US Briefing - Friday 16.10
Headlines
  • Fed Rate Hold Bets Strengthen Following Fed Chair Comments
  • Fed's Hammack: Inflation Exp Deterioration Could Require Response
  • Lutnick Throws The Future Of US-Mexico Trade Talks Into Further Doubt
  • BoE Governor Says Too Early To Judge Second-Round Inflation Effects
  • ECB's Nagel Says He Can't Exclude Further Rate Hikes
  • UK Banks Warn Healey's Planned Tax Increase Could Weigh On Growth
  • BoJ Chief Flags Inflation Overshoot Risk, Stresses 2% Anchor
  • Japan To Sidestep 3.5% Defence Spending Target Despite US Pressure
  • S.Korea Weighs Expanding Naval Mission To Gulf Of Oman
  • Tesla Unveils Next Generation Roadster Sports EV With SpaceX Thrusters
  • Microsoft’s Mai-Base-2 Beat GPT 5.6 Sol Using A Quarter Of Compute Power
  • Anthropic Secured Highest Junk Credit Rating In June
  • Germany Set To Announce Agreement With Nvidia Next Week
  • Order To Limit Starshield For Ukraine Came From Inside White House
  • UK Regulator Targets Microsoft's Grip On Business Software Market
  • Schneider Raises Guidance Again On Surging Data-Centre Demand
  • China Moves To Support Stock Market With Selling Curbs And Buybacks
  • China Adds AI, Biopharma And Solar Technology To Export Control List
  • Taiwan To Curb AI Chip Exports To China As Part Of US Trade Deal
Commentary
Fed's Warsh Sees US Resilience, Mum On Rate-Path View

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh voiced optimism on Friday about US economic strength and surprise about how well global economies have been "hanging in there" amid continued energy shocks and tighter monetary policy to fight inflation.

He said the US and many other economies were benefiting from an "investment surge" driven by artificial intelligence but broadening to other sectors that was creating a near-term demand shock that was putting upward pressure on inflation.

"I came out of meetings here yesterday and today and it's hard to be in a discussion with central bankers and not compare notes and hear the same thing about the surge in prices," Warsh said at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. (RTRS – Continue Reading)

BoE Gov: Too Early To Make Call On Second-Round Inflation

The UK has felt the first round of inflationary impact from war in the Middle East in higher energy prices. The question for the Bank of England is whether that is passing through into broader price growth, Gov. Andrew Bailey said Friday.

Inflation in the UK is above the central bank’s target but it is too early to tell if that is spilling over into indirect and second-round effects, Bailey said.

“To the extent we have seen evidence, it’s quite subdued,” he said at the Institute of International Finance’s annual membership meeting in Bangkok. (WSJ – Continue Reading)

UK Banks Warn Healey’s Tax Plan Will Curtail Economic Growth

The UK’s banking industry has ramped up lobbying against extra taxes planned by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey, warning that a hike could shrink economic output by £6 billion ($8 billion) over five years and hit areas outside London the hardest.

Pushing a surcharge banks pay on top of a standard corporation tax to 8% from 3% would also cut lending by about £10 billion by 2029 and reduce investment into the UK, according to a letter sent earlier this week to Healey by David Postings, chief of industry lobby group UK Finance. (BBG – Continue Reading)

Blue Owl’s Clarke Plays Down Software Risks, Touts Data Centres

Blue Owl Capital Inc. is well positioned to withstand AI-driven disruption in the software industry and investor concerns about private credit have been overblown, according to the firm’s global head of institutional capital.

“There is no doubt going to be disruption” in the software sector, James Clarke said in an interview in Tokyo on Friday. “But what I can tell you is the software we focus on is highly differentiated.”

Clarke’s comments come as Blue Owl has been grappling with elevated redemption requests at some of its private credit funds. Some investors have sought to exit the asset class on concerns about the quality of loans, including to program developers that face competition from advances in artificial intelligence. (BBG – Continue Reading)

