said that “the labour market appears to be balanced.”
However, he stressed that the Fed faced downside risks to employment, alongside upside risks to inflation stemming from higher energy prices and tensions in the Middle East.
Jefferson added that businesses had become more hesitant to hire and warned that employment risks had risen alongside inflation risks linked to higher energy costs. Nevertheless, he argued that policy remained “well positioned” to support employment while inflation stayed above target.
New York Fed’s John Williams speaking on 4 May said that labour market signals were “mixed”.
Currently, on the whole, policymakers do not appear to see sufficient deterioration to prioritise rate cuts over inflation concerns yet.