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/*jshint esversion: 6 */ var socket; var assigned_server = 3001; var distributor_server = 3010; var publisher_channel = ''; var broadcaster_channel = ''; var remote_ip = ''; var session_info = {}; var logging_interval; var logging_interval_time = 120000; var socket_emits = 0; var session_start_time; var reconnectionDelayGrowFactor = 1.2; var reconnection_delay = 1000; var playing = false; var connected_to_assigned = false; var socket_close_timeout; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay = 1500; var player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; const TOKEN_ENDPOINT = "https://www.livesquawk.com/api/get_token.php"; self.onmessage = function (msg) { switch(msg.data.action) { case 'Reactivate': reactivate(); break; case 'ConnectDistributor': connect_to_distributor(msg); break; case 'SessionStaticInfo': session_static_info(msg); break; case 'SessionInfo': update_session_info(msg.data); break; case 'PauseLogging': clearTimeout(logging_interval); break; case 'RestartLogging': postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionStaticInfo' }); break; case 'JoinPublisherChannel': join_publisher_channel(msg.data); break; case 'JoinPlayerChannel': join_player_channel(msg.data); break; case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerLogResponse': player_log_response(msg.data); break; case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break; case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break; case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break; case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutClear': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear(); break; case 'GetConnectionState': checkSocketConnectionState(); break; } }; function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_clear() { clearTimeout(player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout); player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = null; } function player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start() { player_disconnected_annoucement_play_timeout = setTimeout(function() { send_play_disconnect_annoucement(); }, player_disconnected_annoucement_play_delay ); } function send_play_disconnect_annoucement() { postMessage({action: "PlayDisconnectAnnoucement"}); } function reactivate() { playing = false; connect_to_assigned_server(); } function player_log_response(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'PlayerLogResponse'; data_array.respond_to_socket_final = data.respond_to_socket_final; data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket; data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id; data_array.logs = data.logs; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_message_search(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_message_search'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.search_term = data.search_term; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function request_more_messages(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_more_messages'; data_array.publisher_channel = data.publisher_channel; data_array.last_record_id = data.last_record_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function check_channel_status(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'check_channel_status'; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1 && connected_to_assigned) { socket.send(msg_string); } else { setTimeout(function() { check_channel_status(data); },500); } } function check_channel_status_response(data) { postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected }); } async function join_publisher_channel(data) { if (typeof data.jwt_token === 'string' && data.jwt_token !== '') { if (!socket || socket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN) { console.warn("[Page worker] JWT join skipped: socket not open"); return; } socket.send(JSON.stringify({ type: "join_publisher_channel", jwt_token: data.jwt_token, publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel, username: data.username, subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group, display_name: data.display_name, single_sign_on: data.single_sign_on, remote_ip: data.remote_ip, http_referrer: data.http_referrer, current_page: data.current_page, php_session_id: data.php_session_id, from_react: data.from_react, ...(typeof data.api_key === "string" && data.api_key.trim() !== "" ? { api_key: data.api_key } : {}), })); console.log("[Page worker] Sent supplied JWT join"); postMessage({ action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' }); return; } const joinSocket = socket; if (!joinSocket || joinSocket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN) { return; } const apiKey = typeof data.api_key === "string" ? data.api_key.trim() : ""; const partnerName = partnerFromCurrentPage(data.current_page); let tokenBody; if (apiKey !== "") { tokenBody = { api_key: apiKey }; } else if (partnerName) { tokenBody = { partner_name: partnerName }; } else { tokenBody = { username: data.username || "", publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel || "", }; } let jwtToken = null; try { const requestStartedAt = Date.now(); const response = await fetch(TOKEN_ENDPOINT, { method: "POST", headers: { "Content-Type": "application/json" }, body: JSON.stringify(tokenBody), credentials: "same-origin", cache: "no-store", }); if (!response.ok) { throw new Error(`token endpoint returned ${response.status}`); } const tokenData = await response.json(); if ( !tokenData || typeof tokenData.token !== "string" || tokenData.token === "" ) { throw new Error("token endpoint returned no token"); } const expiresIn = Number(tokenData.expires_in); if (!Number.isFinite(expiresIn) || expiresIn <= 0) { throw new Error("token endpoint returned an invalid lifetime"); } const expiresAt = requestStartedAt + (expiresIn * 1000); if (expiresAt <= Date.now() + 30000) { throw new Error("token response has insufficient remaining lifetime"); } jwtToken = tokenData.token; } catch (error) { console.warn("[Page worker] Token request failed", error); // API-key requests must not silently bypass token authentication. if (apiKey !== "") { postMessage({ action: "auth_failed" }); return; } } // A reconnect during the fetch makes this join attempt obsolete. if ( socket !== joinSocket || joinSocket.readyState !== WebSocket.OPEN ) { return; } const payload = { type: "join_publisher_channel", publisher_channel: data.publisher_channel, username: data.username, subscriber_group: data.subscriber_group, display_name: data.display_name, single_sign_on: data.single_sign_on, remote_ip: data.remote_ip, http_referrer: data.http_referrer, current_page: data.current_page, php_session_id: data.php_session_id, from_react: data.from_react, }; if (apiKey !== "") { payload.api_key = apiKey; } if (jwtToken) { payload.jwt_token = jwtToken; } console.log( jwtToken ? "[Page worker] Sending fetched JWT with legacy details" : "[Page worker] Sending legacy join without JWT" ); joinSocket.send(JSON.stringify(payload)); postMessage({ action: "PublisherChannelJoined" }); } function partnerFromCurrentPage(current_page) { try { if (!current_page) return ''; const fullUrl = current_page.startsWith('http') ? current_page : `https://${current_page}`; return new URL(fullUrl).searchParams.get('partner_name') || ''; } catch (e) { return ''; } } function session_static_info(msg) { set_static_session_info(msg.data); start_log(); } function connect_to_distributor(msg) { publisher_channel = msg.data.publisher_channel; remote_ip = msg.data.remote_ip; socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+distributor_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); switch(data.type) { case 'server_assignment_response': server_assignment_response(data); break; } }; } function session_info_interval() { postMessage({action: 'RequestSessionInfo' }); logging_interval = setTimeout(session_info_interval,logging_interval_time); } function server_assignment_response(data) { assigned_server = data.selected_server; socket.close(); connect_to_assigned_server(); } function request_server_assignment() { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'request_server_assignment'; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function connect_to_assigned_server() { socket = new WebSocket("wss://ws.livesquawk.com/ws"+assigned_server); socket.onopen = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server }); console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server); postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' }); connected_to_assigned = true; if (playing) { postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' }); } }; socket.onmessage = function(event) { var msg_string = event.data.toString(); var data = JSON.parse(msg_string); if (data.type != 'server_ping') { /* console.log(data.type); */ } switch(data.type) { case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break; case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break; case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break; case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break; case 'application_refresh_stop': application_refresh_stop(data); break; case 'player_log_request': case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break; case 'PlayerLogRequest': case 'new_tweet': case 'new_latest_news': case 'delete_report': case 'add_report': case 'add_ref_doc': case 'calendar_change': case 'calendar_insert': case 'calendar_delete': case 'new_note': case 'AppStart': case 'AppStop': case 'BroadcasterStarted': case 'BroadcasterStopped': case 'added_cme_report': case 'updated_cme_report': case 'added_cme_commentary': case 'updated_cme_commentary': case 'server_assignment_response': case 'initial_messages': case 'message_categories': case 'more_messages': case 'matched_messages': pass_straight_to_post_message(data); break; case 'output': case 'server_ping': case 'reconnect': case 'disconnect': break; } }; socket.onerror = function(event) { postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "LS Socket Error" + event.type }); console.log(event); postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' }); }; socket.onclose = function(event) { console.log('Socket is closed. Reconnect will be attempted in 1 second.', event.reason); socket_close_timeout = setTimeout(connect_to_assigned_server, reconnection_delay); reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor; connected_to_assigned = false; }; } function checkSocketConnectionState() { postMessage({ action: 'SocketConnectionState', connected: Boolean(socket && socket.readyState === WebSocket.OPEN && connected_to_assigned ), }); } function close_socket() { clearTimeout(socket_close_timeout); socket_close_timeout = null; socket.onclose = function(event) {}; socket.onmessage = function(event) {}; socket.onerror = function(event) {}; socket.close(1000); console.log('Socket Closed'); } function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) { data.action = data.type; postMessage(data); } function join_player_channel(data) { var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'join_player_channel'; data_array.player_channel = data.player_channel; data_array.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; data_array.username = data.username; data_array.app_name = data.app_name; data_array.onair_status = data.onair_status; data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; data_array.current_page = data.current_page; data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } postMessage({action: 'PlayerChannelJoined' }); playing = true; } function start_log_response(data) { session_info.session_id = data.log_record_id; session_info_interval(); } function application_refresh_start(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStart' }); } } function application_refresh_stop(data) { if (data.app_name == session_info.application_name) { postMessage({action: 'ApplicationRefreshStop' }); } } function set_static_session_info(data) { session_info.browser_codename = data.browser_codename; session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name; session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent; session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version; session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled; session_info.platform = data.platform; session_info.player_version = data.player_version; session_info.stream = data.stream; session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol; session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target; session_info.session_email = data.session_email; session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip; session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id; session_info.application_name = data.application_name; session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer; } function start_log() { var session_start_date = new Date(); session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime(); var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec']; var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear(); var data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log'; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.username = session_info.session_email; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.webrtc_protocol = ''; data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0); data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream; data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string; var msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } function update_session_info(data) { var data_array = {}; var msg_string = ''; var current_date = new Date(); var current_time = current_date.getTime(); session_info.protocol = data.protocol; session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2); session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time; session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time; session_info.jitter = data.jitter; session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss; session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency; session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score; session_info.restarts = data.restarts; if (socket_emits == 0) { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data_full'; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.browser_codename = session_info.browser_codename; data_array.browser_name = session_info.browser_name; data_array.user_agent = session_info.user_agent; data_array.browser_version = session_info.browser_version; data_array.cookies_enabled = session_info.cookies_enabled; data_array.platform = session_info.platform; data_array.player_version = session_info.player_version; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.delay_target = 0; data_array.op_sys = ''; data_array.flash_version = ''; data_array.remote_ip = session_info.remote_ip; data_array.http_referrer = session_info.http_referrer; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } else { data_array = {}; data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data'; data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id; data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id; data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts; data_array.threshold = 0; data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay; data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length; data_array.date = current_time; data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol; data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time; data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter; data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss; data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency; data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score; data_array.stream = session_info.stream; msg_string = JSON.stringify(data_array); if (socket.readyState == 1) { socket.send(msg_string); } } socket_emits++; if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; } }